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京东健康:25Q1业绩大幅超市场预期,建议关注后续大促季表现和即时零售布局展开-20250515
海通国际· 2025-05-15 00:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health International [2][5][17] Core Insights - JD Health's revenue for Q1 2025 reached a record high of RMB 16.65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.8%, surpassing the full-year guidance [3][13] - The significant revenue growth is attributed to increased demand during the influenza season, growth in high-value original drugs, and higher sales of health supplements due to increased advertising investments [3][14] - The company achieved an operating profit of RMB 1.07 billion, a 119.8% increase, with an operating margin of 6.4%, leading to a net profit growth of 47.7% [3][14] - JD Health plans to focus on expanding its instant retail initiatives in 10 key cities, leveraging a hybrid B2C+O2O strategy to enhance customer engagement and operational efficiency [4][15] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are RMB 66.6 billion and RMB 75.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][17] - Adjusted net profit projections are RMB 4.4 billion for FY25 and RMB 5.4 billion for FY26, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 26x and 21x [5][17] - The report emphasizes the company's strong fundamentals and maintains an optimistic outlook for the first half of 2025 and the full year [5][17]
京东健康(06618):25Q1业绩大幅超市场预期,建议关注后续大促季表现和即时零售布局展开
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health International [2][18]. Core Insights - JD Health's Q1 2025 revenue reached a record high of RMB 16.65 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.8%, surpassing the full-year guidance [3][14]. - The revenue growth is attributed to increased demand during the influenza season, growth in high-value original drugs, and higher sales of health supplements due to increased advertising investments [15]. - The company achieved an operating profit of RMB 1.07 billion, a significant increase of 119.8%, with an operating margin of 6.4%, contributing to a net profit growth of 47.7% [15][18]. - JD Health plans to focus on self-operated on-demand drug delivery in 10 key cities in 2025, leveraging a hybrid B2C+O2O strategy to enhance customer stickiness and operational efficiency [4][16]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are RMB 66.6 billion and RMB 75.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][18]. - Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 4.4 billion for FY25, reflecting a decrease of 7.3%, and RMB 5.4 billion for FY26, indicating an increase of 20.5% [5][18]. - The report estimates a P/E ratio of 26x for FY25 and 21x for FY26, indicating a favorable valuation based on the company's fundamentals [5][18]. Valuation - The DCF model estimates the equity value of JD Health at HKD 136.8 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 42.90 per share [8][9].