如何看待茅台估值修复机会？ | [Tabl 分析师： | 符蓉 | 分析师： | 周源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 | | | SFC CE.no: BWC944 | | | | | 021-38003552 | | fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Report] 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 食品饮料行业:春节走访：五省白酒动销跟踪反馈 | 2026-02-24 | | 食品饮料行业:春节走访：成都市场跟踪 | 2026-02-13 | | 食品饮料行业:乳品深加工：广阔天地，龙头领航 | 2026-02-13 | [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 2 ...

机构观点 股票近期走势 股价近期表现疲软：截至2月12日收盘报15.81美元，近5日累计下跌2.95%，区间振幅达5.95%。2月6日 至12日，成交量从86.35万股收缩至30.79万股，交投趋于清淡。同期所属农产品板块下跌0.97%，美股 大盘道琼斯指数下跌1.34%，公司股价表现弱于板块及大盘。 经济观察网都乐食品(DOLE.N)近7天热点集中于公司行动与业绩展望。2026年2月12日，公司董事会授 权1亿美元股份回购计划，旨在优化资本结构并提升股东回报，该计划于2025年第三季度后启动。同 时，公司对2025年全年业绩保持乐观，预计调整后EBITDA将处于3.8亿至3.9亿美元区间上端。行业层 面，2026年大众品景气度有望回升，成本端压力边际缓解，或为外部支撑因素。 机构观点分化但偏乐观：2026年2月数据显示，5家机构中60%给予"买入或增持"评级，目标均价17.50美 元，较当前股价存在溢价。盈利预测方面，机构预计2025年第四季度每股收益0.127美元，同比增长 64.94%；全年营收预计同比增长12.45%，增长动力或从价格驱动转向销量驱动。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受2025Q4春节错峰不利影响，2025Q4大众品基本面预计环 比走弱，若抛开春节季节性影响仅观察9~11月，大众品行业需求有企稳迹象。成本费用端看，多数原 材料成本红利延续但有所收窄，行业竞争虽然维持较高强度但边际已经趋缓。餐供板块是大众品板块中 少有的25Q4基本面环比Q3改善的，主要受益经销商补库以及竞争缓和。 饮料：行业竞争激烈，企业表现分化。 餐饮供应链：2025Q4需求平淡但细分赛道表现亮眼。 2025Q4下游餐饮景气度整体平淡，但可观察到部分细分赛道(例如火锅)受旺季影响有所改善，且由于春 节错期基数影响，预计各企业收入端表现分化。盈利端，预计25Q4猪肉、面粉、白糖等多数原料价格 维持偏低位震荡，但已有油脂、进口乳制品等价格上涨，此外行业价格战失效逐渐成为共识，竞争趋缓 可期。 零食：2025Q4零食板块基本面环比走弱，2026Q1受益春节备货有望环比走高。 25Q4因春节错峰不利影响、新品类及新渠道成长红利走弱以及部分原料成本高企，预计零食板块单季 度基本面环比走弱。考虑到2026Q1春节零食礼盒备货驱动以及部分原料成本高位走低，预计零食板块 基本面环 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that the consumer demand in 2026 is expected to improve, and given the low level of active equity fund holdings in the food and beverage sector, the rating of "Leading the Market" is maintained [6] Summary by Sections Overall Sector Performance - In Q4 2025, the active equity fund's heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector decreased slightly, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.2 percentage points. The total market capitalization of the food and beverage sector was 43,559 billion, down 5.36% from Q3 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.64 percentage points [6][8] Subsector Analysis - In Q4 2025, the heavy holdings in the liquor sector decreased, while the heavy holdings in the consumer goods sector increased. The heavy holdings in liquor were 2.93%, down 0.25 percentage points, while the consumer goods sector's heavy holdings were 1.12%, up 0.15 percentage points [6][19] Key Companies - Only Kweichow Moutai entered the top 20 heavy holdings of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector. The heavy holding ratio for Kweichow Moutai remained stable, while other liquor companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao saw decreases [6][36] Stock Connect Analysis - In Q4 2025, the food and beverage sector's holdings in the Stock Connect accounted for 5.4% of the total market value, down 0.92 percentage points, with an overweight ratio of +1.52 percentage points [6][39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector is positioned for potential growth, with a maintained rating of "Leading the Market" due to expected improvements in consumer demand and low fund holdings [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid recovery in wholesale prices. The price of Moutai increased from 1610 RMB to 1710 RMB within two days, indicating a strong upward trend [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in. A weak recovery in demand is anticipated as policy pressures ease, and the industry is expected to undergo a clearer phase of performance improvement [2] - The report highlights that the white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 1.56% in the week of January 26-30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%. The white liquor sector led the gains with a 3.86% increase [3][8] - The report notes a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and health products experiencing declines of 6.07% and 5.59%, respectively [3] Moutai's Market Dynamics - Moutai's management is pushing for market-oriented reforms, reducing the supply of non-standard products and eliminating bundled sales, which has alleviated pressure on distributors and reduced channel selling pressure [3] - The demand side is benefiting from concentrated gift-giving during the Spring Festival, alongside the expansion of the i Moutai channel, which allows consumers to purchase at fair prices, leading to sustained incremental demand [3] Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly to 4.1%, with a notable reduction in white liquor holdings. However, there is a marginal increase in allocations towards consumer goods, indicating a search for more certain and better-valued targets within the consumption sector [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of 4Q2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter[9] - The food and beverage sector ranks 7th among all industries in terms of heavy stockholding ratio, falling one position[9] - The total net asset size of the sample funds is approximately 3.98 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings valued at 240 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - Both active and passive funds reduced their allocations to the food and beverage sector, with active equity funds decreasing by 0.2 pct to 3.9% and passive index funds decreasing by 0.6 pct to 8.4%[15] - The allocation to the liquor sector decreased by 0.4 pct to 5.1%, while the allocation to consumer goods increased by 0.1 pct to 0.9%[19] Group 3: Stock Performance - Among the top 20 heavy stockholdings, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, with its holding ratio decreasing by 0.08 pct to 2.97%[23] - The leading liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw their holding ratios decline, while stocks in the consumer goods sector, such as Yurun Agriculture and Ximai Foods, experienced significant increases in holdings[27] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain and snack sectors, particularly during the Spring Festival period, which is expected to support industry improvement[29] - Key stocks to watch include those in the restaurant chain (e.g., Anjijia Foods, Angel Yeast) and snack sector (e.g., Wancheng Group, Wei Long) due to their potential for growth[29] Group 5: Risks - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in consumer spending, increased competition in the food and beverage industry, and potential food safety issues that could impact company operations and brand reputation[30]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（1 月第 7 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]许可 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 | | SFC CE No. BUY008 | | | 0755-88285832 | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 符蓉 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | | | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-01-30 00:22:10 1 / 3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 交通运输：美伊冲突对油运的潜在影响：供给扰动主导，运价具备上行 弹性。