文｜康路 "城堡投资的肯·格里芬觉得黄金如今比美元更安全。你同意吗？" "是的。当然。" 2025年10月7日，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人达利 欧（Ray Dalio）在格林尼治经济论坛发言时表示，在政府债务负担加重时期，黄金成为关 键保值手段。 "现在的时代非常像70年代初。"达利欧指出。20 世纪 70 年代，通胀高企和政府债务压 力，削弱了投资人对美元的信心。 投资人应比平时持有更多黄金 达利欧建议，投资者在资产配置中应持有约15%的黄金比例，以应对未来货币体系潜在的 贬值与信用风险。他表示，"黄金在其他资产下跌时表现良好。" 达利欧回忆起1971 年 8 月，当尼克松宣布美元和黄金脱钩时的情景，"我在纽约证券交易 所当实习生。我以为股市会暴跌，结果相反。股市大涨。这让我去研究历史，结果发现 1933 年罗斯福也做过同样的事。通过贬值货币重启经济。这让我明白，我们习惯从货币角 度看世界，但实际上货币本身也在波动。黄金作为真实价值的储藏手段，依旧有它的逻 辑。"演讲当日，黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司，今年以来涨幅超过50%。 达利欧并不是近期唯一一个 ...

曾因精准做空能源巨头安然（Enron）而一战成名的华尔街传奇空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos），如今盯上了一个2万亿美元规模的庞大市 场——私募信贷（Private Credit）。 在他看来，当下蓬勃发展的私募信贷市场，其运作模式与引爆2008年全球金融危机的次级抵押贷款如出一辙。两者最大的共同点在 于"资金来源和最终使用之间存在多层结构"，这种复杂性掩盖了真实风险。 查诺斯将其形容为一个"神奇的机器"：机构投资者将资金投入其中，通过承担优先债务的风险敞口，却能获得堪比股权投资的回报 率。 "这种看似安全的投资所提供的高收益，本身就应该是第一个危险信号，"查诺斯表示。 他认为，这种高收益并非源于价值创造，而是源于精心设计的复杂结构。与2008年的次贷危机类似，风险被隐藏在"资金来源和使用 之间的多层结构"中。资金经过层层打包与转手，最终的贷款人与实际的借款人之间被多个中介隔开，导致底层资产的真实风险变得 模糊不清。 一个极具说服力的例证是，据行业相关媒体报道，一些私募信贷基金经理曾乐观预计，在First Brands本应相对安全的有担保库存债务 上，回报率竟可能超过50%。 近期，美国汽车零部件制造商Fir ...

Core Viewpoint - The private credit market is experiencing significant yield advantages, prompting global investors to shift from public markets to private market allocations [1][2]. Group 1: Yield Advantage - Private credit offers a yield premium of 150-200 basis points over high-yield and investment-grade bonds, making it an attractive investment opportunity for global clients [2][3]. - The spread on corporate bonds has narrowed to its lowest level since the late 1990s, providing a clear relative value advantage for private markets [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - U.S. insurance companies allocate 35%-40% of their balance sheets to private credit, while Asian insurance companies only allocate about 5%, indicating substantial growth potential in the latter market [1][2]. - The next wave of incremental funding in private credit is expected to come from large institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, which have a natural demand for high-yield, low-volatility private credit assets [2][3]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Demand - The demand for AI infrastructure is a key driver of growth in the private credit market, with significant financing needs projected for data centers and other hard assets [3][4]. - JPMorgan estimates that approximately $150 billion in permanent financing will be required for U.S. data center construction between 2026 and 2027, creating substantial opportunities for private lenders [4]. Group 4: M&A Activity and Market Dynamics - The revival of M&A activity is expected to create further opportunities for private lending institutions, with predictions of active deal-making in the fourth quarter [5]. - Despite concerns about sustainability in the private credit market, the overall default rate among non-investment-grade borrowers remains low, indicating strong underlying fundamentals [5].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the increasing wealth disparity, where the rich continue to get richer while the poor struggle to improve their circumstances [2] - Tony Robbins' new book "Smart Money" provides insights into why the wealthy are becoming wealthier, detailing seven alternative investment strategies that lead to excess returns [3][31] - The book serves as a comprehensive guide for different investment groups, covering various investment strategies from entry-level to advanced [3][31] Group 2 - Investing in GP equity allows wealthy individuals to gain continuous cash flow and asymmetric risk/return profiles, as they benefit from the overall profits of multiple funds [4][5] - The number of high-quality private equity firms is limited, making GP equity a rare opportunity typically available only to long-term partners [6] - The average price of NBA teams has increased by 1057% from 2002 to 2021, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index during the same period [8] Group 3 - Private credit has become an attractive investment for wealthy individuals, especially during economic downturns, as it offers higher returns compared to traditional bonds [11][12] - The energy sector is expected to present significant investment opportunities due to rising demand and the shift towards clean energy [14][15] - Private real estate investments have historically provided tax benefits and are currently seen as attractive due to discounted prices in a volatile market [21][24] Group 4 - The private secondary market for investments has gained popularity, allowing buyers to acquire stakes at discounted prices while providing liquidity to sellers [26][27] - The book "Smart Money" compiles insights from 13 successful investors in various alternative investment fields, offering strategies for achieving substantial returns [31][32]

