绿色贸易正成为国际经贸新秩序的重要特征。欧盟碳边境调节机制将于2026年正式实施，并拟扩展至下 游制成品。我国是欧盟最大进口来源国，2024年欧盟自我国进口商品达5178亿欧元，占自非欧盟国家进 口总额的21.3%。随着碳关税落地，我国钢铁、铝等原材料行业将首当其冲，若进一步覆盖下游产品， 汽车、机械、家电等行业碳成本也将显著上升。此外，环境技术标准、绿色包装和标签要求、碳足迹 等"绿色壁垒"持续趋严。面对这样的形势，我国零碳园区建设虽已起步，但在绿色贸易适应力上仍有短 板，例如，碳排放统计核算监测体系不健全，能源与产业结构错位，绿电绿证等认证缺乏国际衔接与互 认，绿色金融支撑不足等。基于此，应将零碳园区作为统筹能源转型、技术与制度创新、产业升级的关 键载体，以可溯源能源供给、全流程碳足迹管理和低零碳技术应用为抓手，在出口导向型园区先行示 范，主动对接绿色贸易规则，探索可复制推广的系统性方案，为我国出口产品赢得低碳"通行证"，在全 球绿色贸易中塑造竞争新优势。 健全碳排放数据统计核算标准体系，提升碳数据管理与应用水平。建立园区统一的能碳数据管理平台， 覆盖碳排放采集、核算、验证、报告全流程，形成标准化、透明化 ...

全球炼化及烯烃行业格局展望 20250825 摘要 全球炼油毛利率预计在 2030 年左右达峰值后下滑，受地缘政治、碳关 税和新能源转型等因素影响，不经济炼厂或将关闭或转型为生物燃料生 产设施。已有约 150 万吨/天的炼厂宣布关停或转型，中国占 50%。 预测到 2035 年，全球约 22%的炼油产能（1,840 万桶/天）面临关停 风险，主要集中在欧洲和中东地区。国家石油公司（NOC）因政府支持， 关停意愿较低，而国际石油公司（IOC）更倾向于关闭或出售盈利微薄 的炼油厂。 2020 年后，全球乙烯投资主要由中国主导，民营企业如龙盛和恒力大 量进入该领域。2025-2028 年，中石油、中石化等大型炼油公司将主 导投资，转向增产石化产品，通过加氢处理重油以生产更多石脑油。 全球约 40%-50%的乙烯资产处于负利润或盈亏平衡状态，行业处于周 期底部。中国自 2017 年以来大量新建炼化项目，导致全球供应过剩。 欧洲因能源价格高企及碳税问题，面临较大压力。 全球约有 6,300 万吨乙烯产能面临关闭风险，占 2025 年全球总产能的 27%，高中风险产能约占 55%，主要集中在亚洲和欧洲。中国约有 1,10 ...

Group 1 - The global zero-carbon economy is accelerating the formation of a new green trade rule system, with over 100 countries, including China, setting zero-carbon targets and exploring potential opportunities [1] - The EU has established a comprehensive system to address sustainable development challenges, which poses significant challenges for China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [1] - Chinese foreign trade enterprises face both challenges and opportunities in responding to green trade barriers, emphasizing the need for low-carbon green transformation [1] Group 2 - Nanjing Jiuchi Electromechanical Co., Ltd. faced difficulties in carbon footprint accounting due to customer demands for detailed product carbon data, highlighting the pressure on manufacturing enterprises [2] - The establishment of green low-carbon working groups aims to provide pilot services for carbon footprint accounting, CBAM reporting, and regulatory consultation to manufacturing enterprises [3] - The "carbon account" concept is crucial for customs to verify the authenticity of carbon data submitted by enterprises, which will influence carbon tax assessments [3] Group 3 - The pilot program is seen as a starting point for exploring green transformation in foreign trade, addressing compliance challenges for enterprises through collaboration among government, professional institutions, and law firms [4] - Future efforts will focus on training enterprises in product classification techniques and providing long-term, precise "carbon support" to enhance "green competitiveness" in foreign trade [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the chemical industry in Europe, with major chemical companies withdrawing production capacity due to strict environmental regulations and high energy costs [1][33]. Core Insights - The European Union is the second-largest chemical production region globally, but the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated energy price increases, impacting the competitiveness of the European chemical industry [2][34]. - The EU is actively pursuing carbon neutrality, with significant regulatory changes and initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions [2][51]. - Leftist political parties in Europe are pushing for stricter regulations on the chemical industry, which has led to increased operational challenges for chemical manufacturers [2][66]. - Major chemical companies are exiting the European market, citing high energy costs and regulatory burdens as primary reasons for their decisions [2][74]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is the highest value-added and investment-intensive sector in EU manufacturing, employing approximately 3.4 million people [3][4]. - In 2020, the chemical sector contributed significantly to the EU's manufacturing employment, second only to the food products industry [3]. Market Dynamics - The EU chemical industry accounted for 13% of global chemical sales in 2023, a decline from 16% in 2013, with sales dropping to approximately €655 billion, a 12.4% decrease year-on-year [15][19]. - The production capacity utilization in the EU remains low, fluctuating around 75%, compared to a historical average of 81% [44]. Financial Performance - Capital expenditures in the EU chemical sector reached €32.1 billion in 2023, marking a 53% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, but growth rates lag behind those in China and the US [25]. - R&D spending in the EU chemical sector has also seen a decline in global share, with a 25% increase from €8 billion to €10 billion, while China's R&D spending doubled in the same period [30]. Regulatory Environment - The EU's carbon emissions trading system has generated significant revenue, reaching nearly €29.1 billion from 2013 to 2023, reflecting the EU's commitment to carbon neutrality [51]. - The upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose carbon costs on certain imported goods, including organic chemicals, starting in 2026 [56]. Company Actions - Major chemical companies, including Dow, Shell, and BASF, are restructuring their European operations, closing or selling high-cost production facilities due to unfavorable market conditions [75][76].

