2025年7月以来"反内卷"力度持续加大，新能源行业是政策关注的重点领域。6月29日，人民日报发布评 论文章，点名光伏、储能、新能源车行业，提议通过深化要素市场化改革来破除这些行业的内卷式竞 争；9月9日，工信部在国新办新闻发布会上表示，已会同相关部门依法依规治理新能源汽车、光伏等重 点行业的非理性竞争且取得初步成效，还强调绝不容忍非理性竞争毁掉相关企业与行业，后续也会标本 兼治推进行业治理现代化以优化产业生态。 2025年11月21日，A股三大指数低开低走，光伏ETF华夏（515370）回调4.48%。 估值方面，中证光伏产业指数最新PB为2.55倍，处在历史49%分位。处在历史中枢附近，位置不高。交 易拥挤度方面，截至2025年三季度末，主动权益基金在电力设备行业的重仓持股比例为12.3%，环比有 所提升，但相比此前最高21%，仍然属于偏低位置。 每日经济新闻 中信建投认为，当前光伏、锂电都处于盈利底部，光伏亏损尤为突出。对于光伏行业，预计后续"反内 卷"政策会聚焦整治低于成本价的恶性竞争、推动产能整合与落后产能退出等，虽近期价格在政策驱动 下上涨，但基本面仍弱，后续需关注产能整合等对供给端的影响力度；锂 ...

近期，由于下游的电池环节收紧需求并进行限价采购，致使硅片采购订单骤减。部分现金流紧张的二三 线硅片企业出现恐慌性抛售，使硅片价格出现下跌。针对价格波动，国内硅片行业出现联合挺价行动。 11月13日，SMM（上海有色网）发布的数据显示，数家硅片企业当天联合挺价。其中，183N硅片上调 至1.3元/片；210R硅片上调至1.3元/片；210N硅片维持1.6元/片至1.65元/片区间。此前执行的低价订单暂 停发货，并重新议价成交。 "光伏行业的其他环节可仿效硅料环节进行产能整合，产能整合的目的是让企业有序退出，避免产生'劣 币驱逐良币'的现象，进而削弱我国光伏产业的领先地位。"此外陈家辉建议，拓展贸易商和企业的新合 作模式，利用先进的金融工具为企业提供服务，大幅减少流通环节中企业面临的库存压力。 "长期的供需错配不利于行业的健康发展。但由于光伏行业自身的特殊性，'反内卷'的具体举措需要行 业内部达成高度一致。"万联证券投资顾问屈放在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，未来不仅需要推 进"反内卷"，更要杜绝行业走出低谷后再重蹈盲目扩产的覆辙。 "未来的光伏行业需要将技术革新、产权保护、企业盈利等作为发展的重要标准。"屈放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic equipment sector has seen significant gains in late October, with a 4.5% increase from October 29 to October 31, followed by a 2.3% rise on November 3, despite overall market challenges [1] Summary by Category Market Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector achieved nearly a 3% increase in October, contrasting with the overall market downturn, particularly the Shenzhen Composite Index [1] - Leading companies such as Longi Green Energy, Canadian Solar, and JA Solar have experienced consecutive trading halts due to rising stock prices [1] Price Trends - In Q3, the prices of key photovoltaic materials (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules) saw their largest increase in nearly three years, with silicon materials and wafers rising over 40% [1] - However, in October, prices for silicon wafers and battery cells declined, while silicon materials saw only a slight increase amid low transaction volumes [1] Silicon Material Insights - As of the end of October, the average trading price for dense silicon was 52 CNY/kg, up 1.96% month-on-month and 33.33% year-to-date, but down 20% compared to early 2024 [2] - Granular silicon's average trading price was 50 CNY/kg, with a monthly increase of 2.04% and a year-to-date increase of 38.89% [2] Silicon Wafer Insights - The average trading price for N-type 182-183.75mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.35 CNY/piece, with a year-to-date increase of 28.57% [5] - The 182*210mm N-type silicon wafers saw a price drop of 3.57% in October, with a year-to-date increase of only 20.54% [5] Battery Cell Insights - The average trading price for N-type 182-183.75mm TOPCon battery cells fell by 3.13% in October to 0.31 CNY/W, although it remains 10.71% higher than at the beginning of the year [10] - The N-type 182*210mm TOPCon battery cells also experienced a price drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.72% [8] Module Insights - TOPCon module prices remained stagnant at 0.693 CNY/W, while HJT modules were priced at 0.83 CNY/W, indicating no change in October [12] - The current price of TOPCon modules is only slightly above the historical low of 0.68 CNY/W, reflecting ongoing struggles in the module segment [12] Financial Performance - The photovoltaic sector reported a net profit of 758 million CNY in Q3, a significant recovery from previous losses, although many companies still face challenges in their component businesses [14] - Despite some companies expecting to turn profits in Q4 or next year, uncertainties remain regarding price trends and overall performance [14]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in polysilicon futures, which have experienced a price increase of 2.20% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon futures opened at 52,510.0 yuan/ton and reached a high of 53,795.0 yuan, with a low of 52,425.0 yuan during the trading session [1] - The current market trend for polysilicon is characterized by a strong upward movement, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - New Lake Futures highlights that the market is currently focused on fundamental factors, with a loose industry environment. Supply-side reductions are insufficient, while demand is decreasing, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation of silicon materials [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes a contrast between strong expectations and weak realities, with no further market news on capacity integration affecting market sentiment. However, effective cost support and strong spot prices suggest that buying on dips may offer better value [1] - Nanhua Futures points out that the volatility of polysilicon futures is significantly higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, indicating a higher overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and manage their positions and risk hedging effectively [1]

