Core Insights - The 2026 Drugs to Watch report by Clarivate identifies eleven therapies expected to significantly impact clinical practice and achieve strong commercial potential in the coming year [1][2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of anticipating emerging drug trends and understanding market dynamics to navigate the complex pharmaceutical landscape [3] Metabolic Disease - Orforglipron and Retatrutide, both developed by Eli Lilly, are highlighted for managing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with innovative delivery methods [4][5] - The report projects obesity drug sales to reach USD 150 billion by 2035, emphasizing the need for real-world effectiveness and differentiation in safety and clinical value [16] Rare Conditions - Development in rare diseases is expanding into neurological, psychiatric, and hematologic conditions, requiring targeted engagement and evidence-driven approaches [17] - Therapies like VOYXACT® for immunoglobulin A nephropathy and Relacorilant for ovarian cancer are noted for their potential in these areas [8][13] Oncology - The report features therapies such as Gedatolisib for breast cancer and Tolebrutinib for multiple sclerosis, showcasing advancements in precision oncology [10][9] - The increasing complexity of regulatory pathways in the U.S. and Europe is highlighted as a challenge for companies developing treatments for rare diseases [17] Delivery Innovations - The report underscores the growing importance of delivery innovations, including extended-release formulations and oral alternatives to injectable drugs, which can enhance patient adherence [18] - Mainland China is emerging as a significant market and source of innovation, influencing global strategies in oncology and metabolic disease [18] Methodology and Analysis - The report's findings are based on evaluations from over 160 analysts using integrated, AI-enhanced datasets covering the full R&D and commercialization lifecycle [20][21] - Therapies were selected based on their potential to achieve blockbuster status, defined as reaching USD 1 billion in annual sales within five years [20]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities predicts that the earnings per share of Gree Pharmaceutical-B (01672) will be -0.32, -0.35, and -0.38 HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and estimates the company's fair market value at 18.366 billion HKD, corresponding to a target price of 18.38 HKD, initiating a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Weight Loss Market Potential - The prevalence of overweight or obesity is rapidly increasing, expected to affect nearly 3 billion people globally by 2030 [2] - Current weight loss drugs, primarily GLP-1 drugs, have low clinical usage rates, poor adherence, and significant weight rebound after discontinuation, indicating a need for improved options [2] - Real-world research suggests that more accessible, safer, and convenient GLP-1 drugs with longer dosing intervals could enhance usage rates and adherence, with oral, ultra-long-acting, and fat-loss-preserving drugs identified as promising directions [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of ASC30 - GLP-1 oral small molecules, such as ASC30, have multiple advantages over peptide-based drugs, with Eli Lilly's Orforglipron being the only oral small molecule to successfully complete Phase III clinical trials [3] - ASC30 is in the second tier of global development, showing stronger agonistic activity and higher exposure levels compared to Orfor, with optimal weight loss data and notable safety advantages in U.S. Phase I and II trials [3] - The increasing demand for business development (BD) opportunities in oral small molecules, especially after Orfor's Phase III results fell short of expectations, enhances ASC30's potential [3] Group 3: ASC47 and New Pipeline Developments - ASC47, a unique THRβ agonist, is part of the fat-loss-preserving pipeline, with the fastest progress seen in Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab, which shows improved weight loss effects when combined with semaglutide [4] - ASC47 demonstrated significantly enhanced weight loss effects in Phase I trials when combined with semaglutide, with a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions and improved blood lipid profiles [4] - Since October 2025, the company has accelerated the clinical advancement of four new pipelines, including oral multi-target peptides and monthly subcutaneous injections, aiming to complete mainstream targets and report preliminary clinical data by the end of 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities predicts that the earnings per share for Gree Pharmaceutical-B (01672) will be -0.32, -0.35, and -0.38 HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and estimates the company's fair market value at 18.366 billion HKD, leading to a target price of 18.38 HKD, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned [1] Group 1: Weight Loss Market Potential - The prevalence of overweight and obesity is rapidly increasing, expected to affect nearly 3 billion people globally by 2030 [1] - Current weight loss drugs, primarily GLP-1 medications, have low clinical usage rates, poor adherence, and significant weight rebound after discontinuation [1] - Real-world research indicates that more accessible, safer, and more convenient GLP-1 drugs with longer dosing intervals could enhance usage rates and adherence, with oral, ultra-long-acting, and fat-loss-preserving medications identified as promising directions [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of ASC30 - The oral small molecule GLP-1, Orforglipron (Orfor) from Eli Lilly, is