当千年酒香遇上"国宝"熊猫，将碰撞出怎样的火花？在11月22日举行的2025全球熊猫伙伴大会平行会议中外文旅交流互鉴大会现场，五粮液作为大会官 方战略合作伙伴与官方指定用酒，在"安逸四川"推介环节惊艳亮相，展现了作为川酒龙头的历史渊源、人文底蕴与多彩魅力，成为文旅融合、中外互鉴的生 动注脚。 一场沉浸式情景剧《安乐泉颂》拉开序幕，将宋代文豪黄庭坚与五粮液前身"姚子雪曲"的佳话娓娓道来。"清而不薄，厚而不浊。甘而不哕，辛而不 螫。"——近千年前的品酒诗在古琴悠扬与竹板轻响中"复活"，演员的深情演绎，瞬间把观众带入安乐泉畔的风雅现场。黄庭坚尝酒赋诗、赐名"姚子雪 曲"的经典桥段，不仅展现了中国白酒的品鉴美学，更让五粮液"五种粮食、一方好水、千年匠艺"的酿造智慧跃然眼前。 随着情景剧谢幕，推荐官化身"时空向导"，带领嘉宾穿越古今，开启一场五粮液4A级景区的"云游"之旅：从象征"五粮汇聚、蒸蒸日上"的东大门，到珍 藏唐代酒具、清代"陈氏秘方"的酒文化博览馆；从"热门打卡点"鹏程广场，到栖息着1600种微生物的"酒圣山"……五粮液以"活态传承"的方式，向世界展示 了一个兼具人文温度与科技魅力的中国工业文旅样本。 五粮液 ...

Core Insights - The event highlighted the collaboration between Wuliangye and the 2025 Global Panda Partners Conference, showcasing the cultural significance of both the liquor and the giant panda as symbols of friendship and heritage [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Global Panda Partners Conference included a parallel meeting focused on cultural and tourism exchanges, emphasizing the theme of "deepening cultural tourism integration" [8]. - Wuliangye served as the official strategic partner and designated liquor for the event, featuring a performance that connected historical figures with the brand's heritage [1][3]. Group 2: Cultural Significance - Wuliangye is positioned as a cultural ambassador, representing the rich heritage of Sichuan and its connection to the giant panda, both of which are seen as cultural icons of China [4][6]. - The event included a "cloud tour" of Wuliangye's 4A scenic area, showcasing the brand's historical and cultural assets [3]. Group 3: Environmental Commitment - Wuliangye's participation in the conference was framed as a commitment to biodiversity protection, aligning with the conference's goals of ecological preservation [6]. - The event emphasized the importance of collaboration among various sectors to protect biodiversity, with Wuliangye being highlighted as a responsible corporate entity [6].

2025年，徐州市场监管部门以"服务民生、护航消费"为宗旨，聚焦消费领域人民群众反映强烈、社会危 害性突出的问题，坚持以"打假、处劣、治虚、惩偷"为重点，严厉打击掺杂掺假、以假充真、以次充 好、以不合格冒充合格产品、偷工减料、缺斤短两、非法改装、商标侵权、虚假广告、"霸王条款""幽 灵外卖"等违法行为。现公布2025年第六批铁拳行动典型案例。 案例一 徐州市市场监管局查处徐州某口腔医院有限公司虚假宣传案 2025年5月22日，徐州市市场监管局根据市卫健委移交线索，对徐州某口腔医院有限公司开展执法检 查。经查，当事人在经营场所内悬挂含医生姓名、学历等资历内容的宣传图片，其中3名医生并非该医 院坐诊医生，5名医生学历文凭与实际情况不符。 当事人将未在其医院坐诊的医生资历信息图片，及含有不实学历的医生资历信息图片悬挂在其诊疗场所 内进行宣传的行为，违反了《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第八条第一款的规定。徐州市市场监管 局依据《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第二十条的规定，责令当事人停止违法行为，作出罚款 30000元的行政处罚。案后，经执法人员现场复查，当事人已改正违法行为。 案例二 睢宁县市场监管局查处陈某销售 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with October CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [4][5]. - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.82% compared to a decrease of 0.18% for the index [5][6]. - The industry is characterized by a significant decline in overall performance for the liquor sector, but there are signs of demand recovery as policy pressures ease and consumption policies are implemented [4][5]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor companies reported a significant decline in third-quarter performance, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery due to easing policy pressures [4]. - The top liquor companies are increasing dividend payouts, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4]. - The e-commerce channel for liquor sales has shown strong growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with notable increases in sales for major brands [5]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment is focusing on high-growth areas, with some categories still benefiting from new products and channels, leading to potential valuation premiums for scarce growth targets [4]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong growth trends [4]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's sub-segments have shown varied performance, with pre-processed foods leading gains at +6.93%, while soft drinks lagged at -0.23% [5][10]. - The top-performing stocks in the food and beverage sector include Huanlejia (+43.19%) and Sanyuan Shares (+31.79%) [5][12]. Economic Indicators - October's macroeconomic data supports a trend of marginal improvement in consumer spending, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year and dining revenue increasing by 3.8% [5]. - The overall consumer goods market is showing positive signs, supported by a stable service sector PMI [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strategic configuration period for quality companies [3][7]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth of 2.9% year-on-year in October and a 3.8% increase in restaurant revenue, indicating a rebound from previous declines [3][7]. - Major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines, but the market is actively seeking a balance between volume and price, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience regarding fundamental performance and notes that individual stock performance will vary during this adjustment phase [3][7]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 2.82% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [6]. - Key stocks such as Huanyujia and Sanyuan have shown significant gains, while Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Yangchun faced declines [6]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering a strategic configuration phase, with expectations of a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026 [8]. - The average price for Moutai is reported at 1655 RMB for loose bottles, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 830 RMB [8][26]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales volume in early 2026, but a stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [8]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The performance of consumer goods companies has been mixed, with leading firms like Yili and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable operations, while some companies in the snack and beverage sectors have seen a slowdown in revenue growth [9]. - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend yielding companies and those with sustainable growth potential, particularly in the snack and beverage segments [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.85x, with a premium rate of 27%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.51x, with a premium rate of 18% [27].

