Economic Outlook - Analysts have slightly raised the Q2 2025 US GDP growth forecast to +2.4% according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, and +1.68% according to the New York Fed Nowcast model[2] - The consensus among 86 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg indicates expected Q2-Q4 2025 GDP growth rates of 2.1%, 0.9%, and 1.2% respectively, with a slight upward revision for Q2 from +2.1%[2] - The probability of the US economy entering a recession within the next year remains at 35%, unchanged from previous estimates[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Analysts have slightly downgraded inflation expectations for the upcoming quarters, with projected CPI growth rates for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 at 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.0%, and 3.1% respectively[2] - The expected PCE growth rates for the same period are 2.4%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.8%, indicating a slight downward adjustment[2] - Analysts maintain the forecast for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q3 2025, with expected policy rate ceilings of 4.25% and 4.00% for Q3 and Q4 2025 respectively[2] Market Performance - US stock markets reached new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.46% and 1.02% respectively, driven by strong earnings reports and a US-Japan trade agreement[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.77 basis points to 4.388%, while the 2-year yield increased by 5.41 basis points to 3.923%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.85% to 97.65, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift[3] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of the US economy weakening more than expected, with potential for Q2 GDP data to fall short of forecasts due to inventory cycle distortions from Q1[2] - The impact of tariffs may lead to preemptive production and consumption activities, potentially suppressing demand-driven inflation and affecting service consumption performance[2] - Upcoming non-farm payroll data for July is anticipated to exceed low market expectations, which could further adjust September's interest rate cut predictions[4]

边际性变化引领美股反弹 美国的"对等关税"政策已持续一个月。据新华社报道，4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫展示签署后的关 于所谓"对等关税"的行政令。政策宣布后的第二个交易日，美国三大股指大幅下跌，当日大约蒸发了 3.1万亿美元市值。 4月份以来，道指累计下跌3.17%，标普500指数下跌0.76%，均为连续第三个月下 跌，纳指一度跌入"技术性熊市"区间。 如何看待美股近一个月来的波动态势？关税政策是否将对美股形成长期冲击？我们来听一听招商证券研 究发展中心宏观经济高级分析师张岸天的分析。 张岸天：近期，海外压力有所缓解，美股反弹主要受几方面因素支撑。其一，在特朗普缓和关税表态构 筑的 "Trump put" 政策底达成后，海外市场对美国推动关税谈判的预期升温，尤其是一些贸易伙伴态度 相对温和。其二，从经济数据和美联储政策来看，4 月 24 日美联储官员释放偏鸽信号，在美元资产被 甩卖、外资流出致美元走弱背景下，美股开启连续数日反弹。美联储官员沃勒表示，若失业率上升，将 支持更快、更大幅降息。同时，近期美国经济数据在前期 Goldilocks（金发女孩经济）趋势下温和放 缓。其三，美股大型科技股财报超预期，进一 ...