Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the joint venture company, Fujian Zhong-A Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., marks a significant investment in the refining and chemical sector, with a total investment of 711 billion RMB, focusing on the integrated refining and chemical project in Fujian [3][4]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The joint venture was officially registered on September 4, with a registered capital of 28.8 billion RMB, where Fujian Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. holds 50%, Sinopec holds 25%, and Saudi Aramco's subsidiary holds 25% [3]. - This project is the largest single investment in refining by Sinopec and the largest industrial project in Fujian province to date, representing a new model of energy cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia [3]. Group 2: Project Investment and Construction - The total investment for the project is 711 billion RMB, with plans for full production by 2030, including the construction of over 30 refining and chemical units [4]. - Key refining capacities include: 16 million tons/year of atmospheric distillation, 3.8 million tons/year of light hydrocarbon recovery, and various hydrogenation and cracking units [4]. - Chemical production will include: 1.5 million tons/year of steam cracking, 600,000 tons/year of hydrogenation of cracked gasoline, and multiple other chemical units [4]. Group 3: Saudi Aramco's Strategic Moves - Saudi Aramco's downstream president stated that this project signifies a new step in their investment in China, with plans to supply over 1 million barrels of crude oil daily to China, enhancing the "oil-to-chemicals" transition [5]. - Saudi Aramco has been actively increasing its market presence in China, with significant investments and partnerships, including a recent agreement with Rongsheng Petrochemical [5]. - The company aims to participate in various large-scale refining and chemical projects in China, indicating a strategic focus on the Chinese market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The European chemical industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with no short-term recovery in sight due to persistent supply overcapacity and structural challenges in the ethylene market [2][4]. Industry Overview - Over the past 18 months, the European chemical sector has experienced a wave of steam cracker shutdowns and downstream capacity consolidation, reflecting the ongoing weakness in the ethylene market [2]. - High raw material costs, low profit margins from naphtha cracking, and competition from low-priced imports have pressured the industry, leading to the closure or planned shutdown of six steam cracker facilities in Europe [2][3]. Company Actions - Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) announced the closure of its ethane cracker in Wilton, UK, on June 25, 2023, indicating a potential exit from the European market [2]. - Dow Chemical also announced plans to close its steam cracker in Germany by Q4 2027 due to structural challenges [2]. Market Dynamics - The demand for steam cracker capacity is expected to rise globally, with raw material demand projected to increase from 432 million tons in 2024 to 610 million tons by 2034 [3]. - Ethylene production from ethane and naphtha routes is expected to be approximately 74 million tons each in 2024, with ethane production projected to reach 101 million tons by 2034 [3]. Regional Competitiveness - European steam crackers lack competitiveness compared to lower-cost regions due to high energy and raw material costs and a bleak demand outlook [3][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the operating rate of European steam crackers is expected to be around 75%, necessitating a reduction of approximately 2 million tons per year of ethylene capacity to achieve a 90% operating rate [4]. Price Trends - The production profit and price of ethylene in Europe are expected to remain under pressure for the remainder of the year, with spot prices fluctuating around €790 per ton since the end of 2022 [4]. - In July 2023, ethylene prices fell to €563 per ton, marking a ten-year low outside of the COVID-19 pandemic period [4]. Market Sentiment - European ethylene producers are gradually losing their global competitive edge due to structural changes in demand, leading to reduced operating rates to avoid exacerbating supply overcapacity [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has further dampened the confidence of European ethylene companies, causing many market participants to delay significant actions [5].