Core Insights - The price of Moutai has dropped below the official suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, with some platforms offering it as low as 1299 yuan, indicating a significant shift in consumer perception and market dynamics [1][3][6] Group 1: Moutai's Brand and Market Dynamics - Moutai's brand value has been built on a triad of price, social status, and financial attributes, creating a "buy and earn" mentality among consumers [3][6] - The recent decline in demand and consumption patterns, particularly in banquet and gifting scenarios, has led to a slowdown in sales and a drop in revenue and profit growth to single digits, as reported in the Q3 financial results [3][6] - The aggressive pricing strategies from e-commerce platforms have disrupted traditional distribution channels, leading to a loss of trust among distributors and a surge in inventory liquidation [3][6][11] Group 2: Industry Implications - Moutai's price adjustments are affecting the entire high-end liquor market, challenging the premium pricing structure that has supported other brands [11][12] - As Moutai's price falls below 1700 yuan, consumers are reconsidering their purchasing decisions, which has led to a crisis of confidence in the high-end market, impacting brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [11][12] - The industry may experience a structural rebalancing, with high-end prices returning to rational levels and a more competitive landscape emerging in the mid-range and sub-premium segments [11][12] Group 3: Future Strategies for Moutai - Moutai is responding to price pressures by limiting supply, optimizing channel management, and expanding its product line to appeal to younger consumers [12][13] - The company aims to redefine its growth strategy from scarcity and premium pricing to enhancing consumer experience and brand recognition [12][13] - The shift in Moutai's positioning from a speculative investment to a consumable product is seen as a necessary adjustment for the brand's long-term health [12][13]

Group 1 - The 2025 Fortune China 500 Summit was held in Shanghai, where Wuliangye ranked 146th, leading the liquor industry [1] - The summit's theme was "Navigating Trends: The Next 25 Years of the 21st Century," featuring discussions on macroeconomics, global industrial layout, green transformation, and changing consumer trends [1] - Wuliangye showcased its brand culture through a specially designed exhibition and tasting events, highlighting the deep cultural heritage and exceptional quality of Chinese liquor [1] Group 2 - The Wuliangye brand culture exhibition focused on "Harmony and Beauty," blending traditional heritage with contemporary aesthetics [2] - The exhibition displayed various representative products, including the classic Wuliangye series and the 29° Wuliangye "First Encounter," which received positive feedback for its unique flavor profile [2] - Guests experienced a unique tasting method during the themed dinner, enhancing their understanding of the charm of Chinese liquor and fostering international business cooperation [2] Group 3 - As a representative of Chinese liquor, Wuliangye is committed to high-quality development, enhancing brand influence and value [3] - The company actively participates in international high-end platforms to share the cultural stories and quality of Chinese liquor, promoting sustainable high-quality development [3] - Wuliangye aims to deepen brand construction and promote the international dissemination of Chinese liquor culture, contributing to global cultural exchange [3]

