Q3 毛利率44.7%（同比-0.2pct），总体平稳；费用角度，受公司为推动业务发展而对战略性海外直营门 店投资的影响，Q3 总开支14.3 亿元（+43.5%），直营店相关开支（包括租金、折旧及摊销以及剔除股 份支付薪酬的工资）/推广及广告费用/授权费用/物流开支同比+40.7%/+43.3%/+20.8%/+23.3%。 同店复苏趋势有望延续，全球化IP 设计零售定位持续拓展成长空间。展望后续，国内有望受益于大店 战略驱动的渠道优化与产品升级；海外北美市场将深化聚焦型开店策略，进一步释放规模效应。 公司IP 零售集团的成长路径愈发清晰。 盈利预测、估值与评级 机构：国金证券 研究员：赵中平/张杨桓 业绩简评 11 月21 日公司披露25Q3 报告，Q3 营收57.97 亿元（+28%），调整后归母净利润为7.67 亿元（同比 +11.7%）,调整后归母净利率13.2%（同比-2pct）。 经营分析 3Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收29.09/23.12/5.75 亿元（同比（+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%）。 国内名创：Q3 同店高个位数正增、开店环比高增，积极打磨自有IP。 ...

3Q25国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY营收29.09/23.12/5.75亿元(同比(+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%)。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，维持名创优品(09896)"买入"评级，其第三季度业绩稳健，营 收同比增长28%。增长主要由海外业务(尤其是北美市场)的强劲表现和TOPTOY品牌的快速扩张驱动， 基于其清晰的全球化与IP零售战略以及同店复苏趋势，预计25/26/27年公司调整后归母净利分别为 29.6/34.2/42.1亿元，当前股价对应P/E分别为15/13/11X。 国金证券主要观点如下： 业绩简评 11月21日公司披露25Q3报告，Q3营收57.97亿元(+28%)，调整后归母净利润为7.67亿元(同比+11.7%),调 整后归母净利率13.2%(同比-2pct)。 经营分析 Q3毛利率44.7%(同比-0.2pct)，总体平稳;费用角度，受公司为推动业务发展而对战略性海外直营门店投 资的影响，Q3总开支14.3亿元(+43.5%)，直营店相关开支(包括租金、折旧及摊销以及剔除股份支付薪 酬的工资)/推广及广告费用/授权费用/物流开支同比+40.7%/+43.3 ...

业绩简评 11 月 21 日公司披露 25Q3 报告，Q3 营收 57.97 亿元（+28%），调 整后归母净利润为 7.67 亿元（同比+11.7%）,调整后归母净利率 13.2%（同比-2pct）。 经营分析 3Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收 29.09/23.12/5.75 亿元（同 比（+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%）。 国内名创：Q3 同店高个位数正增、开店环比高增，积极打磨自有 IP。Q1/Q2/Q3/M10 国内名创同店中个位数下降/低个位数上升/高 个位数上升/低双位数上升，预计得益于积极开设 IP 大店、换址 或扩建优化同店；截至 Q3 门店数量达到 4407 家（同/环比+157/+ 102 家），其中一/二/三线门店同比+21/+46/+90 家。截至 11 月公 司签约 16 位潮玩艺术家，并积极打磨自有 IP 糯米儿等。 海外名创：增长质量提升，北美同店增长超预期。3QGMV 同比+27. 5%，同店低个位数上升，截至 3Q25 海外总门店数 3424 家，同/环 比+488/+117 家，亚洲（不含中国）/北美洲/拉丁美洲/欧洲门店 数量分别为 1748 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported a 10.17% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 46.74 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.835 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.31% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing store formats and accelerating store openings, with a net increase of 12 stores in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 487 stores [3]. - A partnership with Bandai Namco is expected to create a new growth avenue, with plans to open more stores featuring popular IPs [4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 976 million yuan, a 9.89% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40.04 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.9%, a slight decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 38.53% [2]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has opened 35 new stores and closed 23 in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-consumption cities [3]. - A new standardized store model has been developed to enhance customer acquisition and operational efficiency, resulting in a nearly 20% increase in customer visits and sales [3]. - The company has signed agreements for 30 additional stores to be opened in 2025, indicating a strong commitment to expansion [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits to reach 135 million yuan, 168 million yuan, and 204 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: 3.812 billion yuan in 2025, 4.223 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.765 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 9.96%, 10.77%, and 12.86% respectively [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong H1 performance with revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a 21% increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - In Q2, same-store sales showed a low single-digit positive growth, indicating a turning point, with store openings recovering and self-owned IP development showing initial success [2] - As of Q2, the number of domestic stores reached 4,305, an increase of 190 year-on-year, with notable growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [2] - The company signed multiple artists during the reporting period, successfully incubating self-owned IPs such as "Youyou Sauce" and "Glutinous Rice," and will continue a dual strategy of IP collaborations and self-owned IP [2] Group 2: International Performance - In H1, overseas GMV reached 7.33 billion yuan, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, with a total of 3,307 overseas stores as of 2025, reflecting a significant increase [2] - The number of stores in Asia (excluding China), North America, Latin America, and Europe increased year-on-year, with Europe showing particularly strong performance [2] Group 3: TOP TOY Performance - TOP TOY accelerated store openings and expanded its self-owned IP matrix, achieving Q2 revenue of 402 million yuan, a remarkable 87.1% increase [3] - As of Q2, the number of TOP TOY stores reached 293, with a year-on-year increase of 35 stores, while online GMV saw a slight decline [3] - The company’s Q2 gross margin was 44.