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潮宏基(002345):Q1净利率提升,看好估值重估机会
HTSC· 2025-04-29 07:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million RMB, a decrease of 41.9% primarily due to goodwill impairment in the women's bag business. Excluding this impact, the net profit was 350 million RMB, down 5.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.252 billion RMB, up 25.4%, with a net profit of 189 million RMB, an increase of 44.4% [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's jewelry brand revenue and operating profit increased by 13.3% and 12.8% respectively, outpacing the 9.8% growth of the gold jewelry market. The self-operated revenue was 3.017 billion RMB, down 7.4%, while franchise revenue was 3.28 billion RMB, up 32.4%. The overall gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points in 2024 and increased by 2.0 percentage points in Q1 2025, driven by improved expense efficiency [2][3] Brand Positioning - The company targets the young demographic aged 25-40, integrating Eastern culture with modern fashion. Its unique craftsmanship and design align with consumer willingness to pay for quality, especially in a high gold price environment. Collaborations with popular IPs are expected to enhance average transaction values and mitigate gold price volatility risks [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 16% and 23% to 500 million RMB and 610 million RMB respectively. The target price is set at 11.80 RMB, based on a 21x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting strong growth momentum due to enhanced product and brand strength [4][8]