Core Insights - The green certificate trading market is experiencing explosive growth, transitioning from an optional asset for companies to a mandatory requirement, leading to a surge in active sellers in Shandong province [1] - The total issuance of green certificates by the National Energy Administration reached 4.734 billion in 2024, with 3.158 billion being tradable [1] - The trading volume of green certificates in 2024 is projected to reach 446 million, a year-on-year increase of 364% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of wind energy green certificates has skyrocketed from 0.2 yuan to 50 yuan per certificate within two years [4] - The average price of green certificates for the 2025 production year increased from 4.12 yuan to 6.48 yuan [4] - In August 2024, the highest transaction price for 2025 green certificates reached 38.09 yuan, while the average price for 2024 certificates was 12.95 yuan [4] Group 2: Buyer Composition - In 2023, 68.6% of sold green certificates were purchased by the manufacturing sector, with Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia being the largest buying provinces [6] - Foreign enterprises in China increased their green certificate purchases by 210% from January to May 2024, while export-oriented companies saw a 270% increase [6] - Companies like Nanshan Aluminum and Xinfa Group are actively purchasing green certificates to comply with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [8] Group 3: Regional Developments - Jiangsu province's green certificate trading volume increased fourfold to 3.85 million certificates in 2024, leading the nation [7] - Shandong province issued 5.383 million green certificates in the first half of 2025, a 130.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The establishment of green electricity service stations in regions like Wuxi is facilitating the purchase of green certificates for local enterprises [6][8] Group 4: Corporate Initiatives - Nanshan Aluminum purchased 200,000 international green certificates in 2024, a tenfold increase from 2023 [8] - Xinfa Group is leveraging solar and wind projects to offset coal power emissions, aligning with EU carbon tax requirements [8] - Companies like Shandong High-Speed Energy are entering the green certificate trading market, achieving significant transaction volumes [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The introduction of mandatory green electricity consumption targets for industries such as aluminum, steel, and cement is expected to further drive demand for green certificates [11] - The potential for data centers to be required to consume 80% green electricity by 2025 could create a new significant buyer in the green certificate market [11]