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东航物流(601156):盈利稳中略升,增长动能持续强化
GF SECURITIES· 2026-03-29 03:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.25 CNY and a fair value of 18.36 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its business operations despite external pressures such as increased tariffs, achieving a revenue of 24.26 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.688 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [8]. - The air freight business was a significant driver of revenue growth, with a total income of 10.914 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.79% and an improvement in gross margin [8]. - Cost control measures were effective, with operating costs rising only 0.62% to 19.502 billion CNY, which was lower than revenue growth. This was attributed to a significant reduction in air freight costs and decreased financial expenses [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 24.06 billion CNY in 2024 to 36.94 billion CNY in 2028, with growth rates of 16.7%, 0.9%, 15.3%, 14.4%, and 15.4% respectively [2]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 5.654 billion CNY in 2024 to 8.496 billion CNY in 2028 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 2.242 billion CNY in 2026 but is expected to recover to 3.990 billion CNY by 2028 [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 10.0 for 2024, increasing to 12.2 in 2026, before decreasing to 6.9 by 2028 [2]. - The ROE is projected to decline from 15.3% in 2024 to 10.6% in 2026, then recover to 15.6% by 2028 [2]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 3.5 in 2024 to 1.4 by 2028, indicating improving operational efficiency [2].