证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 【广发传媒&海外】爱奇艺（IQ） 26 年稳主业，加快海外和体验业务的推进 核心观点： [Table_Page] 季报点评|媒体Ⅱ 盈利预测： EPADS 、 PE 、归母净利润为 NonGAAP 口径 | [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 29,225 | 27,291 | 26,409 | 27,210 | 28,395 | | 增长率(%) | -8% | -7% | -3% | 3% | 4% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 15,615 | 14,828 | 14,741 | 15,561 | 16,744 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,512 | 281 | 15 | 714 | 1,553 | | EPADS（元） | 1.56 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 1.65 | | 市盈率（P/E） ...

2月25日，万达电影跌0.98%，成交额11.92亿元。两融数据显示，当日万达电影获融资买入额1.83亿 元，融资偿还1.52亿元，融资净买入3095.18万元。截至2月25日，万达电影融资融券余额合计16.21亿 元。 分红方面，万达电影A股上市后累计派现11.53亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，万达电影十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股5549.28万股，相比上期增加454.75万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第七大流通股 东，持股1841.08万股，相比上期减少40.79万股。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融资方面，万达电影当日融资买入1.83亿元。当前融资余额16.12亿元，占流通市值的6.90%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，万达电影2月25日融券偿还1.82万股，融券卖出 ...

猫眼娱乐的主要营收由宣传和发行电影相关的娱乐内容服务以及在线娱乐票务服务贡献，少部分收 入来自广告服务及其他。因此，猫眼娱乐的业绩表现与当年电影市场、演出市场的情况息息相关。 需要注意的是，猫眼娱乐2025财年盈利能力大增，与2024财年业绩下滑所致的低基数亦有关联。 2023财年，猫眼娱乐实现营收47.57亿元，年内溢利9.078亿元；而在2024财年，猫眼娱乐娱乐内容服 务、在线娱乐票务服务的收入分别同比减少14.8%、14.9%，年内溢利更是同比下跌约80%。对比来看， 猫眼娱乐虽然2025财年业绩表现同比增长，但仍不及2023财年的水平。 2025年全国演出市场呈现蓬勃向上的发展态势，根据中国演出行业协会发布的《 2025年全国演出 市场简报 》，2025年全国营业性演出票房收入616.55亿元，同比增长6.39%，观众人数同比增长 4.22%。 猫眼娱乐表示，本集团持续投入和发展现场演出业务，GMV创历史新高、并远超行业增速，行业 竞争力进一步增强。值得一提的是，在境外地区，本集团服务的演出品类持续增加，已经拓展至大型演 唱会、体育赛事、剧场类、脱口秀在内的各类演出项目，且境外地区的自营演出业务GM ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinterest's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 21% intra-day due to multiple brokerages downgrading the stock, driven by concerns over slowing advertising growth and a weaker revenue outlook [1] Group 1: Revenue Outlook - Pinterest projected first-quarter revenue between $951 million and $971 million, which is below the average analyst estimate of $980.1 million [2] - The revenue outlook indicates a contrast with stronger recent performances from competitors like Snap and Reddit [2] Group 2: Analyst Downgrades - Analysts at Evercore downgraded Pinterest's stock, citing a sustained deceleration in revenue growth and increasing competition from major platforms such as Google, Meta, and Reddit [3] - Bank of America also lowered its rating, noting that Pinterest's growth gap relative to the broader sector appears to be widening [4] Group 3: Competitive Pressures - The downgrades highlight potential risks from the possible return of TikTok in the U.S. market and the emergence of advertising tools from OpenAI [3] - Increased competition from AI-powered advertising tools at larger platforms could limit Pinterest's ability to secure additional advertising budgets [4] Group 4: Margin and Profit Growth - Bank of America suggested that Pinterest's margin expansion phase may have peaked, which could constrain profit growth moving forward [4]