Core Insights - The leading companies in the mass-market segment are stabilizing, while the liquor industry is experiencing accelerated pressure release, reinforcing market share logic [4][19][39] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall growth with structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [4][12] - The liquor sector is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on deceleration in 2024, as many companies are adjusting their strategies amid increasing channel pressures [4][19][39] Liquor Sector - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's revenue and net profit declines have widened, with total revenue of 3,202 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,126 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year [19][35] - Major liquor companies are experiencing significant revenue drops, with only a few, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, showing positive growth [20][21] - The sector is facing increased competition, leading companies to prioritize market share over profitability, resulting in a decrease in gross profit margins [33][39] Mass-Market Segment - The mass-market segment is benefiting from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in 2025 [4][12] - Specific categories such as sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks are showing high growth rates, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng leading the charge [4][12] - The snack segment reported a revenue increase of 22.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite rising costs in certain product categories [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor and restaurant supply chains, particularly companies like Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from policy sensitivity [4][12] - Stronger companies in the mass-market segment, such as Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment due to their robust performance [4][12] Financial Performance - The liquor sector's cash flow is under pressure, with many companies reporting negative operating cash flows, indicating a slowdown in business activity [40] - The overall net profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with only Moutai showing an improvement in gross profit margin due to better product mix [39][40]

Core Insights - The leading companies in the mass-market segment are stabilizing, while the liquor industry is experiencing accelerated pressure release, reinforcing market share logic [4][10][19] - The food and beverage industry is expected to show stable overall volume with structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [4][12] - The liquor sector is entering an adjustment phase, with a consensus on deceleration in 2024, as most companies face declining performance in Q3 [4][19][39] Liquor Sector - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's revenue and net profit declines are widening, with total revenue of 3,202 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,126 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year [19][35] - The Q3 revenue for the liquor sector dropped to 787.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, with net profit at 280.1 billion yuan, down 22.2% [19][39] - Major liquor companies are experiencing cash flow pressures, with a significant drop in sales receipts, indicating a slowdown in operational pace [40] Mass-Market Segment - The mass-market segment is benefiting from proactive inventory reduction and macro policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in 2025 [4][12] - Specific high-demand categories such as sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and bulk snacks are showing strong growth, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage achieving significant revenue increases [4][12] - The snack sector reported a Q3 revenue growth of 22.4% year-on-year, despite rising costs from raw materials [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor and restaurant supply chains, particularly companies like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from policy sensitivity [4][12] - Stronger companies in the mass-market segment, such as Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer, are also recommended for investment due to their robust performance [4][12] Financial Performance - The Q3 2025 financial performance of major liquor companies shows a significant decline in net profit margins, with only Kweichow Moutai recording a slight improvement in net profit margin due to better gross margin management [35][39] - The overall gross margin for the liquor sector has decreased, reflecting intensified competition and a shift in product mix towards lower-priced offerings [31][33]

Summary of the Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry is expected to reach a turning point around the second quarter of 2026, with stock prices typically responding ahead of fundamentals, indicating a current bottoming expectation for the sector, which presents good absolute return potential [1][4] - The industry has undergone six quarters of adjustment, likely to bottom out by the second quarter of 2026, with a subsequent recovery in income and stock prices anticipated [1][13][16] Key Insights and Arguments - The current market structure for Baijiu has significantly changed compared to the 2013-2016 cycle, with increased industry concentration and improved market management capabilities among leading companies [1][3][14] - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped to 1,650 RMB, which is equivalent to 34 bottles purchasable with the annual income of urban residents, indicating sufficient economic capacity for high-end Baijiu consumption [1][11] - The Baijiu sector is currently under pressure but is expected to enter a phase of recovery as new products and channels contribute to growth, creating a resonance effect between alpha and beta returns [1][5] Future Trends - The Baijiu industry is projected to see a recovery in revenue growth by the second quarter of 2026, with a potential for excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index [13][16] - The rise of sauce-flavored Baijiu and its increasing penetration rate are noted as significant trends, despite recent adjustments in this segment [14][15] Investment Recommendations - Companies are categorized into three main development lines: 1. Those that meet family demand and have competitive advantages in regional markets, such as Jinwei and Gujing [17] 2. Large enterprises with strong brand positions and operational capabilities, like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai [17] 3. Companies that innovate in products and channels, such as Shede and Li Du, which are exploring new growth points [17] Challenges and Opportunities - Current challenges include inventory buildup and downward pricing pressures across the industry, but a recovery in demand and normalization of inventory levels are expected to lead to a turning point in revenue stabilization [20] - The valuation of Baijiu companies is at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential once the market recovers, particularly for high-end products that remain in demand [19][21] Conclusion - The Baijiu industry is in a transitional phase, with expectations of recovery and growth in the coming years. The current low valuations present a favorable long-term investment opportunity as the market stabilizes and consumer demand rebounds [19][20]