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the higher margin from overseas markets and the increased share of TOP TOY [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.95 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and 4.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall tone suggests a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 204.4% year-over-year (yoy) for the first half of 2025, reaching 138.76 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 47.1 billion yuan, reflecting a yoy increase of 362.8% [1] - The company's gross margin for the same period was 70.34%, up by 6.3 percentage points yoy, indicating strong profitability [1] - The overseas business experienced rapid growth, with revenue from international markets reaching 55.93 billion yuan, a yoy increase of 439.6%, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [2][3] Revenue Structure - Domestic revenue in China was 82.83 billion yuan, a yoy increase of 135.2%, with significant contributions from both offline and online channels [2] - The breakdown of domestic revenue includes offline sales of 50.84 billion yuan (yoy +117%), online sales of 58.75 billion yuan (yoy +212%), and wholesale/other sales of 2.61 billion yuan (yoy +9.4%) [2] - The company has expanded its store presence, with 409 stores in mainland China and 34 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, alongside 2,437 robot stores [2] Regional Performance - The Americas led revenue growth with a staggering 1,142.3% increase, totaling 22.65 billion yuan, driven by both online and offline sales [3] - The Asia-Pacific region generated 28.51 billion yuan, a yoy increase of 257.8%, with a notable expansion in offline retail stores [3] - European and other regions saw revenue of 4.78 billion yuan, reflecting a yoy increase of 729.2% [3] IP Matrix and Product Innovation - The company's primary IP, The Monsters series, generated 48.14 billion yuan in revenue, a yoy increase of 668%, contributing 34.7% to total revenue [4] - The LABUBU plush toys emerged as a significant growth driver, with plush products accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [5] - The company launched nearly 20 new plush products for 10 IPs in the first half of 2025, enhancing product diversity and customer engagement [5] Membership and Cost Management - The company registered 59.12 million members in mainland China, with member sales contributing 91.2% of total sales and a repurchase rate of 50.8% [5] - The expense ratio decreased to 28.8%, down by 10.6 percentage points yoy, indicating improved cost management [5] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to enter a high-growth cycle, with projected net profits of 100.2 billion yuan, 149.3 billion yuan, and 181.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

Summary of Conference Call for 爱婴室 (Aiyingshi) Company Overview - 爱婴室 is a leading company in the maternal and infant products industry, established in 1997, and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2018. The company operates a business model based on membership, products, channels, and services, providing a range of maternal and infant goods and services [4][15]. Industry Insights - The maternal and infant industry market size exceeds 4 trillion RMB, with the retail market size around 1 trillion RMB. Recent policies promoting childbirth have shown positive effects, with some regions reporting a 17% increase in birth rates in 2024 [15][16]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, 爱婴室 achieved a revenue growth of 22%, marking its best performance in recent quarters. The gross margin remains stable at 26%-27%, while net profit margin has improved from a peak of 6.27% in 2019 to 3% in recent times [2][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 4 billion RMB, 4.47 billion RMB, and 4.88 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 12%, and 9% respectively. Profit estimates for the same period are 137 million RMB, 167 million RMB, and 190 million RMB, with growth rates of 29%, 22%, and 15% [3]. Store Expansion and Operations - The number of stores has rapidly increased from 292 in 2020 to 471 currently, with expectations to reach 500 by the end of the year. Single-store revenue is projected to reach 7.3 million RMB in 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year, and is expected to exceed 8 million RMB this year [2][6]. Strategic Partnerships and Diversification - 爱婴室 is actively expanding its business by collaborating with 万代南梦宫 (Bandai Namco) to open 高达基地 (Gundam Base) stores, entering the IP retail sector. The company’s own brand products now account for approximately 13% of total sales, with a gross margin 20 percentage points higher than general brands [2][5][15]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces several risks, including: 1. The effectiveness of childbirth policies may fall short of expectations. 