美元兑新加坡元看跌价差期权
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高盛-2026年亚洲外汇与利率十大交易策略
Goldman Sachs· 2026-01-19 02:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, indicating a favorable investment environment due to strong economic growth and declining inflation [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights two main themes in the Asian emerging markets: the gradual appreciation of the Renminbi and the end of the Asian interest rate easing cycle, driven by strong economic growth and export performance [5]. - The report suggests that the market is currently in a "Goldilocks" state, characterized by good economic growth and declining inflation, which is favorable for risk assets [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks, technology bubbles, and the independence of the Federal Reserve as potential risk factors [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Trends - U.S. December CPI data was slightly below expectations, while China's December PPI inflation rate was slightly above expectations, with exports growing by 6.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered several structural loan tool rates by 25 basis points and increased their quotas, indicating a credit expansion [1][2]. Currency Strategies - The report recommends a bearish options strategy on USD/SGD, targeting a move towards the 6.80 range in the next 3-6 months, as policy signals indicate Renminbi appreciation [5]. - The report notes that the Renminbi's appreciation has limited spillover effects on low-yield currencies, as it is driven by a significant trade surplus rather than domestic demand [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current low-volatility environment is an opportune time for establishing risk hedges, particularly in the foreign exchange market [4]. - The report anticipates strong industrial value-added data from China, while retail sales and fixed asset investment may show weakness [8].