currently the only oral small molecule to have successfully completed Phase III clinical trials [2] - ASC30, developed by the company, is in the second tier of global development and shows stronger agonistic activity and higher exposure levels compared to Orfor, with superior weight loss data and safety in U.S. Phase I and II trials [2] - The increasing demand for business development (BD) opportunities in oral small molecules is noted, especially after Orfor's Phase III results fell short of expectations, enhancing ASC30's potential [2] Group 3: ASC47 for Fat Loss and Muscle Preservation - The pipeline for fat loss and muscle preservation includes Bimagrumab (Bima) from Eli Lilly, which shows the fastest progress, while ASC47 is the only THRβ agonist [3] - Phase II clinical results indicate that Bima combined with semaglutide (Semag) improves weight loss outcomes but has safety concerns such as muscle cramps [3] - ASC47 has demonstrated significantly improved weight loss effects when combined with Semag in Phase I trials, with a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions and improved blood lipid profiles, positioning it as a safer fat loss and muscle preservation drug [3]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is shifting its focus from merely achieving higher weight loss percentages to exploring alternative methods for addressing obesity, particularly through new drug mechanisms and oral formulations [3][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Innovations - The weight loss drug industry is reaching a consensus that a 25% weight loss may be the upper limit achievable through drug interventions, with increasing difficulty in achieving stable and tolerable breakthroughs [3][6]. - On December 8, 2023, several biotech companies focused on next-generation weight loss drugs saw significant stock price increases, driven by early clinical data on oral small molecules and new mechanisms outside of GLP-1 [3]. - Eli Lilly's Retatrutide reported a 28.7% weight loss in its Phase III TRIUMPH-4 study, surpassing the previously accepted 25% ceiling, but this came with higher discontinuation rates and new adverse reaction signals [5][13]. Group 2: Clinical Data and Implications - The TRIUMPH-4 study included 445 participants with obesity or overweight and knee osteoarthritis, indicating a larger weight loss potential due to the higher baseline BMI of participants [15]. - Retatrutide demonstrated significant improvements in pain scores related to osteoarthritis, suggesting its clinical value extends beyond weight loss alone [20]. - The study revealed that 47.7% and 58.6% of participants in the 9 mg and 12 mg groups, respectively, achieved at least 25% weight loss, while only 1.3% in the placebo group did [22]. Group 3: Future Directions in Weight Loss Drug Development - The next generation of weight loss drugs is expected to focus on improving tolerability and adherence rather than solely maximizing weight loss percentages, with oral formulations and receptor signaling pathways becoming key areas of exploration [29][30]. - Companies like Structure Therapeutics and Wave Life Sciences are developing oral small molecules and RNA therapies that aim to enhance patient compliance and address body composition rather than just weight [30][36]. - The competition in the weight loss drug market is evolving towards a more nuanced understanding of patient needs, emphasizing long-term management and the optimization of body composition [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug, semaglutide oral tablets for weight loss, has received FDA approval, marking it as the first oral GLP-1 weight loss medication approved globally. However, it is not yet approved for sale in China [3]. Group 1: Product Details - The initial dosage form approved is a 25mg oral tablet [4]. - Prior to FDA approval, all oral semaglutide was used for diabetes treatment, with significant dosage differences compared to weight loss indications. Non-diabetic users reported poor weight loss results [5][6]. - The approved oral semaglutide for weight loss has a starting dose of 1.5mg, increasing to 4mg after one month, then to 9mg in the third month, and a maintenance dose of 25mg thereafter [6]. Group 2: Clinical Efficacy - Clinical data published in NEJM indicates that the 25mg oral semaglutide can lead to an average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks, with over 34.4% of patients achieving a weight loss of 20% or more, comparable to injection forms [7]. Group 3: Usage Guidelines and Limitations - Experts warn against taking multiple tablets at once to increase dosage, as the absorption rate of oral peptides is low (less than 1%), and exceeding the recommended dose can lead to serious side effects [8][9]. - The oral semaglutide must be taken on an empty stomach with strict dietary restrictions, unlike competitors like Orforglipron, which has higher bioavailability and fewer restrictions [10]. Group 4: Future Developments - Novo Nordisk is increasing its research on next-generation oral weight loss therapies, including a new drug, amycretin, which combines GLP-1 and insulin receptor agonists, showing potential for better clinical applications [10]. - There is currently no clinical registration progress for the oral semaglutide weight loss drug in China, and Novo Nordisk has not clarified its commercialization path in the region [10]. Group 5: Lifestyle Interventions - Experts emphasize that weight loss efficacy varies among individuals, and lifestyle interventions are fundamental to any weight loss strategy. Comprehensive and long-term lifestyle changes are recommended alongside any pharmacological treatments [11].

