Core Insights - The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced a voluntary program to include GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes treatment drugs in Medicaid and Medicare Part D coverage following a price reduction agreement reached by the Trump administration with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) [1][2] Group 1: Program Details - The new program, based on the "BALANCE Initiative," aims to negotiate drug prices directly, establish standardized coverage terms, and set caps on out-of-pocket costs for patients [1] - Eligible Medicare beneficiaries will only need to pay $50 per month for GLP-1 drugs, including Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide) and Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) [1] Group 2: Implementation Timeline - CMS plans to launch a pilot project for GLP-1 drug payments under Medicare in July 2026, allowing beneficiaries to purchase drugs at government-negotiated prices [2] - The program is expected to start for Medicaid in May 2026 and expand to Medicare in January 2027 [1][2] Group 3: Drug Pricing and Development - The Trump administration's agreement revealed that two anticipated oral weight loss drugs being developed by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will be priced at $149 per month for Medicare, Medicaid beneficiaries, and self-paying patients [2] - Novo Nordisk's oral weight loss drug was approved for market release recently, while Eli Lilly's similar drug is still under review [2]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug Orforglipron has shown promising results, achieving an average weight loss of 10.5% in obese patients with diabetes, which is better than Novo Nordisk's oral drug that reported a 9.2% weight loss [1][3] Group 1: Drug Performance and Market Impact - The average weight loss for patients receiving the highest dose of Orforglipron was approximately 21 pounds, with significant improvements in blood sugar, blood pressure, blood lipids, and inflammation markers [3] - Following the announcement, Eli Lilly's stock surged by 5.85%, while Novo Nordisk's stock fell by over 3% [4] - Eli Lilly plans to submit a formal application to the FDA for Orforglipron by the end of this year, aiming for a market launch in 2026 [1][8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Market Potential - The global weight loss drug market is projected to reach $95 billion by 2030, with oral medications seen as key to unlocking a larger market compared to injectable drugs [7] - Injectable drugs are limited by high costs and cold chain storage requirements, while oral drugs are easier to distribute and have lower manufacturing costs, potentially reaching over 1 billion users globally [8] - Currently, no oral weight loss drug has been approved, making each trial result critical for market sentiment [8] Group 3: Company Actions and Investor Sentiment - After disappointing results from a previous trial, Eli Lilly executives and board members collectively purchased $4.5 million in company stock, marking the largest internal buyback since 2019 [6] - Eli Lilly's stock had previously dropped over 10% year-to-date, while Novo Nordisk's stock had plummeted over 43% [5]