报告共计：19页 欧盟碳关税对中国高耗能产品出口的影响及对策总结 欧盟于2021年提出碳关税政策（CBAM），2023年10月进入过渡期，2026年正式征税，覆盖钢铁、铝、水泥、化肥等行业。中国作为欧盟重要贸易伙伴， 2022年对欧出口占比16%，其中超50%为高耗能产品，该政策对中国相关行业出口影响深远。 研究基于投入产出模型测算发现，在四类行业未纳入中国碳市场的情景下，碳关税将使中国高耗能产品出口成本最终上升6%-19%。其中钢铁行业受冲击最 大，2034年免费配额归零后，成本上升约19%，需缴碳关税近200亿元；化肥行业成本上升超9%，铝和水泥行业均超6%。若中国碳价升至307元/t，各行业 成本增幅将大幅降低，钢铁行业可降至10%以下。 从国际贸易格局看，钢铁行业变化最为显著。2034年，中国、俄罗斯钢铁价格上升14%-16%，欧盟对其进口规模分别下降285亿元、101亿元；而美国、土耳 其因采用短流程炼钢（碳排放强度仅为中国一半），价格增幅仅8%-10%，将占据竞争优势。其他行业中，化肥虽价格较低但对欧出口依赖度低，市场份额 调整有限；水泥出口占比极低且单价过高，受影响微弱；铝行业价格本就偏高，碳关 ...

Core Insights - The green certificate trading market is experiencing explosive growth, transitioning from an optional asset for companies to a mandatory requirement, leading to a surge in active sellers in Shandong province [1] - The total issuance of green certificates by the National Energy Administration reached 4.734 billion in 2024, with 3.158 billion being tradable [1] - The trading volume of green certificates in 2024 is projected to reach 446 million, a year-on-year increase of 364% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of wind energy green certificates has skyrocketed from 0.2 yuan to 50 yuan per certificate within two years [4] - The average price of green certificates for the 2025 production year increased from 4.12 yuan to 6.48 yuan [4] - In August 2024, the highest transaction price for 2025 green certificates reached 38.09 yuan, while the average price for 2024 certificates was 12.95 yuan [4] Group 2: Buyer Composition - In 2023, 68.6% of sold green certificates were purchased by the manufacturing sector, with Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia being the largest buying provinces [6] - Foreign enterprises in China increased their green certificate purchases by 210% from January to May 2024, while export-oriented companies saw a 270% increase [6] - Companies like Nanshan Aluminum and Xinfa Group are actively purchasing green certificates to comply with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [8] Group 3: Regional Developments - Jiangsu province's green certificate trading volume increased fourfold to 3.85 million certificates in 2024, leading the nation [7] - Shandong province issued 5.383 million green certificates in the first half of 2025, a 130.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The establishment of green electricity service stations in regions like Wuxi is facilitating the purchase of green certificates for local enterprises [6][8] Group 4: Corporate Initiatives - Nanshan Aluminum purchased 200,000 international green certificates in 2024, a tenfold increase from 2023 [8] - Xinfa Group is leveraging solar and wind projects to offset coal power emissions, aligning with EU carbon tax requirements [8] - Companies like Shandong High-Speed Energy are entering the green certificate trading market, achieving significant transaction volumes [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The introduction of mandatory green electricity consumption targets for industries such as aluminum, steel, and cement is expected to further drive demand for green certificates [11] - The potential for data centers to be required to consume 80% green electricity by 2025 could create a new significant buyer in the green certificate market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a "carbon identity" system in Zhejiang, which allows products to display their carbon footprint and the amount of green electricity used during production, aiding local companies in meeting upcoming EU carbon tariffs [1][7]. Group 1: Carbon Identity System - The "carbon identity" system enables consumers to scan product labels to see the carbon footprint and production process in real-time [1]. - The system is being utilized by companies like Zhejiang Hars Company, which has seen a 27% reduction in carbon emissions during peak solar power production, saving over 1 million yuan in electricity costs annually [1][6]. - The platform developed by State Grid Jinhua Power Supply Company calculates hourly carbon factors, providing precise data for companies to monitor and reduce their carbon emissions [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Export and Competitiveness - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose tariffs of 60-100 euros per ton of carbon emissions starting in 2026, presenting a significant challenge for Jinhua's export businesses, which have an annual export value of 771.9 billion yuan [1]. - The introduction of the carbon identity system is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Zhejiang's products in international markets by demonstrating their low-carbon credentials [6][7]. - Feedback from international clients indicates that the carbon labels increase their recognition of the low-carbon capabilities of "Zhejiang manufacturing" [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Future Prospects - The carbon management system acts like a "carbon microscope," providing real-time data on carbon emissions and energy consumption for companies [6]. - The transition from traditional electricity supply to a focus on carbon management represents a significant shift in the role of power companies in the context of carbon neutrality [7]. - The precise tracking of each unit of electricity's "green content" is seen as essential for maintaining the competitiveness of Zhejiang's manufacturing sector in the global market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of zero-carbon parks is a significant strategic initiative