Group 1 - The European chemical industry is currently facing significant challenges, with a pessimistic outlook expressed during the 59th European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) annual meeting held in Berlin from September 22 to 25 [1] - The CEO of the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) emphasized the need for capacity consolidation and the rapid implementation of the Chemical Action Plan to rescue the industry [1][2] - The recovery of the European chemical sector is expected to be slow, with potential improvements not anticipated until 2028, as the industry is currently at the bottom of a prolonged downturn [2] Group 2 - The European chemical industry has seen widespread capacity shutdowns, with new projects like INEOS's "Project One" in Antwerp expected to impact existing capacities [2] - The urgency of executing the EU's Chemical Action Plan is highlighted, as the current policy framework must be implemented quickly to address ongoing capacity closures [2] - Despite new legislative initiatives, there remains a sense of pessimism regarding the future of the European chemical industry, with workers facing job losses and factory closures [2] Group 3 - The downstream market, comprising 515 million consumers in Europe, presents a potential opportunity for recovery in the chemical sector [3] - The chemical industry is closely linked to the automotive sector, and its growth is contingent on the recovery of related industries such as construction [3] - The industry must not become complacent despite its innovative capabilities, as structural "rigid demand" still exists, and discussions at the EPCA focused on which regions can meet these demands [3]

Core Insights - The European polypropylene (PP) market is facing significant challenges due to weak demand and increased competition from low-priced imports, leading to a downward trend in prices and market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand - The demand for PP is declining, primarily due to low capacity utilization in key consumer sectors such as automotive and construction [3]. - The automotive industry, a major consumer of PP, is experiencing a downturn, with EU car production expected to decrease by 6.2% in 2024, and major manufacturers reporting sales declines [3]. - Despite potential government initiatives like the €500 billion infrastructure funding in Germany, short-term expectations for demand recovery remain bleak [3]. Group 2: Import Competition - The influx of low-priced imports from the Middle East and Asia is exacerbating the oversupply situation in the European PP market [4]. - From June 2024 to June 2025, the EU is projected to import 1.616 million tons of PP, with Saudi Arabia being the largest supplier, accounting for 39% of imports [4]. - Middle Eastern producers are expanding their polyethylene production facilities and leveraging low raw material costs to offer competitive pricing in Europe [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Market participants are generally pessimistic about the recovery of the PP market in Q4 2025 and 2026, citing international uncertainties and economic weakness as major hindrances [5]. - Despite the ongoing industry consolidation, some companies are still investing in the European PP market, such as Borealis Group's €100 million investment in Austria [5]. - The trend of market consolidation may lead to some companies evaluating exit strategies while others seek to strengthen their market positions through investment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Western Cement (02233) has shown significant growth in its mid-year performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong operational momentum and strategic expansion in overseas markets [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5.4 billion HKD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% [1] - Net profit reached 750 million HKD, marking a 93% year-on-year growth [1] - Sales volume for the period was 10.82 million tons, up 23.6% compared to the previous year [1] Market Expansion - The overseas market has been identified as a core growth driver, with sales in international markets increasing by 178% to 4.17 million tons [1] - The company has announced the acquisition of 1.2 million tons of cement capacity in the Congo and the sale of its entire business in Xinjiang to Conch Cement, totaling 3.5 million tons of cement capacity [1] Industry Outlook - The African cement market is highlighted as a significant opportunity, characterized by high growth potential and profitability compared to domestic markets [1] - The company has multiple ongoing and planned projects in Africa, which are expected to contribute to further performance growth as they come online [1]

