Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, which is below the market expectation of a 0.3% increase, indicating a relief in inflationary pressures at the production level [1] - The year-on-year PPI rose by 2.6% in August, lower than the revised previous value of 3.1% and the market expectation of 3.3% [1] - Service costs fell by 0.2%, marking the largest decline since April, with wholesale profit margins for machinery and vehicles dropping by 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The prices of final demand goods increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with tobacco products leading the rise at 2.3% [1] - Despite expectations for a strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, the unexpected decline in PPI provides the Federal Reserve with more room for easing [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with further cuts anticipated through the end of the year [2]

与美联储会期挂钩的隔夜指数互换合约在周三晚些时候完全消化了9月联邦公开市场委员会会议将降息 25个基点的预期，联邦基金利率 期货合约出现大量交易。纽约时间下午3点前，联邦基金利率期货8月 和10月合约交易活跃，担保隔夜融资利率 期货2025年9月合约出现大量交易。与美联储9月政策会议挂 钩的OIS利率因此降至日内低点，接近4.08%，显示有一次25个基点降息的可能性为100%。从互换曲线 更远端来看，市场目前预计今年剩余3次FOMC会议合计将降息62个基点，而周二收盘时为59个基点。 ...