for China to achieve its "dual carbon" goals and respond to international green trade barriers, aiming to enhance foreign trade competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Zero-Carbon Park Development - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration have issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks in qualified regions, outlining eight key tasks [1]. - The construction of zero-carbon parks is seen as a critical measure to adapt to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will be implemented in 2026 and may extend to downstream manufactured products [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Shortcomings - Despite the initiation of zero-carbon park construction, there are shortcomings in adapting to green trade, such as an inadequate carbon emission statistical accounting system and a lack of international recognition for green certifications [2][3]. - The need for a unified carbon data management platform is emphasized to enhance carbon data management and application levels, ensuring compatibility with international carbon accounting and reporting rules [3]. Group 3: Green Certification and Standards - Establishing an internationally recognized "green label" system is proposed, with zero-carbon parks as pilot projects to promote green certification cooperation with major trading partners [4]. - The introduction of international third-party certification agencies into parks is suggested to provide green certification and carbon footprint auditing services [4]. Group 4: Financial Support and Energy Structure - The development of a green trade financial support system is crucial, with a focus on aligning energy and product low-carbon attributes [5]. - Encouragement for regions to develop industries that meet international green demands based on local resources is highlighted, along with the need for differentiated green export advantages [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global refining and olefins industry is expected to see a decline in refining margins after reaching a peak around 2030, influenced by geopolitical factors, carbon taxes, and the transition to renewable energy. Approximately 1.5 million tons per day of refining capacity has been announced for closure or conversion, with China accounting for 50% of this capacity [1][5][34]. - By 2035, about 22% of global refining capacity (18.4 million barrels per day) is at risk of closure, primarily concentrated in Europe and the Middle East. National Oil Companies (NOCs) are less inclined to close facilities due to government support, while International Oil Companies (IOCs) are more likely to close or sell unprofitable refineries [1][7][8]. Olefins Market Dynamics - Since 2020, global ethylene investment has been predominantly led by China, with private companies like Longsheng and Hengli entering the market significantly. From 2025 to 2028, major state-owned companies like PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to lead investments, shifting focus towards increasing petrochemical production [1][11][12]. - Approximately 40%-50% of global ethylene assets are currently at a loss or breakeven, indicating that the industry is at a cyclical low. China has seen a surge in new refining projects since 2017, leading to global oversupply, while Europe faces significant pressure due to high energy prices and carbon tax issues [1][14][15]. Regional Insights - In the U.S., a refinery in the PAD3 region with a capacity of 290,000 barrels per day has announced closure and will transition to hydrogen production by 2025. Other refineries are also shifting towards renewable fuel production [6][25]. - In Europe, the refining landscape is undergoing structural adjustments, with several companies announcing closures or asset sales to adapt to economic and environmental challenges. By 2028, European ethylene capacity is expected to decrease by 12% compared to 2024 [23][24]. Future Projections - The global refining industry is projected to peak in demand for crude oil and chemical products around 2030 or 2031, after which refining profits and utilization rates will gradually decline. This trend is expected to lead to more local refineries exiting the market, particularly in China and Europe [34][36]. - The ethylene market's future will largely depend on investment levels and the rate of capacity elimination. While the pace of new projects may slow, it does not imply cancellations, especially for large enterprises. Economic recovery in China is expected to significantly impact demand for petrochemical products [36][28]. Risk Assessment - Approximately 63 million tons of global ethylene capacity is at risk of closure, representing 27% of the total capacity by 2025. High and medium-risk capacities are primarily concentrated in Asia and Europe, with North America and Russia having lower closure rates [18][19]. - In China, around 11 million tons of ethylene capacity is at risk of closure in the next five years, with significant portions being high-risk. The government is tightening approvals for new ethylene projects, which is expected to alleviate pressure on domestic refining companies [21][19]. Conclusion - The refining and olefins industries are facing significant transformations driven by market dynamics, regulatory changes, and geopolitical factors. The future landscape will be shaped by capacity adjustments, investment trends, and the ongoing transition towards more sustainable energy sources.