Core Insights - The construction of solar power plants in the Gradiška region of Bosnia is accelerating, with expectations that solar energy generation will soon exceed local electricity consumption [1] - The proliferation of photovoltaic systems is crucial for ecological protection, energy independence, and enhancing local economic competitiveness in the Western European market [1] - Local government is actively simplifying administrative approval processes for photovoltaic energy projects to support renewable energy adoption [1] Summary by Categories Energy Generation - Currently, there are 20 megawatts of solar power plants operational in Gradiška, covering approximately 50% of local electricity demand [1] - An additional 60 megawatts of solar power projects have received all necessary land and construction permits [1] Government Initiatives - The local government is focused on facilitating the administrative processes for renewable energy projects to encourage adoption [1] - Local businesses are urged to utilize renewable energy to avoid carbon tariffs imposed by the EU based on product carbon footprints [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is creating significant challenges for foreign trade enterprises in China, necessitating the establishment of carbon accounting systems to comply with new regulations and avoid losing key customers [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Foreign Trade Enterprises - The EU plans to start imposing carbon tariffs in early January next year, making it crucial for companies to develop their own "carbon accounts" for exports [1]. - Foreign trade enterprises are experiencing rising visible and hidden carbon costs, with many unable to meet carbon emission requirements, risking exclusion from mainstream supply chains [1][2]. - Companies like Jiuchi Electromechanical are under pressure to provide comprehensive carbon footprint data, with 9 out of their top 10 customers demanding such information [2][3]. Group 2: Solutions and Support Initiatives - A green low-carbon working group has been established to provide a three-in-one pilot service for carbon footprint accounting, CBAM reporting, and regulatory consultation [3]. - The working group focuses on carbon management throughout the product lifecycle, assisting companies in creating self-reporting templates and improving their carbon accounting capabilities [3][4]. - The customs authority is developing a "carbon account book" to verify the authenticity of carbon data submitted by enterprises, ensuring compliance with the new regulations [4][5]. Group 3: Future Directions and Training - There is a need for increased awareness and proactive engagement from enterprises regarding carbon reporting, as many are currently focused on survival rather than sustainability [4][5]. - Future initiatives will include concentrated training sessions for companies to help them understand proper classification methods to avoid being subjected to CBAM controls [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of green ammonia and green methanol is essential for addressing high carbon emissions in traditional industries like energy and petrochemicals, as well as for meeting domestic and international low-carbon transition pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - China's synthetic ammonia and methanol production contributes approximately 220 million tons of carbon emissions, accounting for 50% of the chemical industry's total emissions, making it a key area for reduction efforts [2]. - The EU's "Fit for 55" package and the upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will impose significant export pressures on industries, including fertilizers and hydrogen, highlighting the urgency for green ammonia and methanol development [2]. Group 2: Current Challenges - The green ammonia and methanol industry in China is still in the market cultivation stage, facing challenges in technology, market readiness, and economic viability [4]. - The production processes, including electrolysis and biomass routes, have technical limitations, such as unstable renewable energy resources and high costs associated with hydrogen storage and transportation [4]. - Economic feasibility remains a concern, as the cost of hydrogen production via electrolysis is currently 2 to 3 times higher than coal-based methods unless electricity prices drop significantly [4]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The decline in costs for solar panels and smart technology is expected to lower the price of renewable energy, with wind and solar electricity costs currently around 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per kilowatt-hour [6]. - The industry is encouraged to explore new technological pathways and collaborate with local renewable energy enterprises to secure cheaper electricity [7]. - The government is advised to maintain a rational approach in project approvals, allowing for pilot projects in specific regions to prevent investment waste [7]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Industry players should accelerate the operationalization of existing green ammonia and methanol projects while avoiding superficial promotion without substantial construction [7]. - Continuous improvement of standards for green ammonia and methanol is necessary, with existing standards already published by the China Fertilizer Association [7].

