国泰海通发布研报称，2025年1-11月服务消费(文化娱乐、餐饮、教育)同比增长5.4%，必选消费(食品、 日用品)韧性凸显，成为行业复苏核心动力。在促消费政策托底与基本面修复预期下，2026年消费行业 大概率延续温和复苏态势，重视CPI主线驱动下的复苏机会(复苏弹性排序：服务业>大众品>高端消 费)，重视新消费(成长赛道)孕育出的结构性机会。 中国经济增长动力由"商品消费驱动"转向"服务消费驱动"，展望2026年，消费市场复苏弹性取决于价格 (CPI驱动)，从价格传导机制来看，复苏弹性呈现"服务业>大众品>高端消费"的排序。①服务业：作为 2026年消费复苏的核心引擎，服务业凭借"供给弹性低、需求刚性强"的特征，有望率先受益于CPI回升 与需求释放，文旅服务、健康服务、教育服务等细分领域值得重点关注;②大众品：食品、日用品等作 为居民生活不可或缺的必需品，"需求刚性强、消费频次高"的属性使其在CPI回升周期中具备较强的成 本转嫁能力，同时扩内需政策中针对下沉市场的消费激励举措，将进一步拓宽大众品的需求空间;③高 端消费：高端白酒、免税、奢侈品、高端家电等受经济预期及财富效应影响较大，其复苏过程需要经 历"经 ...

报告来源 2025年消费行业复盘：经济疲弱叠加外部冲击对消费行业的影响，已经在2025年四季度充分体现。 通过跟踪消费核心指标——社零数据（全国+一线城市）、 全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额、就业数据、人均可支配收入、消费者信心指数等，基本面数据大多已在四季度触底，2025年消费行业呈现"企稳回升、结构 优化、信心修复"的特征。支撑端主要来自服务消费复苏及基础消费韧性，1-11月服务消费（文化娱乐、餐饮、教育）同比增长5.4%，必选消费（食品、日用 品）韧性凸显，成为行业复苏核心动力。 2026年消费复苏方向：中国经济增长动力由"商品消费驱动"转向"服务消费驱动"，2026年消费市场复苏弹性取决于价格（CPI驱动），从价格传导机制来看， 复苏弹性呈现"服务业 >大众品 >高端消费"的排序。 ①服务业：作为2026年消费复苏的核心引擎，服务业凭借"供给弹性低、需求刚性强"的特征，有望率先受 益于CPI回升与需求释放，文旅服务、健康服务、教育服务等细分领域值得重点关注；②大众品：食品、日用品等作为居民生活不可或缺的必需品，"需求刚性 强、消费频次高"的属性使其在CPI回升周期中具备较强的成本转嫁能力，同时扩内需政策 ...

涨价信号：景气发轫与延续的新线索 央行四季度例会指出"促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升"，价格信号的重要性日趋凸显。自2025年下半 年起，随着国内反内卷政策推进，叠加全球弱美元的宽松环境，涨价逻辑在部分领域逐步开启。 具体来看，三大领域值得关注：一是需求改善但供给收缩的化工板块，如有机硅、制冷剂、农药、溴 素、PTA等，以及新能源领域的碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂、多晶硅等；二是需求急剧扩张令供给短期难以跟 上的TMT供应链，如存储芯片、覆铜板、电子布等；三是金融与需求属性同步提升的有色板块，如贵 金属、工业金属与小金属等。 2026 年开年以来，A 股市场迎来多重积极信号。国泰海通证券发布研报，认为政策预期、流动性与基 本面共振上修，A 股市场有望迎接春季"开门红"。涨价信号下，产业景气正在发轫与延续。行情看好的 重点在科技、非银、消费。 春季行情逻辑：三大支撑因素 海外流动性宽松预期升温。 美联储下任主席谜底即将揭晓，市场开始憧憬2026年美国降息前景。海外 流动性宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望推动人民币稳定与升值，为A股市场提供有利的外部环境。 增量资金持续涌入。 以A500ETF为代表的增量资金持续流入市场，叠加险 ...