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China Huadian Corporation Hubei Branch to jointly build low-carbon and zero-carbon industrial parks globally, focusing on green electricity connectivity and resource sharing to enhance ESG value and competitiveness [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The strategic cooperation agreement aims to establish a global low-carbon and zero-carbon industrial park construction and operation system [1] - The partnership will leverage "green electricity direct connection" to trace green electricity and implement a multi-faceted "green + circular" cooperation model [1] Group 2: Environmental and Economic Impact - The use of green low-carbon energy is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions and meet downstream customers' certification requirements for green electricity tracing and carbon footprint [1] - The initiative will help the company address challenges related to "carbon tariffs," thereby enhancing its ESG value and meeting global customer demands [1] Group 3: Business Growth and Competitiveness - The collaboration is anticipated to lower production costs, improve profitability, and enhance product competitiveness [1] - This strategic move aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and benefits a wide range of investors while promoting the development of the global green industry [1]

Group 1 - The global zero-carbon economy is accelerating the formation of a new green trade rule system, with over 100 countries, including China, setting zero-carbon targets and exploring potential opportunities [1] - The EU has established a comprehensive system to address sustainable development challenges, which poses significant challenges for China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [1] - Chinese foreign trade enterprises face both challenges and opportunities in responding to green trade barriers, emphasizing the need for low-carbon green transformation [1] Group 2 - Nanjing Jiuchi Electromechanical Co., Ltd. faced difficulties in carbon footprint accounting due to customer demands for detailed product carbon data, highlighting the pressure on manufacturing enterprises [2] - The establishment of green low-carbon working groups aims to provide pilot services for carbon footprint accounting, CBAM reporting, and regulatory consultation to manufacturing enterprises [3] - The "carbon account" concept is crucial for customs to verify the authenticity of carbon data submitted by enterprises, which will influence carbon tax assessments [3] Group 3 - The pilot program is seen as a starting point for exploring green transformation in foreign trade, addressing compliance challenges for enterprises through collaboration among government, professional institutions, and law firms [4] - Future efforts will focus on training enterprises in product classification techniques and providing long-term, precise "carbon support" to enhance "green competitiveness" in foreign trade [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the chemical industry in Europe, with major chemical companies withdrawing production capacity due to strict environmental regulations and high energy costs [1][33]. Core Insights - The European Union is the second-largest chemical production region globally, but the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated energy price increases, impacting the competitiveness of the European chemical industry [2][34]. - The EU is actively pursuing carbon neutrality, with significant regulatory changes and initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions [2][51]. - Leftist political parties in Europe are pushing for stricter regulations on the chemical industry, which has led to increased operational challenges for chemical manufacturers [2][66]. - Major chemical companies are exiting the European market, citing high energy costs and regulatory burdens as primary reasons for their decisions [2][74]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is the highest value-added and investment-intensive sector in EU manufacturing, employing approximately 3.4 million people [3][4]. - In 2020, the chemical sector contributed significantly to the EU's manufacturing employment, second only to the food products industry [3]. Market Dynamics - The EU chemical industry accounted for 13% of global chemical sales in 2023, a decline from 16% in 2013, with sales dropping to approximately €655 billion, a 12.4% decrease year-on-year [15][19]. - The production capacity utilization in the EU remains low, fluctuating around 75%, compared to a historical average of 81% [44]. Financial Performance - Capital expenditures in the EU chemical sector reached €32.1 billion in 2023, marking a 53% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, but growth rates lag behind those in China and the US [25]. - R&D spending in the EU chemical sector has also seen a decline in global share, with a 25% increase from €8 billion to €10 billion, while China's R&D spending doubled in the same period [30]. Regulatory Environment - The EU's carbon emissions trading system has generated significant revenue, reaching nearly €29.1 billion from 2013 to 2023, reflecting the EU's commitment to carbon neutrality [51]. - The upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose carbon costs on certain imported goods, including organic chemicals, starting in 2026 [56]. Company Actions - Major chemical companies, including Dow, Shell, and BASF, are restructuring their European operations, closing or selling high-cost production facilities due to unfavorable market conditions [75][76].

Core Insights - The construction of solar power plants in the Gradiška region of Bosnia is accelerating, with expectations that solar energy generation will soon exceed local electricity consumption [1] - The proliferation of photovoltaic systems is crucial for ecological protection, energy independence, and enhancing local economic competitiveness in the Western European market [1] - Local government is actively simplifying administrative approval processes for photovoltaic energy projects to support renewable energy adoption [1] Summary by Categories Energy Generation - Currently, there are 20 megawatts of solar power plants operational in Gradiška, covering approximately 50% of local electricity demand [1] - An additional 60 megawatts of solar power projects have received all necessary land and construction permits [1] Government Initiatives - The local government is focused on facilitating the administrative processes for renewable energy projects to encourage adoption [1] - Local businesses are urged to utilize renewable energy to avoid carbon tariffs imposed by the EU based on product carbon footprints [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is creating significant challenges for foreign trade enterprises in China, necessitating the establishment of carbon accounting systems to comply with new regulations and avoid losing key customers [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Foreign Trade Enterprises - The EU plans to start imposing carbon tariffs in early January next year, making it crucial for companies to develop their own "carbon accounts" for exports [1]. - Foreign trade enterprises are experiencing rising visible and hidden carbon costs, with many unable to meet carbon emission requirements, risking exclusion from mainstream supply chains [1][2]. - Companies like Jiuchi Electromechanical are under pressure to provide comprehensive carbon footprint data, with 9 out of their top 10 customers demanding such information [2][3]. Group 2: Solutions and Support Initiatives - A green low-carbon working group has been established to provide a three-in-one pilot service for carbon footprint accounting, CBAM reporting, and regulatory consultation [3]. - The working group focuses on carbon management throughout the product lifecycle, assisting companies in creating self-reporting templates and improving their carbon accounting capabilities [3][4]. - The customs authority is developing a "carbon account book" to verify the authenticity of carbon data submitted by enterprises, ensuring compliance with the new regulations [4][5]. Group 3: Future Directions and Training - There is a need for increased awareness and proactive engagement from enterprises regarding carbon reporting, as many are currently focused on survival rather than sustainability [4][5]. - Future initiatives will include concentrated training sessions for companies to help them understand proper classification methods to avoid being subjected to CBAM controls [5].