2025 年 07 月 15 日 佛燃能源(002911.SZ) 归母净利润 yoy+7%，经营性现金流改 善 事件： 2025 年 7 月 12 日，公司发布 2025 年上半年业绩快报，公司 2025H1 营业总收入为 153.38 亿元（同比+8.59%），归属于上市公司股东的 净利润为 3.09 亿元（同比+7.13%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额 为 6.85 亿元（同比+601.92%）。 上半年业绩符合预期，现金流显著修复： 业务结构优化，供应链驱动增长： 分业务看，其中，城市燃气收入 65.77（同比-4.88%），主要系国内 天然气市场偏弱震荡，气价走弱与消费疲软导致；供应链及其他业 务收入 87.61 亿元（同比+21.52%），成为核心增长引擎。公司依托 能源产业链资源整合优势，拓展能源供应链、工程服务、科技研发 与装备制造，在"能源+科技+供应链"的战略导向下，多元布局释放 增长潜力。 投资建议： 维持"买入-A"投资评级。我们预计公司 2025 年-2027 年的收入增 速分别为 3.9%、9.0%、8.0%，净利润的增速分别为 7.7%、9.7%、 8.7%，对应当前 PE 分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 6.61 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 201.9 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.7 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.6% and 46.0% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 50.73 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7% but a decline of 21.2% in net profit [1]. - The energy and chemical business experienced significant growth, with a revenue increase of 107.3% to 32.99 billion RMB and a gross profit surge of 2558.8% to 690 million RMB in 2024. The sales volume of energy products rose by 157.3% [2]. - The black and non-ferrous supply chains faced challenges, with revenues of 137.91 billion RMB and 1.68 billion RMB respectively, showing a decline of 11.7% and an increase of 88.8%. Gross profit for the black supply chain dropped by 63.3% [3]. - The new business segment, focusing on recycled resources, saw a revenue decrease of 8.2% to 14.12 billion RMB, but gross profit increased by 41.0% to 240 million RMB [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 220.47 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 5.56 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 26.4% from previous estimates. The EPS is expected to be 0.79 RMB [5][7]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be 201.9 billion RMB, with a slight decline of 0.57% compared to 2023 [7]. Business Segments - The energy and chemical supply chain is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant contributions from newly established teams [2]. - The black supply chain is facing a downturn, with a projected revenue drop due to weak demand [3]. - The new business segment is focusing on high-quality development in the recycled steel sector [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 8.4x for 2025, aligning with industry averages, and sets a target price of 6.61 RMB, slightly above the previous estimate [5][9].