2. Increased competition within the industry, although leading companies may gain market share as smaller firms exit the market. 3. Uncertainty surrounding the expansion of IP retail, particularly with projects like 高达基地 [16][17]. Key Takeaways - 爱婴室 is positioned well within a growing industry, with strong financial performance and strategic partnerships enhancing its market presence. However, it must navigate potential risks related to policy effectiveness and competitive pressures while continuing to innovate and expand its product offerings [4][15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **U.S. Inflation Analysis**: Bank of America (BofA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Credit Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Lithium Supply in China**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Global Natural Gas Market**: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Baijiu Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Chinese IP Retail and Toys**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Inflation Analysis 1. **CPI Performance**: In July, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased more than expected due to a rebound in energy prices, while core CPI growth was slightly below market expectations, indicating a counterbalancing effect between components [1][2][5] 2. **Energy Price Impact**: The significant rise in energy prices, particularly gasoline, was a major factor driving the overall CPI above expectations, attributed to rising crude oil prices and reduced refinery maintenance [2][6] 3. **Core Inflation Trends**: Core CPI's decline was primarily due to falling used car prices, easing service inflation, and a slowdown in rent increases, aligning with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a gradual cooling of core inflation [3][6] 4. **Market Predictions**: Despite short-term energy price volatility, the sustained decline in core inflation supports the Fed's current policy stance, with a slight increase in market expectations for rate cuts later in the year [6][10] Chinese Credit Market 1. **Historic Loan Decline**: In July, China's new RMB loans turned negative for the first time in 20 years, reflecting weak credit demand compounded by seasonal factors [14][18] 2. **Loan Demand Disparity**: There was a significant drop in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, indicating insufficient investment willingness, while residential loans remained weak due to poor real estate sales [15][18] 3. **Seasonal and Regulatory Effects**: The decline in credit data was influenced by seasonal repayment peaks and stricter financial regulations, which limited loan issuance [16][18] 4. **Policy Implications**: The negative loan growth, although partly driven by short-term factors, indicates insufficient credit demand amid a sluggish economic recovery, prompting expectations for increased counter-cyclical policy measures [18] Lithium Supply in China 1. **Supply Chain Overview**: China plays a crucial role in the global lithium supply chain, being the largest importer of lithium concentrate and a significant producer of lithium carbonate and hydroxide [24] 2. **Future Supply Growth**: Domestic production expansions and strategic partnerships with overseas mining companies are expected to drive lithium supply growth in the coming years [25] 3. **Supply Uncertainties**: The lithium supply faces uncertainties related to extraction technology efficiency, cost control, and geopolitical factors that could impact imports [26] 4. **Price Dynamics**: The interplay of strong demand and supply growth uncertainties will directly influence lithium price trends [27][28] Global Natural Gas Market 1. **Transition Role of Natural Gas**: Natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source in the context of global energy decarbonization, with resilient demand in power generation and industrial sectors [30] 2. **Policy-Driven Demand Changes**: Carbon reduction policies may increase the cost of natural gas usage in certain industries, affecting long-term consumption patterns [31] 3. **Regional Market Dynamics**: The U.S. focuses on export and infrastructure upgrades, while Europe may see a significant decline