Core Insights - The report outlines the resilience and differentiation in the U.S. economy for 2025 and the outlook for 2026, predicting a GDP growth rate of 1.8%-2.0% for 2025 and around 2.3% for 2026, influenced by various policy and economic factors [1][2]. Economic Overview - In 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to show a "front low, back high" trend due to policy disruptions, with a temporary negative impact on GDP from net exports and inflation cooling slightly due to tariff expectations [1]. - The second half of 2025 will see a rebound in GDP growth supported by consumer spending, despite rising inflation and employment market pressures [1][2]. Private Consumption - Private consumption in 2026 is projected to exhibit a "K-shaped" differentiation, where high-income groups show strong consumption resilience while low-income groups experience a decline [5][11]. - The overall growth rate for private consumption is expected to be around 2.3%, with a "front low, back high" performance due to employment and inflation pressures in the first half of the year [5][11]. Investment Outlook - Investment in 2026 is anticipated to recover, with inventory investment gradually resuming as tariff uncertainties diminish and fiscal policies take effect [2][19]. - Real estate investment is expected to improve as long-term interest rates decline, while corporate equipment investment will benefit from lower rates and deregulation [2][24][27]. - AI-related investments are projected to slow down due to hardware constraints and previous capacity utilization [2][28]. Employment Market - The employment market signals are complex, with structural imbalances becoming more pronounced, leading to increased uncertainty in 2026 [2][32]. - Non-farm payroll data has shown significant volatility, with downward revisions indicating a weakening labor market, despite a slight decrease in initial unemployment claims [2][32][39]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to rise moderately in 2025, with tariff costs gradually passing through to consumers, particularly affecting low-income households [2][11]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a data-dependent "moderate easing" policy, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2026 [2][19].