蓝思转债
Search documents
转债周度专题:强赎转债怎么看?-20250921
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-21 05:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The subsequent performance of forced - redemption convertible bonds shows strong individual bond characteristics. It is difficult to use forced - redemption convertible bonds as a continuous investment strategy, but it is necessary to pay attention to them. It is recommended to focus on medium - sized convertible bonds with low conversion dilution rates, combining fundamentals and forced - redemption driving factors [2][20] - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. The risk of convertible bond valuation correction has been partially mitigated, but the short - term profit - making effect of the convertible bond market may be weak. Attention should be paid to the band trading opportunities of convertible bonds in a volatile market. Regarding terms, continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against forced - redemption risks, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.转债周度专题与展望 3.1.1. 强赎转债怎么看? - Some forced - redemption convertible bonds have shown remarkable performance before the last trading day this year, attracting market attention. In terms of historical performance, in 2025H2, 2024, and 2019, the prices of some forced - redemption convertible bonds showed a phased upward trend after forced redemption, but in 2024, the outstanding ones were mostly small - cap bonds, and in 2019, there were about 21 samples including industry leaders. Generally, the upward impulse effect of convertible bond prices weakens after 5 trading days, and forced redemption still exerts phased selling pressure on the underlying stocks [1][12] - When the convertible bond balance has a dilution rate of less than 5% on the underlying stock's floating shares, the convertible bond is more likely to rise after the forced - redemption announcement, and the price faces stronger downward pressure as the dilution rate increases. In terms of industry distribution, computer industry convertible bonds perform relatively well after the forced - redemption announcement, while pharmaceutical and biological convertible bonds show continuous corrections [2] 3.1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 - This week, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted, with significant differences in the performance of various indices. Looking forward, the current A - share market valuation has significantly recovered. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer product trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, and the export growth rate may decline. The Fed has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, and a weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and capital flows is expected to gradually begin [21] - At the convertible bond level, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. The risk of convertible bond valuation correction has been partially mitigated, but the short - term profit - making effect of the convertible bond market may be weak. Attention should be paid to the band trading opportunities of convertible bonds in a volatile market. Regarding terms, continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against forced - redemption risks, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot themes, domestic - demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [22][24] 3.2. 转债市场周度跟踪 3.2.1. 权益市场震荡分化,煤炭及电力设备领涨 - This week, the equity market fluctuated and differentiated, with large - cap blue - chips weakening. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.18%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value stocks. Thirteen Shenwan industry indices rose, and 18 fell. Coal, power equipment, and electronics led the gains, while banks, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance led the losses [27][31] 3.2.2. 可转债市场下跌,百元溢价率中位数回落 - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell 1.43%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 1.72%. The average daily trading volume increased. In terms of industries, 3 industries rose and 26 fell, with communication, national defense and military industry, and automobiles leading the gains, and non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and social services leading the losses. Most individual bonds fell. The weighted conversion value of the whole market decreased, and the premium rate increased. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate decreased [3][32][46] 3.2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 3.2.3.1. 分类估值变化 - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds decreased significantly. The valuations of convertible bonds with parities of 80 - 90 yuan and 120 - 130 yuan increased, while those of other parities decreased. Convertible bonds with ratings of AA+ and above saw an increase in valuation, while others decreased. The valuation of large - cap convertible bonds increased significantly, while that of other sizes decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [55] 3.2.3.2. 市场指数表现 - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and sizes declined. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker resistance to declines and greater rebound strength [67] 3.3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 3.3.1. 本周一级预案发行 - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and 1 convertible bond was issued but not yet listed, with a scale of 150 million yuan. There were 9 first - level approvals this week, including 2 convertible bonds approved by the listing committee, 4 approved by the general meeting of shareholders, and 3 new convertible bond plans [72] 3.3.2. 下修&赎回条款 - As of September 20, 2025, 6 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 announced no downward revisions, 2 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually made a downward revision. Two convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 4 announced non - redemption within a certain period, and 4 announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 20 were in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period [76][78][80]