Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with polysilicon futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the polysilicon sector [1] Supply Side - Some polysilicon companies that previously reduced production due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming operations as market sentiment improves and policies promoting "anti-involution" are implemented [1] - Specific companies in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually implementing their resumption plans [1] Demand Side - Export demand is gradually being released within the month, but there may be a significant vacuum period for downstream orders due to the previous wave of installation rush [1] - Future pricing for silicon materials is expected to face downward pressure [1] Market Outlook - The silicon wafer segment has completed price alignment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak [1] - Despite the weak fundamentals, the integration of production capacity provides strong support, and long-term participation in long positions is still encouraged within the price range of 51,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton [1]

8月11日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，多晶硅期货主力合约开盘报50600.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，多晶硅主力最高触及51360.0元，下方探低49800元，涨幅达2.39%附近。 目前来看，多晶硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于多晶硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面：中国光伏行业协会：征集《价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》意 见。多晶硅方面，从供应端来看，此前因亏损或设备检修而减产停产的多晶硅企业，随着近期市场情绪 好转以及政策端"反内卷"措施推进，部分企业复产积极性提升。云南、新疆和青海等地的个别企业复产 计划逐步落实。需求端来看，下游电池企业对硅片涨价的接受程度存在差异，部分中小电池企业因成本 压力，采购意愿并不强烈，限制了硅片环节需求的进一步增长。且硅片行业整体开工率小幅降低，对多 晶硅的需求支撑力度减弱。部分主流规格组件价格下调，反映出终端市场对高价组件接受度不高。在这 种情况下，组件企业对上游多晶硅的采购更加谨慎，以控制成本，导致多晶硅需求增长面临瓶颈。综上 供给增加，需求减弱，预计本周多晶硅行情将面临继续调整。 ...

多晶硅周报 下周会议或有新的产能整合或出清动向， 多晶硅有望偏强震荡 纪元菲 从业资格：F3039458 投资咨询资格：Z0013180 联系方式：020-88818012 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025.8.8 1 多晶硅观点 | 品种 | 本月期货建议 | 主要逻辑 | 未来一个月定性分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅 | 下周会议或有新的 向，多晶硅有望偏 | 8月初，多晶硅期货价格震荡上行，主力合约换月至PS2511，上涨3.23% | 价格高位震荡 | | | | 至50790元/吨。从供需基本面来看，8月多晶硅供需双增，但供应端增速 | | | | | 较大，依旧面临累库压力。由于前期价格大幅上涨至完全成本之上，预计 | | | | 产能整合或出清动 | 未来仓单将进一步增加。但下周或有新的产能整合或出清动向，若产能整 | | | | | 合或产能出清有新进展，多晶硅有望再次上行，以逢低试多为主。但若暂 | | | | | 无新进展，则可能会在库存及仓单增加的压力下震荡回落。目前来看，在 | | | | 强震荡，以逢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the prices of polysilicon and industrial silicon, highlighting the impact of government policies aimed at reducing competition in the photovoltaic industry and the expected consolidation of production capacity [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Expectations - On August 6, polysilicon and industrial silicon futures saw a significant increase of nearly 5% [1]. - Since the beginning of August, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices have been volatile, with polysilicon prices experiencing a 52.73% increase in July without a major pullback, indicating market expectations for further capacity consolidation [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting energy-saving inspections on 41 polysilicon manufacturers, with results due by the end of September [4]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Financial Forecasts - Major photovoltaic companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, revealing significant losses: Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan, Tongwei Co. anticipates a loss of 4.9 to 5.2 billion yuan, and JA Solar forecasts a loss of 2.5 to 3 billion yuan [4]. - The China Securities Futures believes that the short-term price trends of polysilicon will heavily depend on the strength and timing of policy signals, with the next month being crucial for policy implementation [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - The largest photovoltaic ETF (515790) has seen a net inflow of 3.39 billion yuan since June 23, leading to a significant increase in fund shares [5]. - However, following a series of restrictions from the exchange after July 23, there has been a continuous net outflow of funds, with fund shares dropping to 16.565 billion yuan by August 5 [5].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点评 4 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 8360 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.5%，持 仓减仓 18176 手至 17.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9440 元/吨，较 上一交易日下跌 124 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回落至 9000 元/吨， 现货升水收至 510 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 48720 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 1.28%，持仓减仓 12729 手至 9.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投 硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现 货贴水收至 3930 元/吨。多晶硅政策预期见顶、估值出现瓶颈，市场关 注转向产业供应压力和需求弱态结构，现货锚定成本定价，期货中枢 跟随高品仓单溢价，产能整合动态消息给予盘面阶段升水。在多晶硅 产能集中整合和工业硅西南复产节奏中，持续跟踪空 SI 多 PS 机会。工 业硅将以电价补贴取消后成本为基准，西南复产成为边际驱动项。重 点关注政策落地情况，警惕产能收储或电价改革延迟，多头情绪下的 退潮踩踏风险。 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure among wafer manufacturers, leading to a slight price increase in polysilicon materials [1][2] Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon averages 44,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% week-on-week [1] - From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production is 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [1] - The expected domestic polysilicon production for August is around 125,000 tons [1] - The integration of polysilicon production capacity is crucial for maintaining a balance in supply and demand, with a target capacity reduction to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183RN single crystal wafers averaging 1.20 yuan/piece (up 9.09%), 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.00%), and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece (up 7.64%) [2] - The increase in wafer prices is driven by rising raw material costs and an increase in downstream purchasing orders [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic due to effective policy implementation and industry self-discipline, with strong price support from silicon wafer manufacturers [3] - The future price trends will depend on the downstream market's acceptance of price increases, as current price rises are based on expectations and short-term policy effects [3] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with 183N averaging 0.29 yuan/W and both 210RN and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W, reflecting a rise of 5.6% to 7.4% [3] Component Market - The demand for components is expected to recover slightly as domestic orders increase, with manufacturers responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments [4][5] - The current transaction prices for TOPCon components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, although the transaction volume remains low [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月30日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 强支撑位8300 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究 工业硅 【核心逻辑】 下半年工业硅产业虽处于落后产能加速出清的产业周期中，但也将进入去库进程。从供给端看，随着丰水期 的到来，西南地区企业的生产计划逐渐落地，供应端压力将持续释放。但下游需求端的整体支撑力度则有望 增强：光伏产业因存在"反内卷"和产能整合预期，推动多晶硅价格大幅上行，为多晶硅生产企业带来一定 利润空间，这在一定 ...

Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European chemical industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with no short-term recovery in sight due to persistent supply overcapacity and structural challenges in the ethylene market [2][4]. Industry Overview - Over the past 18 months, the European chemical sector has experienced a wave of steam cracker shutdowns and downstream capacity consolidation, reflecting the ongoing weakness in the ethylene market [2]. - High raw material costs, low profit margins from naphtha cracking, and competition from low-priced imports have pressured the industry, leading to the closure or planned shutdown of six steam cracker facilities in Europe [2][3]. Company Actions - Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) announced the closure of its ethane cracker in Wilton, UK, on June 25, 2023, indicating a potential exit from the European market [2]. - Dow Chemical also announced plans to close its steam cracker in Germany by Q4 2027 due to structural challenges [2]. Market Dynamics - The demand for steam cracker capacity is expected to rise globally, with raw material demand projected to increase from 432 million tons in 2024 to 610 million tons by 2034 [3]. - Ethylene production from ethane and naphtha routes is expected to be approximately 74 million tons each in 2024, with ethane production projected to reach 101 million tons by 2034 [3]. Regional Competitiveness - European steam crackers lack competitiveness compared to lower-cost regions due to high energy and raw material costs and a bleak demand outlook [3][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the operating rate of European steam crackers is expected to be around 75%, necessitating a reduction of approximately 2 million tons per year of ethylene capacity to achieve a 90% operating rate [4]. Price Trends - The production profit and price of ethylene in Europe are expected to remain under pressure for the remainder of the year, with spot prices fluctuating around €790 per ton since the end of 2022 [4]. - In July 2023, ethylene prices fell to €563 per ton, marking a ten-year low outside of the COVID-19 pandemic period [4]. Market Sentiment - European ethylene producers are gradually losing their global competitive edge due to structural changes in demand, leading to reduced operating rates to avoid exacerbating supply overcapacity [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has further dampened the confidence of European ethylene companies, causing many market participants to delay significant actions [5].