Group 1 - The private credit market, valued at $1.7 trillion, is facing a surge in default warnings, with analysts concerned that the actual default rate may be significantly underestimated [1][2] - According to a report by JPMorgan, if non-accrual loans are included, the default rate in the private credit market has risen to 5.4%, comparable to the broader syndicated loan market [1][2] - Analysts warn that years of rapid fundraising in private credit funds have led to relaxed underwriting standards, which could result in excessive losses during an economic downturn [1][3] Group 2 - The definition of default in the private credit market is inconsistent, with current reported default rates ranging from 2% to 3%. However, including non-accrual loans raises the rate to 5.4% [2] - The "shadow default rate," which considers "bad" in-kind payments as part of total investments, reached 6% in Q2, significantly higher than 2% in 2021 [2] - Analysts agree on the upward trend in defaults, despite differences in specific data, indicating a growing concern in the market [3] Group 3 - The influx of capital into the private credit asset class has led to a rapid allocation of funds, resulting in compromised underwriting processes, which may lead to greater losses in a downturn [3] - Private companies and lenders are using in-kind payment arrangements to avoid cash defaults, allowing borrowers to defer cash interest payments until maturity, ultimately leading to larger liabilities [3] - The ability of private credit funds to attract capital is diminishing, as they are no longer the strong magnet for investment they once were, despite still offering returns above 8% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The private credit market, valued at $1.7 trillion, is facing increasing default warnings, raising concerns among analysts about the underestimated risks in one of Wall Street's most profitable businesses [1] Group 1: Default Rates and Market Conditions - The current default rate in the private credit market is between 2% and 3%, but when including "non-accrual loans," the rate rises to 5.4%, which is comparable to the syndicated loan market [1] - The official default rate for private credit increased from 2.9% to 3.4% in the second quarter, while the "shadow default rate" reached 6%, significantly higher than 2% in 2021 [4] - Analysts from various firms note that the concentration of low credit rating borrowers and rising recent default rates indicate ongoing challenges in the market [5] Group 2: Investment Trends and Fundraising - Despite a slowdown in fundraising, private credit funds still attract investors with returns exceeding 8%, although the amount raised this year is only $70 billion, the smallest share of alternative asset inflows since at least 2015 [1] - Analysts express concerns that rapid capital commitments may lead to lower underwriting standards, which could amplify losses during economic downturns [1] Group 3: Borrower Behavior and Risk Management - Borrowers are utilizing arrangements that allow them to defer cash interest payments until debt maturity, which can mask default risks [4] - The reputation of private credit for low default rates is based on narrow definitions of default, and if broader definitions are applied, the actual rate of non-compliance would be significantly higher [4] - Different credit rating agencies and consulting firms monitor borrower groups differently, complicating the overall market assessment [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Some market participants remain optimistic, citing that declining interest rates alleviate pressure on highly leveraged companies, and the interest coverage ratio within loan portfolios remains healthy [8] - The sentiment suggests that robust companies with strong cash flows can withstand current interest rate levels [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the massive capital expenditure by major tech companies on AI infrastructure, exceeding $250 billion in 2024, with a projected total investment of $2.9 trillion over the next four years [1][2] - There exists a significant funding gap of approximately $1.5 trillion in AI-related investments, indicating that major companies can only cover about half of their needs, necessitating external financing [2][3] - Private credit is emerging as a key source of funding to fill this gap, as traditional banks are increasingly reluctant to lend for long-term, asset-heavy AI projects [4] Investment Landscape - The private credit market has seen rapid growth, expanding from $1 trillion in 2020 to an estimated $1.5 trillion in 2024, with projections to exceed $2.6 trillion by 2029 [3][5] - Investors are attracted to private credit due to its higher yields, often exceeding 10%, compared to traditional bank deposits [5] - Asset-backed financing (ABF) is particularly appealing for AI data center projects, allowing for flexible financing options even during early project stages [5] Corporate Financing Strategies - Major tech companies like Google and Amazon have the capacity to issue up to $600 billion in debt without affecting their credit ratings, but they prefer to limit debt issuance to avoid shareholder concerns about excessive spending [6] - Companies are strategically using their cash reserves and limited debt to fund initial investments in AI infrastructure, planning to seek additional financing once these investments yield returns [6] Energy Consumption Concerns - The energy consumption of global data centers is projected to reach 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, accounting for 1.5% of global electricity use, with expectations to double by 2030 [7][4] - Major tech firms are exploring renewable energy solutions to mitigate the high energy demands of AI operations, including significant contracts for renewable energy and acquisitions of energy facilities [7][6] Long-term Investment Trends - Institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are increasingly investing in AI infrastructure due to its potential for stable cash flows and inflation protection, with expected annual returns of 7-9% over the long term [8] - These investors prioritize projects that demonstrate certainty in growth, policy support, and environmental sustainability, particularly those with ESG credentials [9] Risks and Challenges - Investors face risks related to economic slowdowns, which could lead to reduced risk appetite and a preference for more liquid assets, potentially impacting private credit markets [10] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization could disrupt financing expectations, especially if tech companies cut capital expenditures [10] - Practical challenges, such as securing land permits and connecting to power grids, can hinder project progress and investor confidence [10] Conclusion - The article emphasizes the explosive growth in capital investment for AI infrastructure, the significant funding gap, and the role of private credit in addressing this gap [12] - It also highlights the importance of understanding the underlying dynamics of this investment landscape, including energy consumption and the need for strategic risk management [12]

