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 Applovin:空头轮番上阵?抵不过彪悍的成绩
 海豚投研· 2025-05-08 00:58
 Core Viewpoint - Applovin's Q1 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations, showcasing strong performance despite facing five bearish reports, indicating resilience in its business model and growth strategy [1][11].   Group 1: Revenue and Growth - Applovin achieved total revenue of $1.48 billion in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 40%, surpassing market expectations [19]. - Advertising revenue, which constitutes a significant portion of total revenue, grew by 71% year-over-year, reaching $1.16 billion, contributing to the overall positive performance [19][24]. - The company expects Q2 advertising revenue to approach $3 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter growth of 30-50% [5][28].   Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The EBITDA margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 67.7%, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to effective cost management and operational efficiency [29]. - The sale of its first-party gaming business to Tripledot for $400 million in cash and a 20% equity stake is expected to enhance profitability by focusing on advertising revenue [6][29]. - The company has optimized its workforce and reduced server bandwidth costs, contributing to improved profit margins [6][29].   Group 3: Stock Buyback and Market Response - Applovin has increased its stock buyback program, spending $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, which is 40% of the total buyback amount for the previous year [7]. - Despite strong earnings, the stock price only rose by 14% post-earnings, indicating lingering market skepticism due to previous bearish reports [15].   Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates total advertising revenue to reach between $4.8 billion and $5.1 billion for the year, with a projected EBITDA margin of around 80% [15][27]. - The growth trajectory is expected to continue, with projections for 2026 indicating advertising revenue could reach $6.2 billion, assuming sustained growth in the e-commerce segment [15].