电价回落，是今年以来拖累电力公用行业盈利表现与估值提升的最大因素之一。而目前，政策端首次确"稳电价"，26年电力行业长协电价企稳预期得到了充 分提振。今年四季度就是电力行业为明年长协电价密集谈判，价格端景气回升信号有望逐步显现的验证窗口期。 从四季度开始，电力行业受益于分子端在低基数下今年冬季电力需求有望同比高增+明年长协电价预期改善，与分母端市场风格向红利价值端切换的概率增 加，板块配置价值趋于明确。绿色电力ETF易方达（562960，场外联接A/C: 019058/019059）新型电力系统建设的核心受益标的，均衡配置水电、火电、新 能源运营领域龙头企业，是把握新型电力系统转型贝塔机会的便捷工具。 1.政策明确"稳电价"，强化电价谈判预期 9月，国资委部分国有企业经济运行座谈会聚焦"稳电价、稳煤价"、防止"内卷式"恶性竞争等，听取企业意见建议，进一步研究夯实企业高质量发展基础的 政策举措。"反内卷"的政策框架内首次提出"稳电价"，直指当前电力行业的核心矛盾，有望推动形成稳定的电价预期，一定程度缓解此前市场对于 2026 年 年度长协电价偏弱的担忧。 从火电行业的盈利三要素来看，煤价、电价以及利用小时数决定 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the increasing demand for electricity driven by AI data centers is leading to a global power supply crisis, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which is expected to reshape the electricity industry and create investment opportunities [1][4]. - The U.S. is experiencing a significant surge in electricity prices, with the PCE index reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, amidst concerns over power shortages due to the expansion of AI data centers and domestic manufacturing growth [1][4]. - From 2024 to 2025, the U.S. electricity import volume has increased significantly, with a net import of 2.1 TWh in September 2025, compared to 9.31 TWh in the same period of 2024, indicating a growing electricity gap [4]. Group 2 - China's electricity demand is projected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% for data centers, driven by the rapid development of AI [6][8]. - According to the IEA, global data center electricity consumption is expected to double from 415 TWh in 2024 to approximately 945 TWh by 2030, with China and the U.S. being the regions with the most significant growth [6][8]. - In China, the electricity consumption of data centers is expected to reach 1,660 billion kWh in 2024, accounting for 1.68% of total electricity consumption, with projections for 2030 ranging from 3,000 billion kWh to over 7,000 billion kWh depending on AI growth scenarios [8][9]. Group 3 - The demand for electricity driven by AI not only increases the total electricity consumption but also places significant pressure on the power load, highlighting the importance of stable power sources [11][12]. - AI data centers may require power loads exceeding tens of megawatts, which can surpass grid limits, emphasizing the need for robust power supply systems [11][12]. - The increasing load demand is expected to drive electricity prices higher, as the marginal cost of electricity generation becomes a critical factor [12][14]. Group 4 - The volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar exacerbates the challenges faced by the power system, making the value of stable energy sources like thermal power and energy storage more prominent [14][16]. - The construction of a new power system is expected to clarify the long-term return on equity (ROE) for thermal power and energy storage, indicating a stable valuation for these sectors [14][16]. - The growth of the electricity industry driven by AI is anticipated to catalyze an increase in sector valuations, with investment vehicles like the E Fund Green Power ETF (562960) and energy storage ETFs being highlighted as potential opportunities [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the decline in electricity prices has significantly impacted the profitability and valuation of the electric utility industry this year, but the recent policy to stabilize electricity prices is expected to boost long-term contract price expectations for 2026 [1][2] - The "stabilize electricity price" policy was introduced during a meeting of state-owned enterprises, aiming to address the core contradictions in the electricity industry and alleviate concerns about weak long-term contract prices for 2026 [2] - The profitability of the thermal power industry is influenced by three main factors: coal prices, electricity prices, and utilization hours, with the current focus on stabilizing electricity prices to avoid excessive competition among power generation companies [2] Group 2 - High electricity load and strong demand are expected to support electricity prices, with significant increases in electricity load observed, such as a record high of 1.465 billion kilowatts in July, indicating manageable risks for future price declines [5][7] - The "anti-involution" policy and increased winter coal demand have led to a rise in coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 748 yuan per ton, marking an 8% month-on-month increase and a 23% rise from the year's low [9][10] - The establishment of capacity pricing mechanisms is expected to stabilize the profitability of thermal power assets, with the capacity price for coal power units set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year, which could further enhance the valuation of thermal power assets if implemented successfully [12][13] Group 3 - The electric power sector is currently in a critical verification period for recovery, benefiting from a market shift from growth to value, which presents a favorable configuration window for investments in green electricity ETFs [15]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong medical ETF (159366) led the gains with an increase of 2.26% [1] - The automotive parts ETF (562700) rose by 2.05% [1] - The 2000 ETF enhancement (159553) saw an increase of 2.01% [1] Group 2 - The green power ETF from E Fund (562960) was the biggest loser, declining by 2.05% [1] - Another green power ETF (561170) also fell by 2.05% [1] - The power ETF fund (561700) decreased by 2.03% [1] Group 3 - A-share accounts can now buy Hong Kong stocks with T+0 trading without the need for Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]