热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9485元/吨，较前一日变动+105元/吨，幅度+1.12%。现货方面，山东 栖霞80# 一二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1485，较前一日变 动-105；陕西洛川70# 以上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05- 1085，较前一日变动-105。 近期市场资讯，产区苹果交易局面较前期略有下降，价格暂稳为主。目前客商发前期包装好货源为主， 整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农统货成交量一般，多以高次、三级果走货为主，部分果农急售情绪 加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区静庄秦多以打包 客商货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒调货为主，少量75# 货源、三级货源出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川 产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/ ...

Apple Market Insights - The apple futures contract closed at 9504 yuan/ton, with a change of +38 yuan/ton, representing a +0.40% increase [2][14] - In the spot market, prices for late Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, with no change in price [2][14] - Overall market conditions are stable but slightly weak, with limited transaction volumes and increased urgency among farmers to sell [3][15] Recent Market Developments - Packaging and shipping in production areas have slightly accelerated, but transaction volumes remain limited, leading to a weak market sentiment [3][15] - In Shaanxi, transactions are primarily based on limited high-quality sources, while Gansu's market is stable with steady shipping [3][15] - The market is entering a critical period for pre-Spring Festival stocking, with a focus on wholesale market performance and shipping progress from production areas [3][15] Market Analysis - The apple market is characterized by supply support but weak demand, with farmers willing to lower prices to stimulate sales [5][16] - The pre-Spring Festival stocking phase has seen a slight improvement in transactions, but overall activity remains subdued [5][16] - The market is experiencing a "hot production area, cold sales area" dynamic, with significant inventory buildup in transit warehouses [5][16] Strategy - The current market strategy is neutral, reflecting the mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [6][17] Jujube Market Insights - The jujube futures contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, with a change of +60 yuan/ton, representing a +0.68% increase [7][18] - In the spot market, prices for Hebei's first-grade gray jujubes remained stable at 8.00 yuan/kg [7][18] Recent Market Developments - The jujube market is entering the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking peak, with increased transaction volumes compared to the initial listing of new jujubes [9][20] - Downstream channels are adopting a low inventory strategy, with limited time left for pre-holiday purchases due to impending logistics shutdowns [9][20] - The market is facing high inventory levels and soft consumer demand, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders [9][20] Market Analysis - The jujube market is experiencing a slight increase in prices but remains under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [9][20] - The focus is shifting to downstream consumption as production areas complete their harvests, with some processing plants halting operations due to inventory pressures [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a need to monitor sales pace and buyer sentiment closely [9][20] Strategy - The current market strategy for jujubes is also neutral, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market [21][22]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The trading speed of apple production areas is differentiated, with transactions improving in Shaanxi and Shanxi, but overall slow. The low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales. The market is waiting for the Spring Festival stocking to drive up sales [2][3][4] - 红枣: Although the current year's production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant due to sufficient inventory. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second-grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi-commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price opened high and closed low. Different production areas have different trading speeds. The consumption peak season may drive up sales, but the low-price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress the sales of apples. The excellent fruit rate is low, the hardness of cold storage fruits is insufficient, and the delivery cost is high [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The Spring Festival stocking season is approaching, but the low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the 红枣 2605 contract was 9150 yuan/ton, a change of +175 yuan/ton or +1.95% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Analysis - The 红枣 futures price closed higher at a high level. The acquisition work in the production area has basically ended. Although the production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new and old stocks of 红枣 are sufficient. The sales speed in the sales area is average, and the price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to the downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak season consumption changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][9] Core Views - For the apple industry, the current入库量 and入库结构 expectations are already reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of入库结构 differentiation, and pre - Chinese New Year inventory adjustment by merchants. The market is in a seasonal off - peak, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] - For the jujube industry, if the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the jujube price may rebound during the consumption peak. However, due to the large inventory of new and old seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9506 yuan/ton, a change of - 133 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1306 and AP05 - 1106 increased by 133 from the previous day respectively [1] Recent Market Information - The mainstream market price of late Fuji in storage remains stable, with trading on an as - needed basis. In the western production areas, there are sporadic inquiries from merchants, mainly for farmers' two - grade goods, and the transaction volume is limited. In some areas of Gansu, merchants are shipping Huaniu and high - quality goods, with fair transactions. In Shandong, there is sporadic shipping, and the export of small fruits through foreign trade channels has slowed down. The arrival volume at the wholesale market has changed little, and downstream consumption is weak [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated downward. Compared with previous years, the apple inventory is lower, and the quality is relatively poor. Farmers and traders are less willing to sell, and the shipping speed in each production area is slow. Most merchants are still waiting and watching. The new - season late Fuji has completed warehousing, with the warehousing volume more than 10% lower than the same period last year. The overall mentality of merchants is optimistic. The inventory started to decline last week, and the overall shipping is average. Affected by the seasonal off - peak, consumption is mainly on an as - needed basis, and the demand side is under pressure. The increase in the listing volume of citrus fruits squeezes the sales space of apples, and the sentiment in the distribution areas is relatively pessimistic [3] Strategy - The recommendation is neutral. Given that the expectations of warehousing volume and structure are already priced in, future attention should be on terminal consumption recovery, the impact of warehousing structure differentiation, and merchants' inventory adjustment in the warehouse before the Chinese New Year. It is expected that the double - holiday stocking has not started in large quantities this week, and the market is still in an off - peak situation, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2601 contract yesterday was 9180 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton or + 0.05% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 580 increased by 95 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the Xinjiang production areas, the acquisition of grey jujubes is nearing completion, with only some low - quality and price - holding sellers remaining. The mainstream prices in different areas vary. In the Hebei market, there was a small amount of new - season jujubes arriving at the parking area over the weekend, and they are gradually being processed after being brought back to the factory. The new - season jujubes have a large price difference due to cost and quality. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, there were 9 trucks of jujubes arriving, and the market supply is sufficient. Some holders are reducing prices to avoid storage costs, and downstream merchants are purchasing on an as - needed basis. In the Hebei distribution area, the supply of new - season jujubes is increasing, and it is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [6][7] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated slightly yesterday. Merchants from various places are actively purchasing, and the market trading activity is increasing. However, the inventory is still at a high level, and the sales pressure remains. The trading in the distribution areas is mainly for new - season jujubes, which have a large price difference due to cost and quality. The acquisition of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang main production areas is about 90% complete, and the prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with the cost becoming clearer. The prices in the distribution areas have also stabilized, and some holders are slightly increasing their quotes as downstream purchases increase. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased significantly, reaching the highest level in recent years, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are pessimistic, which has led to a significant decline in futures and spot prices in the past month. As the weather gets colder, jujubes enter the consumption peak season, and the actual consumption situation on the demand side will become another focus [8] Strategy - The recommendation is neutral. If the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the jujube price may rebound during the consumption peak. However, due to the large inventory of new and old seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited even if the consumption data improves [9]