Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient performance with stable dividends, and there is optimism regarding steady growth in air freight [2][8]. - Despite challenges in cross-border e-commerce logistics, the company has seen significant growth in direct-to-source and customized logistics services [6][8]. - The company's fundamentals remain robust, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of 40% for 2024-2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.688 billion, up 0.02% year-on-year [4][7]. - Quarterly revenue for 2025 was reported as follows: Q1: 5.49 billion, Q2: 5.77 billion, Q3: 5.99 billion, Q4: 7.02 billion, with respective year-on-year changes of +5.0%, -4.8%, -6.2%, and +9.9% [7]. - The air express business showed strong growth, with revenues of 10.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [7]. Business Segment Analysis - Cross-border e-commerce logistics faced a decline, with a volume of 94,000 tons in 2025, down 42.2% year-on-year, leading to a revenue drop of 3.78 billion, down 36.2% [6]. - Direct-to-source and customized logistics services saw significant growth, with volumes of 46,000 tons and 20,000 tons, respectively, increasing by 44.9% and 38.4% year-on-year, contributing revenues of 3.971 billion and 542 million, up 20.1% and 51.8% [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 27.165 billion, 29.022 billion, and 30.696 billion, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 7%, and 6% respectively [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.028 billion, 3.467 billion, and 3.880 billion, with growth rates of 13%, 14%, and 12% [10]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.04 for 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.25 CNY and a fair value of 18.36 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its business operations despite external pressures such as increased tariffs, achieving a revenue of 24.26 billion CNY in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.688 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [8]. - The air freight business was a significant driver of revenue growth, with a total income of 10.914 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.79% and an improvement in gross margin [8]. - Cost control measures were effective, with operating costs rising only 0.62% to 19.502 billion CNY, which was lower than revenue growth. This was attributed to a significant reduction in air freight costs and decreased financial expenses [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 24.06 billion CNY in 2024 to 36.94 billion CNY in 2028, with growth rates of 16.7%, 0.9%, 15.3%, 14.4%, and 15.4% respectively [2]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 5.654 billion CNY in 2024 to 8.496 billion CNY in 2028 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 2.242 billion CNY in 2026 but is expected to recover to 3.990 billion CNY by 2028 [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 10.0 for 2024, increasing to 12.2 in 2026, before decreasing to 6.9 by 2028 [2]. - The ROE is projected to decline from 15.3% in 2024 to 10.6% in 2026, then recover to 15.6% by 2028 [2]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 3.5 in 2024 to 1.4 by 2028, indicating improving operational efficiency [2].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 545 million yuan, a decrease of 7.4% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5.486 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 545 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.4% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 500 million yuan, down 5.21% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The air express business generated revenue and gross profit of 2.062 billion yuan and 357 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.9% and 14.4% [1] - The gross margin for the air express business was 17.3%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment achieved revenue and gross profit of 2.803 billion yuan and 386 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 6.7% and 37.7% [1] Group 3: Ground Services and Tax Impact - The ground services segment reported revenue of 618 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.74%, but gross profit of 215 million yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for ground services was 34.78%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's income tax expense was 206 million yuan, a significant increase of 310.2% year-on-year, which negatively impacted overall performance [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.166 billion yuan, 27.146 billion yuan, and 29.324 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 7.9%, and 8.0% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.39 billion yuan, 2.65 billion yuan, and 2.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.0%, +10.6%, and +6.0% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading position in the domestic air logistics sector and steady shareholder returns [3]