在全球经济格局深度调整与科技竞争加剧的背景下，中国新兴产业正经历从"规模追赶"到"价值重估"的 历史性转变。本文系统性梳理了海内外先进制造、科技、大消费三大领域近百家龙头公司所处的基本面 位置以及估值水平，发现在先进制造领域，中国公司已展现出较高的产业成熟度和更强的全球竞争力， 盈利能力突出且估值更具性价比；硬科技正经历从"跟跑"到"并跑"的关键阶段，应用端具备较好地估值 性价比与成长空间；商品消费已展现出较强的盈利能力，但全球化程度仍待提升，服务消费尚处发展初 期，经济结构转型下成长空间广阔。 新兴科技：硬科技加速追赶，应用估值性价比显著。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，当前，中国新兴科技产业（如半导体、创新药、通信设 备）整体仍处于成长初期，在营收规模和盈利能力上与国际龙头尚有差距，但资本市场已给予较高估 值，体现了对技术自主与产业追赶的乐观预期，后续具备技术壁垒、国产替代空间大的方向将更受益。 相比之下，互联网等应用端龙头企业的盈利预测不弱于海外龙头，且估值水平更具吸引力。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 从全球比较视野，看中国龙头公司重估机会。 推荐：1）受益于盈利能力和全球竞争优势突出，估 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - A-shares are recommended for investment due to their relative advantages, with a current win rate of 19% and a return to neutral levels in terms of odds [3] - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with defense and military showing a 55.9% increase over the past year, while banking and coal industries have underperformed [1] - The report emphasizes the potential growth in the semiconductor market driven by advancements in power supply technology and the demand for SiC devices, with a projected market size of approximately $1.15 billion by 2030 [8] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies, as well as internet firms benefiting from AI advancements [2] - In the food and beverage sector, the report recommends investing in both premium liquor brands and consumer staples, highlighting companies like Moutai and Yili for their recovery potential [5] - The report suggests that the advanced packaging and AR glasses markets could provide new growth opportunities for SiC devices, driven by increased power density in AI data centers [8]

上周A股市场整体呈现震荡调整格局，主要宽基指数涨跌分化，市场结构性特征显著。其中，科技应用 有所走强，石油石化连续两周大涨，商业行业继续推升军工板块热度，但新能源行业回调。 行业方面，石油石化、军工（商业航天）、传媒计算机（AI应用与数字人民币）、机械设备（机器 人）行业等领涨，公用事业、电力设备等转跌。 宏观分析：国内12月PMI逆季节性回升，预期改善 国内方面，制造业PMI逆季节性回升，企业预期明显改善。统计数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业PMI 为50.1%，比11月上升0.9个百分点，自4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业 PMI较11月出现回升。 主要原因在于：一是贸易环境持续优化，外需订单回补成为主要驱动力；二是国内政策加大逆周期和跨 周期调节力度；三是能源保供和部分行业复产也推动了PMI的改善，服务业和建筑业景气度上升，供需 修复带动12月PMI反弹。我们认为，政策支持下，短期内内需有望持续改善，但需关注价格波动风险。 政策面来看，宏观政策更加积极有为，节奏有望靠前发力。具体来看，第一，财政部提前下达2026年新 增地方政府债务限额。第二，发改委组织下达2026年提前 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment last week, with significant divergence among major indices and notable structural characteristics in the market [1] - Technology applications strengthened, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw consecutive weeks of gains; the commercial sector continued to boost the military industry, but the new energy sector faced a pullback [1] Macro Analysis - In December, the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, rising to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time since April that it entered the expansion zone [2] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported a PMI increase compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions, increased external demand, and domestic policy adjustments [2] - Key macro policies include early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026 and a total of approximately 295 billion yuan allocated for early construction projects, aimed at accelerating fund disbursement [2] Overseas Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with pending home sales in November rising by 3.3%, significantly above the anticipated 0.9% [3] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 199,000, compared to the expected 218,000 [3] - The December FOMC meeting minutes indicated a hawkish tone, with most participants supporting potential rate cuts if inflation trends downward, while also acknowledging risks of rising inflation [3] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology growth, non-bank financials, and cyclical assets as the Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and surpass significant thresholds in 2026 [4] - Factors supporting this outlook include anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts, continued inflow of incremental capital, and policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4] - The focus is on sectors benefiting from AI and emerging market industrialization trends, as well as cyclical valuation opportunities under domestic demand expansion [4] Sector-Specific Insights - In the technology growth sector, there is potential in domestic internet, electronics, media, and computing, particularly with the ongoing chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases [5] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, with a focus on insurance and brokerage sectors [5] - Cyclical sectors are showing marginal improvements in valuation and are likely to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, including tourism, hospitality, and commodities [6]