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide for weight loss has received FDA approval, marking it as the first GLP-1 oral weight loss medication globally, although it is not yet approved in China [1][2]. Group 1: Product Details - The oral semaglutide for weight loss requires higher doses due to low bioavailability, with the approved dosage being 25mg, which is significantly higher than the previously available doses for diabetes treatment [1][3]. - The initial treatment dose is 1.5mg, increasing to 4mg after one month, then to 9mg in the third month, and finally maintaining at 25mg [3]. - Clinical data indicates that the 25mg oral semaglutide can lead to an average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks, with over 34.4% of patients achieving a weight loss of 20% or more [3]. Group 2: Market and Usage Insights - Many users of oral semaglutide for weight loss are from the medical field, with most products sourced from Hong Kong and Japan, often through unofficial channels [2]. - Some users report dissatisfaction with the weight loss effects of oral semaglutide, leading them to switch to injectable forms for better results [2]. - Experts emphasize that prior to FDA approval, all oral semaglutide was intended for diabetes treatment, and using it for weight loss without diabetes may yield poor results [2]. Group 3: Safety and Administration - Experts warn against taking multiple pills at once to increase dosage, as this could lead to serious side effects without enhancing efficacy [4][5]. - The oral semaglutide must be taken on an empty stomach with strict dietary restrictions, which may limit its convenience compared to competitors like Orforglipron, which has higher bioavailability and fewer restrictions [5][6]. - Novo Nordisk is also advancing research on next-generation oral weight loss therapies, such as amycretin, which combines GLP-1 and insulin receptor agonism [6].

for more in its first ever GLP1 pill. Guggenheim partner Sheamus Fernandez joins us now. He is the firm's managing director and pharma analyst.Sheamus, great to have you with us. >> Nice to see you. >> Does this change the competitive landscape at all with Eli Liy's or four coming on um and and some other competitors coming, you know, down the pike.>> It's a great question. I mean, I think it doesn't necessarily change the competitive landscape that dramatically. Um but it does give Novo an opportunity to g ...

Evan Seager is head of healthcare research at Beimo. He's only got a market perform on Novo. He says this is a big win, but sees a challenged road ahead.He's here on set with us. First of all, welcome. >> Thank you for having me.It's great to be here despite the weather. >> Yes. And as you say, despite this having been a total hold on for dear life year for healthcare broadly, but a nice finish.No, I mean, go back to the summer when you had the health insurers, you know, collapsing and all this stuff going ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the first oral GLP-1 weight loss medication, Wegovy, by the U.S. regulatory authorities marks the beginning of a new era in obesity treatment, with potential for further expansion in this category [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - Following the announcement, the stock of Novo Nordisk rose approximately 10% in after-hours trading, ultimately closing with a gain of 9.5% [2]. - The approval is a significant victory for Novo Nordisk, which has faced intense competition from Eli Lilly in the weight loss drug market, leading to pressure on its stock earlier in the year [3]. - Novo Nordisk plans to launch the new oral medication in early January at a cash price of $149 per month, with potential costs as low as $25 per month for insured patients [4]. Group 2: Clinical and Market Insights - The oral medication contains 25 mg of semaglutide, the same active ingredient found in the injectable versions of Wegovy and Ozempic, and is expected to provide significant weight loss results [4]. - Clinical trial results from the Oasis 4 study indicated that patients taking the 25 mg dose lost an average of approximately 16.6% of their body weight over 64 weeks, supporting the drug's efficacy [4]. - The FDA approval also allows the drug to be used for reducing the risk of major cardiovascular events in adults with obesity and diagnosed cardiovascular disease [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Analysts note that the approval of the GLP-1 weight loss pill is a much-needed win for Novo Nordisk amid challenges to maintain its market share in the incretin market [5]. - Earlier this year, Eli Lilly captured a significant market share with its injection drug Zepbound, which has been shown to be more effective than Novo Nordisk's Wegovy [6]. - The market for weight loss drugs is expected to grow significantly, with Goldman Sachs analysts projecting that by 2030, weight loss medications could account for 24% of the global weight loss drug market, approximately $22 billion [6].

Weight loss drug Mounjaro’s manufacturer, Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) has crossed a significant threshold in Benzinga Edge's Stock Rankings, moving into the top decile for quality this week. This improvement in fundamental strength coincides with a bullish note from Bank of America, which argues the market is still underestimating the pharmaceutical giant’s dominance in the obesity sector.Check out LLY’s price here.Entering The Top DecileIn the latest weekly data update, Eli Lilly's quality score advanced ...