未来的发展存在三种可能性：1.极限施压 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio decreased to 6.1% in Q4 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from Q2 2025, with an excess allocation of +2.4 percentage points compared to Wind All A [1] - The proportion of active equity funds holding food and beverage stocks fell to 32.3% in Q4 2025, while passive funds increased to 63.3% [1] - The liquor sector has experienced a four-year adjustment period and is expected to see a "valuation + performance" double bottom [1] Group 2 - In the liquor segment, the fund holding ratio slightly decreased, with a total and active equity holding ratio of 5.1% and 2.9% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points [2] - The excess allocation for liquor funds is at +2.7 percentage points for total and +0.5 percentage points for active equity [2] - The holding ratio for consumer goods increased slightly to 0.97% in Q4 2025, although it remains in a low allocation state [2] Group 3 - The holding ratio for individual liquor stocks generally declined, with Kweichow Moutai remaining the only food and beverage company in the top 20 heavy stocks, dropping from second to fourth place [3] - The holding ratio for Shanxi Fenjiu rose to second place among liquor stocks [3] - Some leading consumer goods companies, such as Yili and Anjiexin Foods, saw a noticeable increase in fund holding ratios and the number of funds holding them in Q4 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio continues to decline, with a slight recovery in the allocation of consumer goods [6][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a slight decrease in stockholding ratios, while consumer goods have shown some recovery [6][31] - The report highlights a potential for recovery in the white liquor sector after a four-year adjustment period, with expectations for both valuation and performance to stabilize [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holding Overview - As of Q4 2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from Q2 2025, with a total market value of 43.998 billion CNY [14][21] - The allocation of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector has decreased to 32.3%, while passive funds have increased to 63.3% [21][22] 2. Sub-industry Holding Analysis (1) White Liquor Sector - The heavy stockholding ratio for white liquor has decreased to 5.1%, with an allocation of +2.7 percentage points [31][33] - Active equity funds' heavy stockholding ratio for white liquor is 2.9%, down 0.3 percentage points [31][33] (2) Consumer Goods - The heavy stockholding ratio for consumer goods has increased to 0.97%, but remains in a low allocation state [47][51] - Key sub-sectors such as dairy and seasoning products have shown a recovery in stockholding ratios [47][51] 3. Individual Stock Analysis - Among the top 20 heavy stocks, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, dropping from second to fourth place [6][31] - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yili [6][31] 4. Sector Overview - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with expectations for moderate price increases in 2026 [6][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of new products and channels for individual stock performance [6][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The traditional consumer leaders in the food and beverage sector are exploring new paths, with initial positive results observed. The report highlights the acceleration of white liquor clearance and the catalyzing effect of the peak season for mass-market products [1][13]. - The report discusses the current state of the liquor market, indicating that the洋酒 (foreign liquor) sector is at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations for sales to stabilize over the next three years. The decline in high-end whiskey prices has been approximately 50%, while brandy prices have decreased by 10-20% [10]. - In the mass-market segment, companies are actively adjusting their strategies, leading to improved performance. Notable companies include仙乐健康 (Xianle Health),西麦 (Ximai), and妙可蓝多 (Miaokelando), which are leveraging new channels and product innovations to drive growth [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Meeting Feedback -洋酒 is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with future sales expected to stabilize. The decline in sales is attributed to decreased demand and a return to reasonable pricing after previous high valuations [10]. - In the mass-market segment, there is a divergence in demand, with companies making adjustments that are starting to yield results. Growth is seen in functional foods and cheese products, while traditional sectors are still facing challenges [11]. 2. Investment Recommendations - For white liquor, the report recommends focusing on茅台 (Moutai) and古井 (Gu Jing), anticipating a recovery in demand as the Spring Festival approaches. The report suggests that the market is transitioning from passive responses to proactive adjustments, with a clearer outlook as the year progresses [13]. - In the mass-market segment,重点推荐安琪 (Anqi) and selected opportunities in餐供 (restaurant supply) such as安井 (Anjing) and巴比 (Babi). The report emphasizes the potential for growth in overseas markets and the importance of cost management [13].