Asseto是一家专注于真实世界资产(RWA)代币化的金融科技公司，目前在亚洲代币化市场中处于领先地 位，其致力于透过机构级代币化技术及传统金融(TradFi)与去中心化金融(DeFi)的深度融合，打造新一 代链上资产平台。Asseto以现金管理类RWA为切入点，持续拓展至更广泛的产品线，包括基金、债券、 股票、私募信贷、房地产及各类另类资产等，以实现收入来源的多样化与规模化。作为HashKey集团的 战略合作伙伴，Asseto已建立强大的战略行业合作网络，包括两家准备递交香港稳定币牌照申请的企 业。Asseto拥有一支顶尖、经验丰富且多元化的团队，核心成员来自全球领先的传统金融机构及Web3 项目，兼具TradFi与DeFi的专长。随着稳定币应用趋势的持续推进，Asseto的总锁定价值(TVL)预计将 持续增长，有望成为亚洲领先的Web3企业之一。 认购事项为实现集团战略目标的重要里程碑。透过投资及与Asseto合作，公司能够把握机会，涉足快速 增长的市场，并率先接触区块链及智能合约的先进技术，以期于全球转型其资产管理业务，并扩展其产 品╱服务组合。尤其是，Asseto与领先企业(如HashKey集团及主要 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income and Cash Allocation - Global asset allocators plan to increase allocations to fixed income and cash in response to ongoing economic uncertainty and market volatility [1][2] - Over 60% of Asian fund managers intend to increase holdings in government and investment-grade bonds, while the appeal of equities is declining [1] - 43% of global fund managers expect higher returns from fixed income, with 37% planning to increase allocations during the anticipated rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Alternative Investments - There is a divide in risk appetite among fund managers, with 32% planning to increase risk exposure and 40% expecting to reduce it [2] - Despite a slowdown compared to the previous year, demand for alternative investments like private equity and private credit remains strong, with a net 22% of fund managers planning to increase allocations to private credit [2] - In Asia, over two-thirds of fund managers prefer direct and co-investments in private markets, reflecting a desire for greater control in a cautious market environment [2] Group 3: Equity Market Sentiment - Global asset allocators are less optimistic about equities compared to fixed income, with 45% expecting public equity returns to decline over the next 12 months [3] - Despite this, 34% of allocators plan to increase public equity allocations, with a focus on global equity strategies [3] - 73% of Asian fund managers anticipate increasing allocations to artificial intelligence, indicating strong investment demand in transformative technology sectors [3] Group 4: Real Estate Preferences - More than half of asset allocators expect no change in their real estate allocation over the next 12 months, with 20% intending to increase their allocations [4] - Asian fund managers favor investments in industrial and logistics facilities, as well as senior housing, while 62% see data centers as attractive investment opportunities [4] - The research reflects a contradictory viewpoint among asset allocators, who recognize the need to address rising risks but are not retreating, instead adjusting strategies to navigate prolonged uncertainty [4]

Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale tariffs by Trump has led to a significant slowdown in the IPO market, with reports indicating it is "almost at a standstill" [1][6] - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to alternative investments for yield, with BlackRock setting a fundraising target of $400 billion for its private equity business by 2030, aiming to increase its revenue share from 15% to over 30% [2] - Coller Capital's report indicates that most investors plan to increase allocations to private credit and secondary market assets in the coming year, driven by structural growth factors [2][3] Group 2 - Private credit is the most favored asset class among investors in the alternative asset space, with 45% planning to increase allocations, up from 37% six months ago [3] - Geopolitical risks are now a core consideration for portfolio construction, with 44% of investors increasing their focus on these risks, particularly regional conflicts and trade wars [3] - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in investment portfolio management is becoming a significant trend, with 90% of U.S. investors planning to leverage AI for value addition [4] Group 3 - Traditional exit channels are facing liquidity challenges, prompting over half of global investors to consider trading private equity assets in the secondary market within the next two years [5] - The total transaction volume in the global secondary market is projected to reach $160 billion in 2024, while IPO exits are expected to generate only $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, significantly lower than the $600 billion in 2021 [5] - The current environment has led private equity executives to prioritize alternative exit strategies, such as divestitures and continuation funds, with 80% of top fund managers entering the continuation fund market [6]