证 券 分 析 师 食品饮料 吕 昌 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 2025 年 08 月 24 日 板块受益市场轮动 基本面继续等待 验证 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250818-20250822 相关研究 《茅台业绩符合预期 优质食品公司价值显 现——食品饮料行业周报 20250811- 20250815》 2025/08/16 《优质食品公司价值逐步显现 白酒继续等 待——食品饮料行业周报 20250804- 20250808》 2025/08/09 《板块回调 优质公司投资价值逐步显现— —食品饮料行业周报 20250728- 20250801》 2025/08/02 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on traditional consumer head enterprises, indicating they have long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [3][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure due to slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios, with expectations of continued challenges in sales and financial statements this year [3][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with long-term competitiveness and improvement potential, particularly in the food and beverage sector [3][7]. - The report recommends key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, while also focusing on companies in the dairy and beer sectors like Yili Group and Beijing Yanjing Brewery [3][7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.48% increase last week, with liquor up by 0.93%, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.70% [6]. - The top gainers included Guifazhiyuan and Angel Yeast, while the biggest losers were Huangshanghuang and Yanjing Beer [6]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's bottle price is 1850 yuan, down 25 yuan week-on-week, while the box price is 1860 yuan, down 50 yuan [8]. - The report suggests a cautious approach, advising to wait for changes in the industry's fundamentals, particularly looking forward to the peak season in August and September [8]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report is optimistic about the dairy sector due to declining costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending companies like Yili and New Dairy [9]. - It notes that snacks, beverages, and low-alcohol products have structural growth opportunities, highlighting companies such as Uni-President China and Wei Long [9]. 4. Key Company Updates - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 388 billion yuan for Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 48.45%, down 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Wei Long's H1 2025 revenue reached 3.483 billion yuan, up 18.52%, with a net profit of 733 million yuan, also up 18% [9]. - Shuanghui Development's H1 2025 revenue was 28.514 billion yuan, a 2.97% increase, with a net profit of 2.323 billion yuan, up 1.17% [10][17].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquor industry is actively promoting technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance quality, reduce costs, and improve efficiency in response to changing consumer demands and increasing market competition [1][2]. Market Overview - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a rapid transformation, with changes in consumption patterns, structures, and philosophies. Major liquor companies are focusing on digitalization to improve production efficiency and product quality while reducing operational costs [2][4]. - According to the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, by the end of 2024, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages in China will remain below 50 million kiloliters, with baijiu and beer dominating the market, accounting for approximately 93% of total consumption [4]. Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry, as the absolute leader in the Chinese liquor market, has seen a slowdown in growth after rapid expansion. In 2024, the production of baijiu from large-scale enterprises is expected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is projected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a growth of 5.3% [5]. - The market is increasingly concentrated among leading brands, with top companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye capturing a significant share of industry profits. In 2024, 20 A-share baijiu companies are expected to generate total revenue of 442.2 billion yuan and net profits of 166.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - Changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger consumers, are driving the industry towards lower-alcohol products and international market expansion [6]. Beer Industry - The beer industry in China is experiencing a "volume decline and price increase" trend, with 2024 beer production expected to be 35.213 million kiloliters, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year. However, revenue and profits are on the rise, with sales revenue increasing from 147.45 billion yuan in 2018 to 186.3 billion yuan in 2023 [9][10]. - Major players like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery are leveraging brand strength and market share to maintain their leading positions. The industry is also seeing a shift towards high-end products and digital transformation [10][13]. - Craft beer and non-alcoholic beer are emerging as rapidly growing segments, with craft beer consumption expected to reach 230,000 kiloliters by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17% [10]. Digital and Intelligent Transformation - The liquor industry is embracing digital and intelligent technologies as core drivers of transformation. Companies are implementing automation, big data analytics, and blockchain technology to enhance production efficiency and consumer trust [15][21]. - Kweichow Moutai is leading in digital transformation with initiatives like the "i Moutai" platform, which integrates various operational aspects and utilizes blockchain for product traceability [17][18]. - Wuliangye is investing in multiple projects to enhance its digital capabilities, including smart warehousing and supply chain management [19][20]. - China Resources Beer is integrating IoT and data-driven approaches to automate production processes and enhance operational efficiency [21][22]. - Tsingtao Brewery is advancing its digital strategy across its entire business chain, focusing on data collection, product development, and smart logistics [26][27]. Notable Projects - The Luzhou Laojiao Intelligent Packaging Center, recognized as the first "lighthouse factory" in the baijiu industry, showcases advanced automation and digital integration in its operations [29][31]. - China Resources Snow Beer has launched a JIT intelligent corridor project to enhance supply chain efficiency, marking a significant step towards digital transformation in the beverage supply chain [33].

