AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 曾一度失宠的经典投资策略正重新吸引市场目光。传统的60/40投资组合——即60%配置股票、40%配置 债券的平衡型基金——在多年零利率环境导致固定收益资产吸引力下降后，逐渐受到散户投资者冷落。 尤其是2022年，股市与债市同步下跌，这种本应具备低相关性、兼顾增长与风险对冲功能的平衡策略声 誉受损，投资者对其信心更是大打折扣。 但如今，部分市场人士认为，是时候重新调整这一策略了。2025年，安硕核心美国综合债券交易型开放 式指数基金（iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF，代码AGG）取得了7.2%的总回报率，创下2020 年以来的最佳表现。 这一结果向投资者证明，投资组合中的固定收益部分，除了发挥防御作用外，也能开始积极贡献收益。 "我认为，我们有时会忘记，当美联储开启一轮长期降息周期时，固定收益市场会浮现出怎样的机 遇。"奥赛克公司（Osaic）首席市场策略师菲利普・布兰卡托（Philip Blancato）表示，"所以不管你信 不信，我认为这套老旧、乏味的60/40策略，正因为债券的潜在回报，变得重新有吸引力起来。 ...

Core Insights - The global alternative investment landscape is evolving towards a "public-private convergence" era by 2026, characterized by the expansion of private markets, diversification of asset classes, and structural opportunities driven by technology and macro trends [1][9][12]. Private Market Growth - The private market asset size is nearing USD 20 trillion, with private credit growing from USD 250 billion in 2007 to USD 2.5 trillion today, highlighting its significance in the global financial system [1][11]. - Private credit is projected to reach USD 3.5 trillion by 2029, with deepening integration between public and private credit markets [3]. Real Estate Trends - A durable recovery in global commercial real estate (CRE) is anticipated for 2026, with equity yields expected to surpass debt yields, driven by lower interest rates and economic expansion [43][54]. - High-quality assets are predicted to outperform across all sectors, while the office sector is experiencing uneven recovery, with prime locations showing low vacancy rates and strong rental growth [43][44]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is at a structural growth inflection point, driven by energy demand, security, and transition factors, with capital expenditures expected to exceed depreciation for the first time [1][11]. - Energy utility companies are positioned to benefit from existing generation and transmission assets, combining defensive characteristics with growth potential [1]. Transportation Assets - Transportation assets are benefiting from a USD 3.5 trillion asset replacement cycle and evolving trade patterns, with strong demand for modern, efficient transport assets across maritime, aviation, and rail sectors [2]. Timberland and Hedge Funds - Timberland assets are gaining attention for their inflation resistance and stable cash flows, supported by improving housing affordability and the development of carbon credit markets [2]. - Hedge funds are entering a "renaissance period" for alpha generation, capitalizing on increased market volatility and the integration of AI into investment processes [2][34]. Private Equity Dynamics - The private equity market is returning to normalization, with improved fundraising environments and active transaction levels, particularly in the small and mid-market segments [2][34]. - AI and healthcare are emerging as core innovation sectors, with private markets becoming central to value creation [2][34].

中信证券研报称，美国私募信贷市场的违约态势呈现结构性分化特征，中型企业风险可控但小微企业已 显危机征兆。截至今年10月底私募信贷领域违约率维持在5.2%的水平，中型企业私募信贷违约率持续 上扬，至10月末已攀升至3.2%的阶段性高点，而EBITDA低于2500万美元的小型借款人违约率则高达 11.7%。因此我们判断，未来美国私募信贷市场存在再次爆发尾部违约风险的可能性。此外，未来三年 内，美国私募信贷市场存量资产将迎来集中兑付期，或将推动市场加速进入再融资需求显著增长的结构 性窗口阶段。若未来小型企业私募信贷再融资受阻引发违约潮，并形成风险传导链，则可能直接冲击美 国保险机构持有的私募信贷资产组合。鉴于私募信贷市场缺乏流动性充裕的直接信用违约互换工具， CDX NA HY及其波动率相关资产或可作为对冲私募信贷市场风险的替代性选择。因此，在保持对存在 风险敞口的保险机构及商业发展公司（BDC）审慎态度的同时，或许可通过配置北美高收益债指数的 信用利差来对冲私募信贷潜在系统性崩塌会引发的估值联动冲击。 ...

