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淡季基本面平淡,仍以配置为主线
Guodu Securities· 2025-03-05 00:47
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][26] Core Views - The sector experienced a rebound of 2.3% this week, primarily due to a systematic market rebound, although the fundamental feedback remains subdued [4][9] - The liquor sector has seen a relatively smooth landing during the Spring Festival, but it is now entering a low season with both demand and inventory under pressure, making it unlikely for the fundamentals to improve significantly [4][6] - The consumer goods sector continues to recover, with policies like "consumption vouchers" in cities like Shanghai potentially benefiting the restaurant supply chain [4][6] - The overall sector may lack short-term catalysts and is expected to remain relatively weak, but there is potential for gradual improvement throughout the year [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival sales were relatively stable, but the industry is now entering a low season with weak demand, leading manufacturers to control supply and maintain prices [6] - The price of Moutai remains stable at around 2250 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye is around 930 yuan per bottle [11] - The sector's fundamentals are becoming less influential on market trends, with a growing sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and capital changes [6] Consumer Goods Sector - The introduction of "consumption vouchers" in Shanghai is expected to have a marginally positive impact on consumer goods [6] - Sales during the Spring Festival showed a slight recovery, particularly in condiments and snacks, although overall performance remains relatively weak [6] - Raw material prices, such as milk and sugar, are on a downward trend, which is favorable for profit margins [6][17] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Tianwei Food, Anjui Food, Yili, Haitian Flavoring, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Yanjing Beer [4][6]