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名创优品(09896.HK):2Q业绩超预期 国内拐点已至、海外保持高质成长
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong H1 performance with revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a 21% increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - In Q2, same-store sales showed a low single-digit positive growth, indicating a turning point, with store openings recovering and self-owned IP development showing initial success [2] - As of Q2, the number of domestic stores reached 4,305, an increase of 190 year-on-year, with notable growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [2] - The company signed multiple artists during the reporting period, successfully incubating self-owned IPs such as "Youyou Sauce" and "Glutinous Rice," and will continue a dual strategy of IP collaborations and self-owned IP [2] Group 2: International Performance - In H1, overseas GMV reached 7.33 billion yuan, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with a total of 3,307 overseas stores as of 2025, reflecting a significant increase [2] - The number of stores in Asia (excluding China), North America, Latin America, and Europe increased year-on-year, with Europe showing particularly strong performance [2] Group 3: TOP TOY Performance - TOP TOY accelerated store openings and expanded its self-owned IP matrix, achieving Q2 revenue of 402 million yuan, a remarkable 87.1% increase [3] - As of Q2, the number of TOP TOY stores reached 293, with a year-on-year increase of 35 stores, while online GMV saw a slight decline [3] - The company’s Q2 gross margin was 44.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the higher margin from overseas markets and the increased share of TOP TOY [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.95 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and 4.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [3]