Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is undergoing a gradual change, with mortgage rates declining and sellers reducing listing prices, indicating a cooling market entering its second adjustment phase since 2022, albeit a mild one [3][4]. Market Trends - The number of active listings has increased, with over 1 million active listings for five consecutive months, and nearly 20% of homes saw price reductions in September [5][6]. - The median listing time for homes rose to 62 days in September, indicating more options for buyers [5]. - The S&P Case-Shiller Index reported a 1.7% year-over-year increase in overall U.S. home prices as of July, with cities like New York, Chicago, and Cleveland seeing the highest increases [5][6]. Regional Analysis - The Northeast and Midwest regions, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Chicago, have shown the best price growth due to previous underperformance during the pandemic [5][6]. - Conversely, cities in the South and West, such as Tampa and Dallas, are experiencing price stagnation or declines due to prior rapid price increases [5][6]. Housing Supply and Demand - The U.S. housing market is still facing a significant supply shortage, with a deficit of 4.7 months of sales, indicating continued upward pressure on prices [6]. - The total net worth of mortgaged residential properties reached a record high of $17.6 trillion, with mortgage delinquency rates at a 34-year low [6]. Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, with expectations of further rate cuts leading to a decrease in mortgage rates since July [7][8]. - As of mid-September, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.26%, improving housing affordability to the best level in two and a half years [8]. Future Outlook - With continued declines in mortgage rates, demand for housing is expected to surge, potentially leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% in the near future [9]. - However, the recent government shutdown may pose short-term challenges to the real estate market [9].

Core Insights - Domestic buyers have regained the top position among foreign buyers in the U.S. real estate market, accounting for 15% of foreign purchases, with 11,700 properties bought in the past year, representing an 83% year-on-year increase [1][3] - The total amount spent by overseas buyers on U.S. residential properties reached $56 billion, a 33.2% increase from the previous year, with a total of 78,100 properties purchased, marking the first year-on-year growth since 2017 [1][3] Buyer Characteristics - 71% of domestic buyers purchase properties in cash, significantly higher than buyers from other countries, with a median purchase price of $759,500, and an average price of $1.2 million, indicating strong purchasing power [4] - Over the past 15 years, domestic buyers have spent a cumulative total of $243 billion on U.S. second-hand homes, with California being the most popular destination, attracting 36% of buyers, followed by Texas and New York [4] Motivations for Purchasing - The primary motivation for many buyers, including notable figures like Sima Nan, is the pursuit of personal or family interests, with asset preservation and global diversification being key reasons for investing in U.S. real estate [5][6] - The U.S. real estate market is perceived as stable, with annual price increases of 4%-6% in core cities over the past decade, making it an attractive option for wealthy families seeking long-term value [6] - The desire for quality education for children is another significant factor, as many buyers target areas with top universities, allowing them to save on rental costs while providing better educational opportunities [8] Legislative Impact - Recent legislative changes in the U.S. have led to increased urgency among domestic buyers, as 26 states have enacted laws prohibiting foreign buyers, particularly from China, from purchasing real estate [9] - The passage of such laws, especially in key markets like Texas, has created a perception of a "last opportunity" for domestic buyers to invest in U.S. properties [10] Concerns and Criticism - There are concerns regarding the source of funds used by domestic buyers, as the high cash payments for properties raise questions about the legitimacy of the money involved [12] - The behavior of certain individuals, such as Sima Nan, who criticize the U.S. while investing there, has drawn criticism and highlighted the complexities of foreign investment in the U.S. real estate market [12]