Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is undergoing a gradual change, with mortgage rates declining and sellers reducing listing prices, indicating a cooling market entering its second adjustment phase since 2022, albeit a mild one [3][4]. Market Trends - The number of active listings has increased, with over 1 million active listings for five consecutive months, and nearly 20% of homes saw price reductions in September [5][6]. - The median listing time for homes rose to 62 days in September, indicating more options for buyers [5]. - The S&P Case-Shiller Index reported a 1.7% year-over-year increase in overall U.S. home prices as of July, with cities like New York, Chicago, and Cleveland seeing the highest increases [5][6]. Regional Analysis - The Northeast and Midwest regions, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Chicago, have shown the best price growth due to previous underperformance during the pandemic [5][6]. - Conversely, cities in the South and West, such as Tampa and Dallas, are experiencing price stagnation or declines due to prior rapid price increases [5][6]. Housing Supply and Demand - The U.S. housing market is still facing a significant supply shortage, with a deficit of 4.7 months of sales, indicating continued upward pressure on prices [6]. - The total net worth of mortgaged residential properties reached a record high of $17.6 trillion, with mortgage delinquency rates at a 34-year low [6]. Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, with expectations of further rate cuts leading to a decrease in mortgage rates since July [7][8]. - As of mid-September, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.26%, improving housing affordability to the best level in two and a half years [8]. Future Outlook - With continued declines in mortgage rates, demand for housing is expected to surge, potentially leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% in the near future [9]. - However, the recent government shutdown may pose short-term challenges to the real estate market [9].

"预测在2026年美国房贷利率将降到5%至6%的区间。"陈跃武说。 美国房地产市场正在慢慢发生变化。 上周，美国抵押贷款利率下降，目前已低于52周平均水平。卖家正在降低挂牌价，活跃房源数量也有所 增加。 美国金鹰房产投资公司执行合伙人陈跃武对第一财经记者表示，近期各专业机构进行了新一轮数据更 新，可以看到美国楼市降温，正进入2022年以来第2个调整期，但此轮调整较为温和，同时美国房产卖 家拥有丰厚净资产，没有被迫卖房的压力。 他解释道，可以看到随着美联储继续降息，美国房贷利率将继续下降。"我们预测在2026年美国房贷利 率将降到5%至6%的区间。" 美国住房金融机构房地美(Freddie Mac)数据显示，截至10月3日，美国30年期固定房贷利率为6.34%。 美国房地产市场仍在调整期 根据Realtor.com发布的2025年9月房地产市场趋势报告，有迹象表明，自2024年以来，房地产市场已经 更加平衡。 首先，市场上的房源数量有所增加：待售房屋供应量连续23个月增长，连续5个月超过100万套活跃房 源。 陈跃武认为，"房价的调整主要集中在佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州的部分地区。这次房价调整将是温和 的。美国房产 ...