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2026年春季北交所新股投资策略:深化改革,加速扩容
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-17 08:43
Group 1 - The report indicates that the issuance volume of new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is expected to significantly increase, with a projected fundraising total of 14.032 billion yuan from 38 projects that have passed the review but not yet issued [3][18][24] - The first-day price increase of new stocks is anticipated to narrow, as the valuation remains at historical lows, and the liquidity premium is expected to decrease, returning to fundamentals [3][40][54] - The online lottery rate for new stock subscriptions is expected to stabilize at around 0.03%, supported by the steady increase in fundraising amounts [3][59] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of reforming the issuance system, particularly focusing on the path for unprofitable companies to go public, and suggests that the resumption of inquiry-based issuance is necessary [3][77][79] - The discussion around market capitalization allocation is gaining traction, but caution is advised due to potential impacts on market volatility [3][19] - If inquiry-based issuance is resumed, the expected offline lottery rate could be as high as 0.32%, with anticipated absolute returns of 537,600 yuan per stock [3][19] Group 3 - The report notes that 43 institutions have released strategic placements in 2026, with an overall floating return rate of +392.4% and a success rate of 100% [3][24] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality projects currently under review, with 14 noteworthy candidates identified for potential investment [3][24][32] - The strategic placement market has evolved since October 2025, with a focus on employee stock ownership and major institutional participation [3][24]