专题：2025年国际财经新闻大盘点 巴菲特将卓越成就与智慧洞见相结合，使他成为全球最知名的投资者之一。礼来公司（Eli Lilly）首席 执行官戴维·里克斯称他是"美国商业领袖的拉什莫尔山之一"。通过内容丰富的股东信、动辄数小时、 金句频出的年度股东大会，以及他在工作和个人生活中的选择，巴菲特向全球的CEO和高管们传授了如 何经营企业，甚至如何生活。 这位长期位列全球最富有前十的人物，将于周三卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦集团负责人一职，其门徒格雷格· 阿贝尔将于周四接棒。 在这位标志性投资人卸任之际，多位商业领袖分享了巴菲特留下的经验与教训。 "预测下雨不算数，造方舟才算" 作为记者，我报道过无数次财报发布会，但没有哪一家像伯克希尔·哈撒韦那样有趣，很大程度上是因 为巴菲特堪称商界最出色的沟通者之一。 多年来，沃伦·巴菲特身兼数职：选股能力出众的"奥马哈先知"；爱吃冰淇淋、喝可口可乐、亲切随和 的品牌代言人；也是资本主义及其复杂性的活生生象征。 但对几代商业领袖而言，这位95岁的投资人还扮演着另一个角色：老师。 "我已勉强放弃了在我去世后继续管理投资组合的想法——也放弃了让'跳出框架思考'这个词有全 新含义的希望。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming May CPI data is expected to be a turning point for the U.S. economy, potentially reshaping the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and market risk pricing logic due to the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Predictions - The May CPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, consistent with April's growth, and a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, up from 2.3% in April [2]. - Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, compared to 0.2% and 2.8% in April, respectively [2][4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Economists believe that the May CPI data will mark the beginning of inflation readings related to tariffs, with the impact expected to last until the end of the year [4]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a moderate increase of 5 basis points in core CPI, primarily driven by categories such as entertainment, communications, and furniture [4][6]. Group 3: Transmission Effects - There is concern about the amplification of transmission effects from tariffs, with expectations of a monthly increase of about 10-15 basis points in core inflation from June to August [5][6]. - If significant price acceleration does not occur, the market may debate whether the transmission effects are merely due to data delays or if exporters and retailers are absorbing a larger share of tariff costs [7]. Group 4: Key Trends in CPI Components - Key trends highlighted by Goldman Sachs include a projected 0.5% decrease in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a moderate rise of 0.4% in auto insurance prices [8]. - Categories particularly affected by tariffs, such as clothing, furniture, and education, are expected to see mild upward pressure [8]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Risks - The significance of the CPI data extends beyond short-term market volatility, as it may redefine the Federal Reserve's policy framework and market risk pricing logic [10]. - There is a noted asymmetry in market reactions to inflation shocks, with the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index significantly lower than in April, indicating insufficient preparation for potential shocks [12]. Group 6: Federal Reserve's Stance - The debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation is intensifying, with some officials suggesting that the effects may be more persistent than previously thought [16][17]. - Current market pricing indicates expectations for rate cuts by the end of the year, with a significant probability of multiple cuts [18].