行业目前仍处于深度调整期，龙头公司纷纷采取措施稳价格、稳渠道，有利于加速行业筑底出清。中短 期来看，2025Q4—2026Q1受2026年春节较晚，酒企报表端、渠道端继续出清等影响，预计2026Q2龙头 公司将在低基数下迎来触底回升。经过前期调整，目前白酒板块估值处于近10年来10%左右分位数水 平；龙头公司注重股东回报，加大分红，板块中长期投资价值逐步显现。建议关注贵州茅台、五粮液、 泸州老窖、山西汾酒、今世缘、古井贡酒等。 大众品方面，10月CPI同比转正，11月CPI食品项转正；社零受益国庆中秋双节影响，餐饮、文旅等服 务消费表现较为亮眼。乳制品、调味品、啤酒等传统板块龙头表现平稳，行业需求端虽有压力，但成本 端仍保持低位；零食、软饮料等新消费板块依然保持较快增速，景气持续。未来，随着扩内需政策的逐 步落地，若CPI延续10月、11月趋势逐步上行，物价走出通缩，传统消费龙头有望迎来触底回升。建议 关注海天味业、伊利股份、青岛啤酒、东鹏饮料、安琪酵母、妙可蓝多等。 （以上内容仅供参考，不作为投资决策依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。） 晨报讯（南京晨报/爱南京记者 许崇静）近期，中央经济工作会议明确将"坚持内 ...

报告导读： 2025 年中央经济工作会议成功举办，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需 是战略之举》，高层密集发声将消费提升至经济增长"持久动力"与"稳定锚"的核心高度。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 锚定战略基点，激活内需潜能——评2025年中央经济工作会议与《扩大内需是战略之举》； 报告日期：2025.12.17 报告作者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 邱苗（分析师），登记编号：S0880521050001 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京成功举行，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在 2026 年八项重点任务之首。 会议提到，坚持内 需主导，建设强大国内市场；深入实施提振消费专项行动，实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品供给；优化"两新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措 施，释放服务消费潜力。 12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。 文章指出，实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人 民日益增长的美好生活的需要；要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector in 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in this area [5][7]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as a key focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and increasing urban and rural incomes [5][6]. - The article in "Qiushi" magazine highlights that expanding domestic demand is essential for long-term economic health and meeting the needs of the population, with a focus on accelerating domestic demand, particularly consumption [6][7]. - The emphasis on consumption as a core growth driver reflects a strategic approach to leverage China's large market for sustainable growth, indicating continued policy support for consumption [7][8]. Summary by Sections - **Domestic Demand Strategy**: The report outlines that the strategy to expand domestic demand is crucial for maintaining long-term economic growth and addressing the needs of the population, with a focus on consumption as the main driver [6][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies three key areas for investment recovery in 2026: 1. **Services**: Highlighted as a priority area with strong policy support and high demand elasticity, particularly in elderly care, education, healthcare, and culture [8]. 2. **Mass Products**: Expected to see stable recovery due to bottom stabilization, structural optimization, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with strong demand for food and daily goods [8]. 3. **High-end Consumption**: Driven by real estate and capital market wealth effects, with structural opportunities in sectors like Chinese baijiu, duty-free, and high-end household appliances [9].