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泸州老窖:机制创新,精耕突破-20250305
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-04 19:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's innovative mechanisms and strategic focus on growth, particularly through digital transformation and market penetration strategies [8] - Luzhou Laojiao's core product, Guojiao 1573, remains strong, with annual sales exceeding 400 million bottles and a significant increase in consumer engagement [8] - The company has outlined six strategic shifts to adapt to market changes, focusing on regional market development, consumer-centric approaches, and enhancing profitability through pricing strategies [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Luzhou Laojiao are as follows: - 2022: 25,124 million RMB - 2023: 30,233 million RMB (20.34% YoY growth) - 2024: 30,300 million RMB (0.22% YoY growth) - 2025: 30,443 million RMB (0.47% YoY growth) - 2026: 33,557 million RMB (10.23% YoY growth) [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2022: 10,365 million RMB - 2023: 13,246 million RMB (27.79% YoY growth) - 2024: 13,256 million RMB (0.07% YoY growth) - 2025: 13,294 million RMB (0.28% YoY growth) - 2026: 14,877 million RMB (11.91% YoY growth) [1][9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 133 billion RMB, 133 billion RMB, and 149 billion RMB respectively, maintaining a PE ratio of 14/14/12X [8]
泸州老窖:机制创新,精耕突破-20250304
Soochow Securities· 2025-03-04 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on mechanism innovation and meticulous growth strategies to achieve breakthroughs in 2025 [8] - The company has successfully implemented digital innovation in 2024, leading to significant growth in its core products and consumer engagement [8] - Luzhou Laojiao is adapting its sales strategies to market changes through six major mindset shifts, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and profit maintenance [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 30,233 million RMB in 2023 to 33,557 million RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.23% [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 13,246 million RMB in 2023 to 14,877 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 11.91% [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 9.00 RMB in 2023 to 10.11 RMB in 2026 [1][9] Market Position and Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao's flagship product, Guojiao 1573, is expected to maintain a strong market presence, with the brand's revenue surpassing 20 billion RMB [8] - The company plans to enhance its market penetration through targeted strategies in various regions, focusing on both high-end and mid-range products [8] - The digital transformation initiatives have positioned the company ahead of its competitors in terms of consumer engagement and data utilization [8]