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The divestment of European operations will significantly impact the company's 2025 profit and loss, leading to a more accurate reflection of operational performance post-transaction [2] - The company anticipates that revenue from its own brand will exceed 40% of domestic sales in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this area [2] - The decline in net profit for 2024 is attributed to increased losses in overseas operations and rising costs associated with new factory production, despite steady growth in domestic revenue [3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on enhancing its presence in Southeast Asia, primarily serving Japanese clients, and plans to adjust its strategy based on market conditions [3] - There is a commitment to increasing research and development efforts in response to rapid technological advancements in the electric vehicle components sector [4] - The company aims to expand its product offerings in the intelligent cockpit sector, leveraging its existing strengths in R&D and customer relationships [4] Group 3: Challenges and Risk Management - The company faces challenges in maintaining profit margins due to increased competition and a price war in the domestic automotive market [6] - The impact of rising costs from new factory operations is expected to be temporary, with long-term benefits anticipated as production scales up [5] - The company is actively managing the implications of carbon tariffs and has dedicated resources to monitor and address these challenges [8] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company boasts a stable core customer base and a strong R&D capability, which are key competitive advantages in the automotive parts industry [6] - It has established a comprehensive global production base, enhancing its ability to meet diverse market demands [6] - The company is positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the electric vehicle market while maintaining its traditional fuel vehicle component business [5]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is a government-led trading system aimed at reducing carbon emissions, officially launched on July 16, 2021, covering 2,225 enterprises in the power sector with an annual emission coverage of approximately 4.5 billion tons, making it the largest carbon trading market globally [1][2] Group 1: Key Terminology - Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) allows companies to emit a specific amount of CO₂, where 1 allowance equals 1 ton of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e). Companies must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions by the end of the compliance period to avoid penalties [3][4] - Carbon Allowance refers to the emissions permits allocated to companies by the government, with a future trend of decreasing free allowances and increasing paid allowances to incentivize emission reductions [5] - Carbon Trading involves the buying and selling of carbon allowances or reduction credits, primarily through agreements, with potential future inclusion of financial instruments like futures and options [6] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) represents carbon credits generated from projects like renewable energy and forestry, which can offset up to 5% of a company's emissions [7] - The MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) system ensures the accuracy of carbon emission data, serving as the foundation for fair market operations [8] - Carbon Price is the market price for carbon allowances, currently ranging from 50 to 80 RMB per ton, significantly lower than the EU price of approximately 80 Euros per ton, with expectations of gradual increases as policies tighten [9][10] Group 3: Goals and Strategies - Peak Carbon refers to the point at which CO₂ emissions reach their highest level before beginning to decline, with China committing to achieve this by 2030 [11][12] - Carbon Neutrality aims for net-zero emissions by 2060 through emission reductions, carbon sinks, and technological innovations [15] - Carbon Sink involves natural processes, such as forests absorbing CO₂, which can be developed into carbon credit projects [16] Group 4: Financial and Regulatory Aspects - Carbon Finance encompasses financial innovations related to the carbon market, enhancing market liquidity and reducing compliance costs for companies [17] - Carbon Footprint measures the total carbon emissions produced directly or indirectly by individuals, companies, or products throughout their lifecycle [18] - Carbon Border Tax is a proposed tariff on high-carbon imports to balance domestic and international carbon costs, with potential implications for high-carbon exporting companies [19] Group 5: Monitoring and Verification - Carbon Monitoring utilizes technologies like sensors and satellites to track carbon emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, with pilot projects already underway in 16 cities [20][21] - Carbon Accounting systematically quantifies carbon emissions for companies or products over a specific period, adhering to international standards [22] - Carbon Verification involves third-party audits of carbon emission reports to ensure data accuracy, a requirement for major emitters in the national carbon market [27]