Group 1 - On February 3, the A-share gaming sector experienced a dramatic V-shaped reversal, with companies like Century Huatong (002602 SZ) initially seeing stock declines due to rumors of increased taxes on internet value-added services, but later rebounding after the rumors were debunked [1] - During the morning session on February 3, several A-share gaming stocks fell, with Century Huatong dropping over 8%, while other companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555 SZ) and Giant Network (002558 SZ) also saw declines. However, by the end of the day, the gaming sector index rose over 3% [1] - The initial drop in stock prices was attributed to rumors suggesting that the financial and internet value-added services, including in-game purchases and advertising, might be targeted for tax rate adjustments, similar to the liquor tax rates [1] Group 2 - On January 31, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the VAT tax rates, increasing the rate for telecom services from 6% to 9%, which could impact the revenue and profits of telecom operators [2] - Various debunking messages emerged on February 3, clarifying that the definition of value-added telecom services excludes mobile data and broadband access services, and that the rumors about gaming tax rates aligning with liquor taxes were based on a misunderstanding of different tax types [3] - Game companies reported that they had not received any official documents regarding tax rate adjustments, and there were no recent meetings or discussions on the topic, indicating skepticism about the validity of the tax increase rumors [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [12][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the end, closing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [15][4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding a potential increase in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) led to market turbulence, particularly affecting Tencent Holdings, which saw its stock drop over 6% intraday and close down 2.92% [14][3] - A brokerage firm clarified that the claim of aligning game tax rates with the 32% rate for liquor is misleading, as the two tax types differ significantly in nature and application [18][6] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The brokerage noted that the rumor is typical market noise, likely stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, and suggested that the actual future tax regulations would focus on reviewing tax incentives for certain companies rather than increasing statutory rates [18][6] - The firm emphasized that the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability, indicating that short-term emotional disturbances do not alter long-term fundamentals [18][6] Precious Metals Market - Following a sharp decline, the precious metals market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [20][8] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the de-dollarization process will continue, and the recent price adjustments do not signify the end of the bull market [20][8] Fund Flows - Southbound funds continued to show small-scale net buying of Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 900 million HKD by the end of the trading day [21][9] Future Outlook - Analysts from Guoyuan International expressed concerns that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market apprehension regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, impacting risk appetite in the Hong Kong market [23][11] - CITIC Securities indicated that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have already undergone significant adjustments, and the spring market trend observed since late December 2025 is likely to continue, with large-cap stocks expected to yield relative returns [23][11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility today, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the close, finishing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding potential increases in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) sparked the market's volatility, leading to Tencent Holdings (HK00700) dropping over 6% at one point and closing down 2.92% [3] - A brokerage firm refuted the rumor, clarifying that the comparison of game tax rates to the 32% tax rate on liquor is misleading, as they are different tax types with distinct legal bases [6] Market Sentiment and Sector Performance - The brokerage indicated that the rumor is likely a market noise stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, suggesting that the actual impact on tax regulations will be limited and manageable [6] - Despite the short-term emotional disturbances, the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability improvements [6] - In contrast, gold stocks saw a rebound, with Zijin Mining International (HK02259) rising over 7% and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (HK03993) and Jiangxi Copper gaining over 6% and 4% respectively [6] Commodity Market Insights - The precious metals market showed signs of stabilization after a sharp decline, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [8] - Long-term views suggest that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and the recent adjustments do not signify the end of the precious metals bull market [8] Future Market Outlook - Guoyuan International noted that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market concerns regarding adjustments in Fed policy, impacting commodity prices, particularly silver, which saw a 26% drop in a single day [10] - CITIC Securities observed that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, and the market may continue its spring rally, with large-cap stocks expected to perform relatively well before the Spring Festival [10]

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of rumors regarding potential tax rate adjustments for the gaming and internet value-added services industry is considered low by industry insiders [1][4][6]. Market Reaction - On February 3, a rumor caused significant fluctuations in the gaming stock market, with Tencent's shares dropping over 6% and NetEase's shares falling more than 3% at one point. However, by the end of the trading day, A-share gaming stocks rebounded, with Century Huatong and Jiubang Technology both rising over 2% [1]. - The gaming index (BK1406) increased by more than 3.4%, with notable gains from companies like Shunwang Technology, which surged by 13.8% [1][2]. Tax Rumor Details - A rumor suggested that the gaming and internet value-added services sectors might face a tax rate increase from 6% to align with the 32% rate applicable to the liquor industry, which could compress profit margins for companies like Tencent [3]. - Industry analysts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such a tax increase, citing the complexity of revenue structures in large companies and the existing tax rates already being in the 15%-25% range [4][5]. Industry Response - Various industry representatives have denied receiving any information regarding the rumored tax changes, with Century Huatong stating that their operations remain normal [4]. - Analysts from Dolphin Investment Research and other firms have indicated that the market reaction is likely an overreaction to the rumors, emphasizing that significant tax changes would require extensive procedural groundwork [5][6]. Legal and Policy Considerations - Legal experts and analysts have pointed out that the rumor lacks a solid legal basis, as the current tax structure is defined by the Value-Added Tax Law, which specifies three tax rates: 13%, 9%, and 6% [6][7]. - The current policy focus is on stabilizing growth and supporting innovation, making a broad tax increase counterproductive to government objectives [8].

Core Insights - Meta's fourth-quarter results exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by strong advertising revenue, leading to a significant increase in share price during after-hours trading [1][5] Financial Performance - The company reported earnings of $22.77 billion, or $8.88 per share, for the October-December quarter, marking a 9% increase from $20.84 billion, or $8.02 per share, in the same period the previous year [1] - Revenue grew by 24% to $59.89 billion from $48.39 billion year-over-year [1] Analyst Expectations - Analysts had anticipated earnings of $8.21 per share on revenue of $58.5 billion, indicating that Meta's performance was significantly better than expected [2] Strategic Positioning - Meta's strong quarterly performance reinforces its status as a leading media company and supports its ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [3] - The company is forecasting revenue for the current quarter between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $51.4 billion [4] Expense Outlook - Meta's expenses rose by 40% to $35.15 billion, with projections for 2026 expenses ranging from $162 billion to $169 billion, primarily due to infrastructure and employee compensation costs [3][4] - The workforce increased by 6% to 78,865 employees at the end of the year, reflecting the company's hiring strategy, especially for AI experts [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tax implications for individuals receiving annual bonuses, emphasizing that they can choose to either calculate the tax separately for the bonus or include it in their comprehensive income [7][11][12] - It is stated that once a taxpayer chooses a method for calculating the annual bonus tax within a tax year, they cannot switch methods for that same bonus [7][10] - The calculation method for the annual bonus tax is detailed, indicating that the bonus amount should be divided by 12 to determine the applicable tax rate and deduction [11][15] Group 2 - The article references specific tax regulations, including the notice from the State Administration of Taxation regarding the adjustment of personal income tax calculation methods for annual bonuses [15] - It highlights that various types of bonuses, such as quarterly or half-year bonuses, must be combined with monthly salary for tax purposes and cannot be treated as annual bonuses [10][12] - The article suggests using the mobile tax app to compare the tax outcomes of different calculation methods to determine the most beneficial option for the taxpayer [13]