宏观经济：宏观稳态、结构分化与科创突进 岁末年初，中央经济工作会议召开定调明年经济，海外美联储降息潮后催化全球资产配置再平衡。 2026年新历将至之际，12月19日，招商基金召开2026年度内部投资策略会，汇聚内外部投研力量， 围绕宏观经济和投资策略进行展望，并就AI科技和周期地产等重点关注方向剖析细分赛道机遇与挑 战。 回顾2 0 2 5年经济增长表现，前三个季度GDP累计同比5 . 2%超过5%目标。招商基金研究部 首 席 经 济 学 家 李 湛 认 为 ， " 两 新 两 重 " 政 策 使 内 需 体 现 出 引 擎 作 用 ， 消 费 与 制 造 业 投 资 对 GDP增长形成支撑，净出口对GDP增长拉动仅次于消费。流动性总体充裕、结构分化，近 三年通胀也稳定在低位水平，政策目标以稳为主和经济结构转变共同造就"新稳态"：过去 三年GDP增速目标保持在5%左右，标志着中国经济调控思路从"增量追赶"转向了"质稳量 优"的成熟阶段。 中国经济当前主线更多在于经济转型，即经济动能转向更多由消费和科 技创新共同驱动，在"稳规模"的同时更聚焦"调结构"，为中长期高质量发展夯实基础。 第二重是全球配置多元化，对冲 ...

（原标题：瑭明家办郭兴业：另类投资成家办新宠，家族传承需解代际思维差） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 谢巧云 香港报道 另类投资为何在家庭资产配置中占比持续攀升？创一代与二代在投资理念上存在哪些本质差异？家族财 富传承过程中最常见的误区是什么？近日，21世纪经济报道记者在2025湾区财富大会上专访了瑭明家族 办公室联合创始人、香港家族办公室协会副主席郭兴业，深入探讨另类投资趋势与家族财富传承新挑 战。 近年来，另类投资在家族办公室配置中的占比正显著提升。根据瑞银发布的《2024年全球家族办公室报 告》，家族办公室正显著加大对私募信贷的投资力度。报告数据显示，私募信贷在其投资组合中的平均 配置比例已从2023年的2%翻倍增长至2024年的4%，成为增长最快的资产类别。 此外，高达46%的受访 家族办公室计划在未来五年内继续增加对私募信贷的投资，这一比例远超其他资产类别，清晰地表明了 他们将资金从传统投资和其他另类资产转向私募债权的战略趋势。 郭兴业认为这源于投资理念的根本转变。高净值人群不再局限于传统配置方式，更注重通过多元资产类 别实现分散配置目标。在具体标的选择上，前五年私募股权备受关注， ...

Core Viewpoint - The era of easy profits for yield-seeking investors is gradually coming to an end as traditional safe assets are providing diminishing returns, prompting a shift towards riskier investments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - Conservative investors have enjoyed substantial returns in recent years, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5%, marking a departure from the near-zero interest rates of the past decade [1]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, which will further reduce yields below post-pandemic highs, creating a challenging environment for yield-focused portfolios [1][2]. - The MSCI global index shows that global stock dividend yields are near their lowest levels since 2002, and investment-grade credit spreads are only slightly above multi-decade lows, indicating limited room for error if economic conditions worsen [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly relying on timing and independent judgment rather than central bank signals, leading to a preference for short-term bonds [2]. - Institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are looking at high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, and securitized investments to enhance returns and diversify risk [2]. - Private credit has attracted significant capital as a diversification tool, with expectations that funds seeking yield will increase their allocation to private markets [2][3]. Group 3: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The pursuit of yield continues, with a notable shift towards high-volatility assets driven by the AI boom and a resurgence in risk appetite [3]. - Catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities are gaining institutional demand due to their low correlation with market risks, with new funds like the Victory Pioneer catastrophe bond fund attracting $1.6 billion in assets [3]. - The ability of equities to provide yield is diminishing, as rising stock prices, particularly in tech, are compressing global stock dividend yields, and companies are increasingly favoring stock buybacks over dividends [3][4]. Group 4: Tactical Opportunities - Despite a tightening global yield environment, there are exceptions such as rising expectations for further rate hikes in Australia due to persistent inflation [5]. - Analysts indicate that the declining U.S. Treasury yields and near-historical low credit spreads are pushing investors towards the risk curve for marginal returns [5].

