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独家洞察 | 镜像走势:私募信贷和私募房地产投资的二十年何以步调一致?
慧甚FactSet· 2025-11-24 06:51
Core Insights - The article focuses on the synchronized performance of private credit and private real estate over the past two decades, highlighting the importance of analyzing their consistent trends [1][6]. Fundraising Comparison - A comparison of fundraising activities between credit and real estate funds from 2000 to 2022 in North America, Western Europe, and globally shows that both strategies have exhibited a high degree of consistency in fundraising amounts [3][6]. - The most notable divergence occurred in 2016, where credit fundraising exceeded real estate by $14 billion, while the difference between the two strategies generally remained within a $4 billion range [6]. Market Preferences - Despite the consistent fundraising trends, real estate has been more favored, with real estate fundraising exceeding credit in 14 out of the past 22 years [6]. - The analysis indicates that real estate represents a larger and more stable market within private investments, particularly highlighted during the financial/mortgage crisis in the late 2000s when real estate fundraising hit a low point [6]. Investment Overlap - There exists a significant overlap in investment areas between the two strategies, as indicated by the "credit-real estate" intersection in the Cobalt database, where both strategies often engage in similar projects or transactions [6]. Future Outlook - Preliminary data for 2023-2025 suggests that the fundraising trend will continue, with annual fundraising amounts for both strategies not differing by more than $300 million [7]. - Given over 20 years of historical data, this trend is expected to remain reliable and persist under various economic conditions, including changes in interest rates or inflation [7].