红枣异动点评：多空博弈剧烈，盘面触底反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 王泽辉（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019938） 2025 年 10 月 22 日星期三 电话：020-88818064 邮箱：wangzehui@gf.com.cn 图：CJ2601合约近期走势 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所 行情导读：受多头平仓和空头加仓影响，红枣期货主力合约 CJ2601 上午开盘 1 小时便跌破 3%，随后 有所回升，截至 10 月 22 日下午收盘，收盘价为 11265 元/吨，跌幅达 1.18%，成交量 315011 手，持 仓量 187200，日增-630。多空博弈较为剧烈，当前开称价符合预期但减产幅度未定，资金扰动下盘面 触底反弹。 （一） 新季减产定性但幅度未定 据 Mysteel 数据显示，2024 年度新疆灰枣产量达 75 万吨丰产，2025 年受前年树体营养消耗和关 键生长期高温天气影响，使得产区一茬坐果一般，不过二茬坐果较好，三四茬花存在补量，据 Mysteel 初步预测，新季产量在 56-62 万吨，较 2024 年度下降约 20-25%。整体来看，与去年相比，今年新季新 ...

机构 核心观点 中辉期货：红枣场仍旧建议逢低做多 格林大华期货 仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价 8月22日盘中，红枣期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至11220.00元。截止发稿，红枣主力合 约报11225.00元，跌幅2.56%。 格林大华期货：仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价 红枣期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 当下国内红枣期价仍以围绕产量话题为主，近期关注产区降雨对红枣质量的影响。结合前期流出的少量 收购合同价格和当下枣农的心理预期，后市红枣或仍有进一步打开上方空间的可能。短期建议多关注下 游现货价格与技术指引，当前建议仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价。 中辉期货 红枣场仍旧建议逢低做多 初步判断2025/26年度新疆南疆灰枣市场预期总产量处于50-58万吨区间，减产已成定局，但减产幅度大 概率不敌2023/24年的35万吨，后期结合结转库存存在压力。短期，作为为数不多参与"反内卷"的农产 品，11月前市场围绕开秤价的炒作期相对较长，且近期去库速度有所加快，仍旧利好多头趋势。策略 上，节奏预计先强后弱，当下市场仍旧建议逢低做多。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - term view of buying on dips for the red date futures [26]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall reduction of first - crop red dates is significant, with less than 20% of sample orchards reaching the normal level, and the number of second - crop flowers has decreased by 35% compared to normal years. The specific fruit - setting quantity of second - crop flowers still needs to wait until around July 20 for a final judgment [23]. - In a year of reduced production, the price of red date futures usually rises rapidly from July to the centralized harvest period, divided into two stages: the game of reduction amplitude and the game of opening price. Currently, the market is mainly gambling on the actual growth of new - season red dates [25]. - Considering the reduction in 2025 compared to the historical high - yield year of 2024, the center of the game for the opening price should rise. Combining with the current CJ601 futures price, a short - term view of buying on dips is maintained [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Overview - **Research Location**: Main production areas of grey dates in Alar, Aksu, Tumushuke, and Makit [5]. - **Research Time**: From June 22 to June 27, 2025 [6]. - **Research Method**: - **Orchard Selection**: Invite local jujube farmers and agents as guides, randomly select sample orchards along the research route, with a total of 150 orchards covering the main grey - date production areas [6]. - **Judgment Method**: Observe the number and growth of flowers and fruits on the upper, middle, and lower layers of jujube trees from different directions in the orchard, and compare them with normal years to make five - level judgments [6]. 3.2 Regional Research Results - **Alar Region**: Nearly 80% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 54% of sample orchards have "few" or "few to no" second - crop flowers and fruits [7]. - **Aksu Region**: About 10% of sample orchards have normal first - crop fruits, 40% are "few", and 50% are "few to no". About 50% of orchards have normal second - crop flowers and fruits, and the overall performance is close to normal. However, the quality of red dates is relatively poor, and the yield rate is low [13]. - **Tumushuke Region**: 77% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 59% have "few" second - crop flowers and fruits. There are differences among different regiments, with 44th and 48th regiments performing better [16]. - **Makit Region**: About 70% of sample orchards have first - crop fruit yields lower than normal years. The quantity of second - crop flowers and fruits varies significantly [20]. 3.3 Other Findings - **Weather Impact**: This year's sand - dust weather in southern Xinjiang is significantly more than usual, which affects photosynthesis and pollination. The impact of high - temperature weather may be more significant due to the large specific heat capacity of sand [23]. - **Farmers' Management**: Due to last year's high yields, farmers' management enthusiasm remains high, but the fruit - setting rate of jujube trees with earlier girdling time is better [23]. - **Growth Distribution**: The quantity of flowers and fruits in the middle and lower layers of most jujube trees is significantly less than that in the upper layer, and orchards with larger tree and row spacing have more flowers and fruits [24]. - **Growth Stagnation**: Some jujube farmers reported that the growth of jujube fruits has stagnated, possibly due to the damage to trees caused by last year's high yields and management methods [24].