点燃这场风波的是 "22万科MTN004"债券。这只债起息日是2022年12月15日，票面利率3%，规模20亿元，期限3年。如今万科向持有人提出，本金和利息 整体往后顺延一年。 这是万科债券兑付史上出现首次展期。 随后，多只万科债券单日跌幅超过20%，触发交易所临时停牌，而在接下来的几天内从90元附近价格暴跌至20元左右。 国际评级机构标普将万科的主体信用评级从"BB+"一次性下调至"CCC-"。截至2023年三季度，万科账上的有息负债规模约为3200亿元，且面临盈利下滑 的压力。 更为市场所关注的是，股东"输血"有上限，不能指望无限兜底。 过去一周多，万科展期引发万科债券集体暴跌。 一家债券私募机构在感恩节前紧急完成展期资产的估值调整，也导致今年大部分收益被吞噬殆尽。 如果把视线拉远，这种"自以为安全、实则安全垫不足"的状态，恰与投资大师霍华德·马克斯11月初最新投资备忘录《矿井里的蟑螂》（The Cockeyed）谈 论的主题不谋而合。 只不过，他讨论的是全球私募信贷市场，而非中国地产。 他从近期几起备受关注的高收益信用事件切入，指出在长期低利率环境后，市场已养成了宽松放贷的习惯。 并借用摩根大通CEO杰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension has led to a significant drop in bond prices, marking the first time in its history that such an extension has occurred, raising concerns about the company's financial stability and creditworthiness [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Vanke's bond "22 Vanke MTN004," with a face value of 3% and a scale of 2 billion, has had its principal and interest payments postponed by one year, causing a collective plunge in Vanke's bonds [3]. - Following the announcement, several Vanke bonds experienced a single-day drop exceeding 20%, triggering temporary trading suspensions, with prices plummeting from around 90 yuan to approximately 20 yuan [4]. - Standard & Poor's downgraded Vanke's credit rating from "BB+" to "CCC-" due to the company's rising debt, which stood at approximately 320 billion yuan as of Q3 2023, alongside pressures from declining profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors initially perceived Vanke's bonds as stable investments but were suddenly confronted with the complexities of real estate cycles, local finances, policy directions, and credit support structures [5]. - The situation reflects a broader theme discussed by investor Howard Marks, highlighting the disconnect between perceived safety and actual risk in the market [5][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a shaky optimism, with investors feeling compelled to remain in the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - In the context of private credit markets, Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous credit standards amidst a trend of lowered investment criteria by others [33][34]. - The discussion includes the potential for high-yield bonds and private credit to outperform cash, with current liquidity credit yields around 7%, though net returns may be lower after accounting for management fees and default risks [19][27]. - Marks warns that the increasing number of active private credit managers may limit the potential for excess returns, suggesting that the market is becoming more efficient [31][32].

本文字数：2827，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 美国私募信贷市场此前在长期快速发展后曾多次爆雷。该行业的数据缺失及不透明问题也被放大在投 资者面前。当前，在华尔街，收购数据提供商，然后将私募信贷数据有偿提供给更多机构，正在逐渐 成为一些机构潜在的生意经。一些评级机构、大型金融机构已纷纷布局。 虽然私募市场近期暂时平静，但缺乏详细的业绩数据，加之与其他金融机构相关性越来越高，一些分 析师警示，美国私募信贷市场潜在的系统性风险仍不容小觑。 数据缺失暗含生意经 私募信贷，简言之就是资产管理公司充当银行的角色给企业放贷。和银行贷款资金主要来源于客户存 款不同，私募信贷公司的资金来源于养老基金、保险公司及高净值个人等私人投资者。 2008年全球金融危机后，银行业的监管标准大幅提高，使得美欧银行业对实体经济的信贷投放量大 幅下降，但贷款需求依然旺盛，资产管理公司等非银金融机构就承接了这部分工作，把客户的资金借 给需要融资的企业，收取利息和管理费。今年5月，波士顿联储发布的一份报告显示， 美国私募信贷 市场近年来呈现爆炸式增长，市场规模从2000年的460亿美元扩张至2023年约1万亿美元。 2025. ...

美国私募信贷市场此前在长期快速发展后曾多次爆雷。该行业的数据缺失及不透明问题也被放大在投资 者面前。当前，在华尔街，收购数据提供商，然后将私募信贷数据有偿提供给更多机构，正在逐渐成为 一些机构潜在的生意经。一些评级机构、大型金融机构已纷纷布局。 华尔街从这些暴雷事件中看到了提供私人市场数据的新生意。上个月，标普全球宣布计划以18亿美元收 购With Intelligence，成为最新一家斥资收购私人资产数据提供商的华尔街巨头。贝莱德于今年3月就斥 资32亿美元收购Preqin，MSCI于2023年以9亿美元收购Burgiss，晨星于2016年以2亿美元收购 PitchBook。 虽然私募市场近期暂时平静，但缺乏详细的业绩数据，加之与其他金融机构相关性越来越高，一些分析 师警示，美国私募信贷市场潜在的系统性风险仍不容小觑。 数据缺失暗含生意经 私募信贷，简言之就是资产管理公司充当银行的角色给企业放贷。和银行贷款资金主要来源于客户存款 不同，私募信贷公司的资金来源于养老基金、保险公司及高净值个人等私人投资者。 2008年全球金融危机后，银行业的监管标准大幅提高，使得美欧银行业对实体经济的信贷投放量大幅下 降，但贷 ...