Research Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish [1] Core Views - The stock market's liquidity-driven rally since June has ended, and the market is refocusing on fundamentals. The new productive forces sector led by AI has optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, with significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch and promising medium-term profitability. However, the market entered a volatile phase in November. Traditional economic sectors such as consumption and cyclical industries are still in the process of a volatile recovery, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is declining. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with doubts about the actual profitability of AI, the US government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in US tech stocks last week [1]. - On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. In terms of the money market, DR001 dropped 0.1 BP to 1.31%, and DR007 dropped 3 BP to 1.45%. With the central bank's continuous support, the liquidity is reasonably abundant. However, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not high, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is low, so the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, as November enters a brief domestic economic data vacuum period, the bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range [1][2]. Summary by Section 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: On Thursday, the market rose and then fell throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume exceeded 1.72 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH decreased by 0.07%, IF decreased by 0.01%, IC decreased by 0.19%, and IM increased by 0.04% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.02%, the CSI 300 fell 0.05%, the CSI 500 fell 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.11% [3]. 3. Market News - French President Macron will visit China in early December to discuss major issues in the comprehensive strategic partnership between France and China and several major international issues and cooperation areas [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the price trends, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates of treasury bond futures [13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][23][25][27][28]