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商业市场租赁需求释放承压,REITs二季度业绩分化持续
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 14:03
Group 1: Market Overview - The retail market in core cities shows differentiated supply rhythms, with cities like Beijing and Shenzhen leading in new supply, while cities like Hangzhou show no new supply, indicating varying levels of commercial development activity [3] - The net absorption rate reflects resilience in demand, with Shenzhen leading at 29.8 thousand square meters, while Chengdu shows a negative absorption of -4 thousand square meters due to market adjustments and brand closures [3] Group 2: Vacancy Rates and Rental Levels - Vacancy rates vary significantly among cities, with Shenzhen having the lowest at 4.1%, while Shanghai and Chengdu have higher rates at 8.6% and 9% respectively, influenced by new supply and project adjustments [4] - In terms of rental levels, Shanghai has the highest average rent at 31.9 yuan/day/sqm, while Shenzhen has the lowest at 18.1 yuan/day/sqm; Nanjing leads among second-tier cities at 22.5 yuan/day/sqm, with Chengdu at the bottom at 11.9 yuan/day/sqm [4] Group 3: REIT Performance - Different REITs show varied performance metrics, with 华夏华润商业 REIT achieving the highest revenue at 18,319.83 thousand yuan, attributed to its large asset base and strong brand appeal [6] - 华夏首创奥莱 REIT and 华安百联消费 REIT, while smaller in revenue, have business models that may yield higher profit margins and stable cash flows [7] - The cash flow to revenue ratio for 华夏华润商业 REIT is notably high at 68%, indicating effective conversion of revenue into cash flow [8] Group 4: Major Transactions - 英格卡 plans to sell 10 shopping centers in China, with the first three located in Wuxi, Beijing, and Wuhan, involving a total of 16 billion yuan, as part of a strategy to improve cash flow and shift towards a light asset operation model [5] - The sale reflects the need for financial improvement, as 英格卡 reported a 5.5% decline in revenue to 41.8 billion euros and a 46.5% drop in net profit to 806 million euros for the 2024 fiscal year [5] Group 5: Upcoming Developments - 天虹股份 has received formal acceptance for its public REIT project based on the Suzhou Xiangcheng Tianhong Shopping Center, which has undergone significant upgrades and is expected to have a distribution rate of 4.92% in 2026 [10] - The project has shown consistent sales growth from 605 million yuan in 2022 to 726 million yuan in 2023, with rental efficiency improving from 113.91 yuan/sqm/month to 148.86 yuan/sqm/month [10][11]