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信用债ETF双周报(20250804-20250815):科创债ETF增速放缓,可转债ETF资金持续净流入-20250818
Hengtai Securities· 2025-08-18 10:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index led the market, while the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined this period, with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [1]. - The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale [1]. - The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low, with concentrated issuance terms [1]. - In the secondary market, convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp [1]. - In the past two weeks, the cancellation of bond issuance amounted to 1.745 billion yuan, and the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on the VAT policy for the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Bond Index Market Conditions**: The convertible bond index led the market. The Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index had significant gains in the past two weeks, outperforming most pure - bond indexes. Affected by the bond market fluctuations and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined. The China Securities Financial Bond Index and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index had the largest declines, while the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond Index had positive stage returns due to their short durations [6]. - **Bond ETF Market Conditions**: Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [8]. - **Bond ETF Unit Net Value**: The unit net value performance of bond ETFs was differentiated. Convertible bond - related ETFs showed an upward - fluctuating trend in 2025, breaking through 13 yuan in the past two weeks. Sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs had a downward - fluctuating net value after listing, with all net values falling below 100 yuan as of August 15, 2025. The short - term financing ETFs had a stable and rising unit net value, exceeding 112.2 yuan as of August 15, 2025 [12]. - **Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Convertible bond - related ETFs/short - term financing ETFs had continuous net inflows of funds, and local government bond - related ETFs were actively traded. The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) increased by a total of 7.759 billion yuan in the past two weeks. The short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) had a subscription scale of 5.802 billion yuan in the past two weeks [25]. Credit Bond ETF Overview The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale. The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) were 26.57% and 19.25% respectively. Among pure - bond ETFs, Credit Bond ETF Dacheng (159395.SZ) had the highest annualized yield of 2.25%. Nine sci - tech innovation bond - related ETF products had negative annualized yields after listing in July [30]. Primary Market - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds**: The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, convertible bond - related indexes had the smallest issuance scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low. The issuance terms of bond index sample bonds were concentrated, with the weighted issuance term of China Securities Short - Term Financing sample bonds being 0.61 years and that of the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds being 9.18 years [33]. - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds Since This Year**: The issuance of sci - tech innovation bond - related indexes and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds accelerated in June and July. In early August, the issuance rates of most sample bonds increased, and the issuance terms of sci - tech innovation bond - related index sample bonds shortened [35]. Secondary Market - **Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds**: Convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The trading volumes of the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond, Shanghai 5 - year Local Government Bond, and 5 - year Local Government Bond were less than 200 million yuan, with poor liquidity [40]. - **Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indexes**: The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp. The yields of the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index all increased in the past two weeks [43]. Credit Events and Market News - **Deferred/Cancelled Bond Issuance**: The cancelled issuance amount in the past two weeks was 1.745 billion yuan. Due to large market interest - rate fluctuations in the past two weeks, 15 bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance amount of 1.745 billion yuan [48]. - **Market News**: Since August 8, 2025, the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (including those issued after August 8, 2025) has been restored. The interest income of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds issued before this date (including the part issued after August 8, 2025) will continue to be exempt from VAT until the bonds mature [50]. Investment Recommendations The sentiment in the bond market was weak. Although the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the fundamentals still favored the bond market. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a net withdrawal in the past two weeks, the capital market was slightly tight, and bond valuation yields increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [51].