Investment Rating - The investment analysis opinion indicates a positive outlook for traditional consumer leading companies, suggesting they have long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the head companies in traditional consumption have undergone adjustments and are now positioned for long-term investment value. It highlights the potential for performance differentiation among food stocks characterized by new consumption trends, with a focus on companies that possess long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [5]. - In the liquor sector, the report notes that due to slow macro demand recovery and further restrictions on consumption scenarios, sales pressure is expected to remain significant this year, with financial statements also under pressure. Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while also paying attention to Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjiagongjiu [5][6]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and the emergence of new products and channels will foster growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats driven by consumer trends towards self-indulgence, health, and convenience [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.63% increase last week, with liquor rising by 0.38%. However, it underperformed the broader market, lagging by 1.48 percentage points [4]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 26th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [4]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1875 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the box price remains stable at 1910 RMB. Wuliangye's price is approximately 870 RMB, also stable [6][19]. - The report suggests that high-end liquor prices have stabilized since July, but future trends remain uncertain, advising patience for fundamental changes in the industry [6]. 3. Mass Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report increases its recommendation for Uni-President China, noting that the company's mid-year performance exceeded expectations. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.315 billion, 2.579 billion, and 2.843 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 11%, and 10% [7][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in profitability driven by structural upgrades in food and beverage businesses, alongside a focus on expanding into dining, gift boxes, and family consumption scenarios [7]. 4. Market Performance of Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.29 percentage points during the period from August 4 to August 8, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [35]. - The report indicates that the liquor sector has consistently lagged behind the market, with a notable decline in excess returns compared to the Shenwan A index [36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "turnaround" in investment, using the historical example of American Express and comparing it to current situations faced by companies like Tencent and Moutai, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive moat despite market fears [4][8]. Group 1: American Express Case Study - In 1964, Warren Buffett invested approximately $13 million to acquire 5% of American Express shares at an average price of $71 per share, which later rose to $180 per share, showcasing a significant turnaround [4]. - The "Salad Oil Scandal" in 1963 led to a crisis for American Express, causing its stock price to plummet due to fears of insolvency after banks sought compensation for losses exceeding $150 million [6]. - Buffett's unique insight allowed him to recognize that American Express's core business remained strong, as customers continued to use its services despite the scandal, leading him to invest heavily in the company [7]. Group 2: Comparison with Tencent - The article draws parallels between American Express's situation and Tencent's challenges from 2021 to 2022, where negative market sentiment led to a significant drop in its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 9 times, with the stock price falling to levels not seen in five years [8]. - Despite the adverse conditions, Tencent's core applications, such as WeChat and gaming, continued to thrive, indicating that the company's competitive advantages remained intact [8]. - The recovery of Tencent's stock price in subsequent years illustrates the potential for turnaround when a company's fundamental strengths are not eroded [8]. Group 3: Current Market Observations - Companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted as having similar characteristics to American Express and Tencent, where despite concerns over oversupply and inventory issues, they remain preferred choices for high-end dining and gifting [9]. - The enduring demand for premium liquor in social settings reinforces the idea that these companies possess a strong competitive moat, similar to the historical examples discussed [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on leading traditional consumer companies that have adjusted and now possess long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the head companies in traditional consumption have adjusted and now show long-term investment value. The food stocks with new consumption characteristics are expected to differentiate based on performance in the future. The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [3][7]. - In the liquor sector, slow macro demand recovery and limited consumption scenarios are expected to exert pressure on sales and financial statements this year. Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on Wuliangye, Jiansi Yuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu [3][7]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, cost advantages are expected to support profitability, with new products and channels driving growth. The report recommends head companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, while also highlighting growth opportunities in new retail formats and categories driven by consumer trends [3][7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.17% last week, with liquor down 2.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.24 percentage points [6][42]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's heavy stock holdings have decreased, with the white liquor sector's heavy stock holdings accounting for 6.79% of fund equity investments, down 1.71 percentage points from the previous quarter [8][9]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The food processing sector outperformed the benchmark by 0.36 percentage points, while other sectors like beverage dairy and liquor underperformed by 0.54 and 1.32 percentage points, respectively [42][43]. 