农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 苹果质量偏差走货较慢，红枣新货价差明显 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9506元/吨，较前一日变动-133元/吨，幅度-1.38%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1306，较前一日变动+133；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1106，较前一日变动+133。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价震荡下跌，相较往年苹果库存偏低，并且苹果质量相对偏差，果农和贸易商出售情绪较低，各产区 走货速度偏慢，大部分客商仍处于观望，关注去库情况。产区新季晚富士入库已结束，入库量低于去年同期10% 以上，客商心态整体较为乐观。上周库存量转降，出库整体一般。后续会陆续开始出库，受季节性淡季影响，消 费按需采购为主，整体节奏略显缓慢，需求端承压运行，交易氛围仍显清淡，柑橘类水果上市量增加，挤压苹果 销售空间，销区情绪相对悲观。 策略 中性。当前入库量、入库结构的预期已经反应在价格上，后续需重点关注终端市场消费复苏情况、入库结构分 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: The investment strategy is to expect prices to be volatile but trending stronger [3]. - Red dates: The investment strategy is neutral [8]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: Currently in a seasonal off - peak period during the transfer - to -出库 stage, with slow consumption in the terminal market and competition from low - priced citrus. However, due to the impact of the storage structure this season, price polarization is severe. With the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date market is at a critical "new - old season transition" stage. The acquisition in Xinjiang is about 80% complete, and the supply in the market is sufficient. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality this year is better than last year. There is a large inventory pressure, and the market has a pessimistic outlook for the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9488 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.40%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market of Fuji apples such as late Fuji is in a seasonal off - peak period. The western and Shandong regions are mainly shipping on a sporadic and on - demand basis, with low enthusiasm for merchants to purchase and pack, and the trading atmosphere is average. The sales in the distribution area are slow, and citrus has an obvious impact on medium - and low - grade apple products. It is expected to remain in an off - peak market in the short term, with stable prices [2]. Strategy - The price is expected to be volatile but trending stronger. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, with the upcoming holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9110 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a strong upward trend yesterday. The acquisition progress of gray dates in Xinjiang has reached 80%, and the supply in the Hebei and Guangdong markets is sufficient. The new products are the main trading items, and the prices vary and tend to decline. The market is in a "new - old season transition" stage, with large inventory pressure and a pessimistic market outlook [7]. Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot products in the production area, the futures price may move towards the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The near - month contract may still have some room for decline [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [7] Core Views - Apple: The overall apple market remains sluggish, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. The market will focus on the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, as well as the price performance of early - maturing apples in the west after their concentrated listing [2][3]. - Red dates: The futures price of red dates rose significantly yesterday. The arrival of goods in the sales area is less, and the downstream replenishment has increased, supporting the price of high - quality goods. The new - season red date output is estimated to decline, but due to many influencing factors, continuous attention is needed [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8052 yuan/ton, a change of +47 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.59% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.15 yuan/jin from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, a change of +0.00 yuan/jin from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - Inventory: The remaining inventory in the warehouse is small, and the de - stocking progress has slowed down. The inventory of stored Fuji in the production and sales areas last week was still slow to move [2]. - New - season early - maturing apples: Paper - bag Qinyang has been gradually listed for trading. Currently, the volume of red fruits is limited, and the price is firm [2]. - Sales area: The sales of apples in the wholesale market in the sales area are still slow, and seasonal fruits continue to divert apple sales, with no obvious improvement in terminal demand [2]. Strategy - The apple market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to low remaining inventory and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year. Attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10695 yuan/ton, a change of +250 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +2.39% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, a change of +0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - New - season red dates: The jujube trees in the main production areas are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some orchards is average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers is good. The new - season output is estimated to be 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease of 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024 [6]. - Sales area: The total inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years. It is currently the traditional off - season, with an increasing supply of seasonal fruits and weakening tonic demand. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has increased recently, and the spot market transactions are good [6]. Strategy - Due to the high sensitivity of funds to the growth of new - season red dates and the significant impact of production - area news on the futures market, the market may fluctuate strongly in the future. Close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7].