in natural gas demand due to energy security policies [32] 4. **Investment Implications**: Policy trends will shape global natural gas supply chain investments, potentially diverting capital expenditures towards renewable energy and hydrogen sectors [33] Chinese Baijiu Market 1. **Policy and Market Balance**: Recent macro and industry policies aim to balance growth stimulation and risk control, impacting the demand recovery pace in the baijiu industry [35] 2. **Wholesale Price Trends**: Major high-end baijiu brands continue to experience weak wholesale prices, reflecting initial recovery stages in channel confidence and end-demand [36] 3. **Channel Dynamics**: The recovery in terminal sales is uneven, with cautious restocking by distributors due to demand uncertainties [37] 4. **Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for high-end brands remains resilient, with a focus on inventory reduction and policy effects on demand improvement [39] Chinese IP Retail and Toys 1. **Labubu Series Price Adjustment**: The premium level of the Labubu series has recently declined due to increased supply and waning consumer novelty, though overall demand remains high [41] 2. **Stable Prices for Other IPs**: Other major IPs have maintained stable prices, indicating sustained consumer interest in diverse IP offerings [42] 3. **Expansion of IP Collaborations**: Miniso is actively expanding collaborations with various IPs, enhancing product freshness and driving sales growth [43] 4. **Market Dynamics**: Offline channels remain core to IP retail, with significant traffic increases during peak seasons, while online platforms provide price references [44] 5. **Long-term Growth Drivers**: The long-term growth of the IP retail and toy market will depend on operational capabilities, content iteration, and channel optimization [45] Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) 1. **Performance Exceeds Expectations**: TME's Q2 performance surpassed market expectations, driven by growth in online music subscriptions and improved advertising revenue [46] 2. **User Growth**: The number of paid online music users continues to rise, with an increase in ARPPU, reflecting ongoing optimization in content supply and user engagement [47] 3. **Diversification of Revenue**: TME is actively expanding revenue sources beyond core music services, benefiting from advertising and deep collaborations with artists [48] 4. **Profitability Improvement**: Enhanced operational efficiency and cost control have led to improved profit margins, particularly in content and bandwidth costs [49] 5. **Upgraded Annual Guidance**: Based on strong Q2 results and upcoming activities, TME has raised its annual performance guidance, with medium to long-term growth reliant on diversified revenue and global strategies [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while Miniso's Q1 2025 revenue met expectations, the significant increase in marketing expenses led to core operating profits falling short of market forecasts [1][4][6] Group 2 - Overall revenue for Q1 2025 reached 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19%, aligning with expectations. Domestic revenue was 2.84 billion RMB, up 13.3%, while overseas revenue was 1.59 billion RMB, growing 30% [2][14] - The company has slowed its store opening pace, with a net decrease of 111 domestic stores, marking the first decline in total store count. Closures were primarily in lower-tier cities, while first-tier cities focused on optimizing store locations [3][17] - Same-store sales growth in China showed a narrowing decline, while overseas performance remained flat. New product categories and partnerships with Meituan enhanced store efficiency [24][25] - Gross margin remained stable at 44%, despite rising overseas procurement costs. The increase in IP licensing fees (up 40%) and significant rent and depreciation costs (up 71%) led to a marketing expense ratio of 23.1% [27][29] - Core operating profit and adjusted EBITDA were 710 million RMB and 1.04 billion RMB, respectively, both below market expectations [4][29] Group 3 - The article highlights that Miniso's strategy of relying on IP licensing has resulted in a lower premium compared to competitors with stronger original design capabilities, indicating a potential risk in profitability [6][7] - The increase in rental costs is attributed to the expansion of overseas direct stores, particularly in North America, raising concerns about the profitability of these operations [8][26] - Future performance is expected to improve as same-store sales in major markets, including the U.S., have turned positive since April, suggesting potential for marginal improvement in upcoming quarters [8][6]