3. Key Company Updates - Companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential, with Yili expected to improve its financials due to inventory reduction and brand clearing strategies [9][12]. - New product launches from companies like Jinzai Foods and Youyou Foods are noted, with a focus on innovative products and channel growth driving future performance [12][13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of the liquor industry through the rise of e-commerce and instant retail, highlighting the shift from traditional sales methods to digital platforms and consumer-driven demand [2][6][10] Industry Trends - Instant retail in the liquor sector is experiencing explosive growth, with the market size expected to reach approximately 1 trillion yuan by 2027, up from around 200 billion yuan in 2023 [8][10] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the liquor market is projected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 6% by 2027, indicating a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring instant retail for its convenience, particularly for low-cost, high-frequency products like beer, which constitutes a significant portion of sales in this segment [12][13] - The demand for customized and scenario-based purchasing experiences is rising, as consumers seek quality assurance from official channels [8][10] Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are rapidly adapting to the instant retail model, with brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao launching initiatives to integrate with platforms like Meituan and Douyin [4][9] - Companies are encouraged to refine their supply chain and product offerings to meet the demands of both online and offline channels, ensuring a balanced pricing strategy [21][22] Market Dynamics - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with concerns about profitability due to price wars and the influx of low-cost products [16][18] - Traditional liquor retailers are facing pressure to transition from wholesale to service-oriented retail models, as consumer preferences shift towards online purchasing [10][11] Operational Challenges - The need for diverse product offerings and effective operational strategies is critical for success in the instant retail space, as companies must avoid price wars and focus on sustainable profit models [17][22] - The integration of high-margin products alongside popular low-cost items is essential for maintaining profitability in the instant retail environment [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent plan by Moutai to establish joint venture companies in various provinces has been put on hold due to internal disputes regarding the model, despite the initial aim to stabilize market prices and develop customized cultural products [1][7]. Group 1: Joint Venture Company Plans - Moutai intended to form joint venture companies led by provincial distributors' associations, with registered capital ranging from 50 million to 100 million yuan, to enhance operational efficiency and resource integration [2][3]. - The joint ventures were expected to focus on developing culturally themed products with an expected ex-factory price above 2000 yuan, targeting regional collectible consumption [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - The alcohol industry is facing significant challenges, including declining consumer power, high channel inventory, and widespread price inversion, with nearly 60% of companies reporting reduced profit margins [3][5]. - Experts suggest that the restructuring of traditional manufacturer-distributor relationships is necessary, as distributors are no longer just passive entities but are now expected to share risks and responsibilities [3][5]. Group 3: Price Stabilization Efforts - The joint venture model aims to stabilize the price of Moutai by controlling supply and avoiding price wars, especially in light of the downward pressure on prices since last year [6][5]. - The success of the joint venture in maintaining price stability will depend on its ability to manage supply and demand effectively, which poses significant operational challenges [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative sales model of a small noodle shop in Shanghai, which combines low-cost noodles with high-end liquor sold by the cup, highlights a potential growth opportunity in the struggling liquor market, particularly for premium brands like Moutai [2][10]. Group 1: Innovative Consumption Model - The noodle shop sells a bowl of noodles for 3 yuan and offers premium liquors like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Jian Nan Chun by the cup, creating a unique consumption experience [3][5]. - The pricing for the liquors is set at 48 yuan for Moutai, 24 yuan for Wuliangye, and 12 yuan for Jian Nan Chun, with each cup containing 10 milliliters [7]. - This model allows consumers who cannot afford a full bottle to experience high-end liquor, thus breaking the traditional consumption barriers associated with premium brands [5][9]. Group 2: Market Context and Challenges - The liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges, including a downturn in consumption and strict regulations, which have led to a decline in sales [10][12]. - The implementation of stringent alcohol bans since May has severely impacted traditional consumption venues, leading to a drop in market activity [10][12]. - Despite the current difficulties, there are signs of potential recovery, with large-scale investment projects and urban renewal initiatives expected to stimulate demand in the liquor market [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Outperform the Market" [5][6][78]. Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in the allocation ratio for the liquor sector, reflecting weak fundamental expectations. The second quarter performance is expected to show demand pressure, with companies focusing on market health and inventory reduction [2][12][14]. - The beer and beverage sectors are entering a peak season, with stable performance from leading companies in basic condiments. The report recommends companies that are accelerating nationalization and platformization, such as Dongpeng Beverage [3][15][20]. - The report highlights three investment lines in the liquor sector: leading companies with strong risk resistance, companies showing digital transformation feedback, and those with market share growth potential [2][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's allocation ratio has decreased, with the white liquor index rising by 1.0%. The allocation ratio for actively managed equity funds fell by 2.07 percentage points to 4.50% [2][14]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have shown strong dividend yields and growth potential [2][14]. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is experiencing a slight decrease in fund allocation, with Yanjing Beer seeing an increase in its fund holding ratio. The report recommends Yanjing Beer due to its ongoing internal reforms [3][15]. - The snack sector has seen a significant increase in fund allocation, particularly for Salted Fish and Wancheng Group. The report recommends products with high growth potential, such as those from Weilong and Salted Fish [3][16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies like Haitian Flavoring are expected to perform steadily, with a focus on mid-year performance [3][17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products to adapt to market demands. Recommendations include Anjui Foods and Qianwei Central Kitchen [3][18]. - The dairy sector is expected to recover gradually, with policies stimulating demand. The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies with a safety margin in valuations [3][19]. Beverage Sector - The beverage sector is entering a peak season, with significant growth in no-sugar tea and energy drinks. Dongpeng Beverage is highlighted for its strong performance, with a reported revenue increase of 36% year-on-year [3][20].