Group 1 - The petrochemical market, particularly for PET and PVC, is expected to see significant changes in trade flows due to geopolitical tensions and overcapacity leading to narrowed profits and price declines [1] - The U.S. has reinstated tariffs on imported PET, putting pressure on major Asian exporters such as South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Malaysia, which may need to shift focus to alternative markets like the EU and Brazil [1] - India's anti-dumping duties on PVC imports, coupled with domestic demand growth, are likely to alter global PVC trade flows, with the highest impact on China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Northeast Asian petrochemical producers are actively pursuing industry consolidation to address overcapacity issues, with companies like Mitsui Chemicals and Asahi Kasei considering business unit mergers [2] - Mitsubishi Chemical and Asahi Kasei may decide by 2027 whether to consolidate ethylene capacity into a single facility, potentially increasing VAM import demand in Japan [2] - The current downturn in the petrochemical industry is expected to last until at least 2028-2029, necessitating measures such as capacity consolidation, plant shutdowns, and cost reductions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate weakly. Although the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry and indirectly boost steel demand in the long - term, currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may still decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. - The supply of iron ore has increased, with overseas shipments reaching a high level in the same period. Although the demand for iron ore remains strong in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate as the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a range - bound pattern, and the operation difficulty is high. From a fundamental perspective, they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector, and the operation cost - effectiveness is relatively low [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although there is some support from the demand side, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited [14][17]. - The glass market shows a differentiated trend, with supply slightly increasing and inventory decreasing marginally. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand for soda ash is average, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [20][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.66%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14137 tons, and the position increased by 36313 lots. In the spot market, the prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for rebar is weak even in the traditional peak season. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13892 tons, and the position increased by 20862 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Although hot - rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly increased, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.56% (- 4.50), and the position decreased by 936 lots to 53.35 million lots. The weighted position was 84.20 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply of iron ore has increased, with the shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all rising. The demand is strong in the short - term, but the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SM601) of silicomanganese closed down 0.33% at 5970 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of silicomanganese is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 6000 yuan/ton and the support between 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 0.17% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 6 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of ferrosilicon is also in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 5800 yuan/ton and the support between 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8905 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 60). The weighted position increased by 5945 lots to 516168 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 195 yuan/ton and - 105 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although the demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity reduction and the resumption of production on the supply side [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 53205 yuan/ton, down 0.53% (- 285). The weighted position decreased by 5951 lots to 283593 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.1 yuan/kg, and 52.6 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 605 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity integration and downstream price transfer [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1208 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.11% (- 26). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1140 yuan respectively, with the former remaining unchanged and the latter increasing by 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 67.5 million cases (- 1.10%). The atmosphere in the market was bearish [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The spot market shows a differentiated trend. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has decreased marginally due to pre - holiday stocking. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1306 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.10% (- 28). The price in Shahe decreased by 23 yuan to 1216 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 4.19 million tons (- 1.10%), including a decrease of 2.84 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 1.35 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The atmosphere in the market was bullish [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for soda ash is average, and the orders before the National Day have increased, but the transaction is still based on rigid demand. The market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].