Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of offset printing paper (double - offset paper) is generally weak, with an overall oversupply in recent years, and the pressure of supply surplus will continue to be released [2]. - The short - term trend of double - offset paper futures may be volatile, and there is still a downward risk in price in the long term due to continued capacity expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance on the Listing Day - On September 10th, the listing benchmark price of double - offset paper futures contracts on the Shanghai Exchange was 4,218 yuan/ton, covering contracts OP2601 - OP2608. At the close, the positions and trading volume of the double - offset paper index were 2,945 lots and 21,850 lots respectively, with the position of the main 2601 contract at 2,610 lots, showing average performance [2]. Supply - side Situation - The supply of double - offset paper is in an oversupply state, with continuous capacity expansion in cultural paper and potential peak capacity expansion in the future. There are no new short - term shutdown and maintenance plans, and some previously shut - down production lines in Shandong are planned to resume production [2]. - The cost range of double - offset paper for paper mills is between 4,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest market factory delivery price is 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - side Situation - The peak demand season for double - offset paper is from October to December in the second half of the year, with no significant support from social orders and expected overall stability. The spring semester publishing tender may be postponed to after the National Day [3]. - Considering seasonality, the price in January may have a premium compared to the current spot price, but the situation is still not optimistic due to supply - side pressure [3]. Price Trend Forecast - In the short term, the double - offset paper futures may show a volatile trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to peak - season demand and new capacity expansion. In the long term, prices may decline due to continued capacity expansion [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the upcoming launch of futures and options for coated printing paper on September 10, 2025, by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The coated printing paper industry is characterized by a significant market size, high standardization, stable product quality, and sufficient market competition, making it suitable as a futures underlying asset [5][37] - The production and consumption of coated printing paper in China are projected to be 948,000 tons and 871,000 tons respectively in 2024, with coated paper accounting for approximately 7% of the total paper and board production [10][21] Group 2 - The global production of coated paper in 2023 was approximately 45.72 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, representing 11.2% of the total global paper and board production [7] - The main production regions for coated paper are Asia, accounting for 66.2% of global production, followed by Europe (15.6%), North America (10.1%), and South America (5.8%) [7] - The production cost structure of coated printing paper indicates that pulp accounts for over 70% of production costs, significantly impacting pricing [26][29] Group 3 - The futures contract for coated printing paper will have a trading unit of 40 tons per contract, with a minimum price fluctuation of 2 yuan per ton and a daily price limit of ±4% [31] - The delivery method will be physical delivery, with a certification management system for deliverable products to ensure quality [5][33] - The introduction of coated printing paper futures and options is expected to enhance market liquidity, improve price discovery, and support the risk management needs of the paper industry [37]