证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 原料药供给节奏变化加速 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年02月08日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1.原料药供给变化加速，关注后续量价变化 医 药 行 业 观 点 2. 全球GLP-1格局持续变化，中国企业出海之路仍在继续 截止2025年12月26日，礼来在美国GLP-1类药物的处方比例提升至60.5%，对比上一季度提升2.6个pp。GLP-1市场增量已基 本转向减重适应症，在减重效率和安全性方面，礼来的替尔泊肽具有显著优势。2025年全年礼来的替尔泊肽销售额365亿美 元，晋升成为全球"药王"。2026年GLP-1市场迎来重要变化是口服GLP-1类的药物上市，诺和诺德减重版的口服司美格鲁 肽片剂（Wegovy）已正式在美国市场销售，根据零售药房处方数据，在上市后的前四天内，该产品共获得约 3071 张处方， 显著超过同期的注射型Wegovy和Zepbound处方量，礼来的口服小分子新药Orforglipron预计将在2026年Q ...

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer commented on. Cramer noted that the company is “constantly taking share” from its competition, as he remarked: We have the chief maker of the GLP-1s, Eli Lilly, soaring more than 10% as it rolls out trial after trial to see what these drugs can do beyond weight loss and diabetes, things like alcohol and tobacco addiction. They can make the ATF obsolete. Lilly’s got a joint venture with NVIDIA where they’re going… after hard-to-treat diseases ...

据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，市场恐慌的核心在于一份远低于预期的收入指引——按固定汇率计算，公 司预计2026年营收将下滑5%至13%，这一数据暗示了美国肥胖症药物市场正面临比预期更严峻的定价 压力和销量瓶颈。 2月6日，据追风交易台消息，面对市场的剧烈反应，高盛分析师James Quigley在最新研报中指出，市场 目前的定价似乎已经完全计入了指引范围的下限，即悲观情绪已过度释放。 在发布了令人失望的2026财年指引后，诺和诺德股价一度暴跌18%，逼近五年来的低点。高盛认为，市 场反应过度，目前的股价实际上已经完全计入了公司2026财年指引的下限（即最悲观情景）。 尽管高盛将诺和诺德的目标价从436丹麦克朗下调8%至400丹麦克朗，但仍维持"买入"评级。分析师认 为，投资者低估了美国联邦医疗保险（Medicare）放开带来的销量增长潜力，以及口服版Wegovy发布 后的收入潜力。 不过，高盛也承认，此次财报电话会透露出的基调异常谨慎，尤其是关于美国市场定价阻力的描述—— 预计2026年将面临中双位数的定价逆风。这迫使高盛大幅调整了模型，不仅下调了2026年的营收和营业 利润预期，更关键的是大幅削减了对美国市场注 ...

研究早观点 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 市场走势 彭皓辰 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,075.92 | -0.64 | | 深证成指 | | 13,952.71 | -1.44 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,670.42 | -0.60 | | 中小板指 | | 8,423.99 | -1.20 | | 创业板指 | | 3,260.28 | -1.55 | | 科创 50 | | 1,432.52 | -1.44 | 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 2026 年 2 月 6 日 星期五 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证非银】行业周报（20260126-20260201）：-建设金融强国，关注 板块投资价值 【山证军工】国防军工 2026 年度策略-商业航天前景明朗，发射能力 亟需提升 【公司评论】科沃斯(603486.SH)：科沃斯：盈利能力改善，加速迈向 多品类、全场景服务机器人 【行业评论】礼来（Lilly）：替尔泊肽登顶全球"药 ...

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) stock is trading lower on Thursday, possibly on profit-taking after the stock rallied roughly 10% on Wednesday.On Wednesday, Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, beating the consensus of $6.67.The company’s sales reached $19.3 billion, beating the consensus of $17.96 billion.The obesity drug maker expects sales between $80 billion-$83 billion compared to the Wall Street estimate of $77.62 billion.Eli Lilly sees fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，据礼来(LLY.US)披露2025年业绩显示，替尔泊肽全年销售 365.07亿美元(+122%)，该药物加冕2025年全球"药王"，并有望多年蝉联。据Evaluate预测，到2030年全 球销售额前十药物中约半数为GLP-1类药物。当前，MNC已将减重视为核心的战略要地，大额BD和并 购频现，今年催化密集。减重领域近期BD仍在持续，未来口服小分子、超长效GLP-1和小核酸等新方 向仍有BD机会。 相关标的：歌礼制药-B(01672)、恒瑞医药(600276.SH)、众生药业(002317.SZ)、悦康药业(688658.SH)、 石药集团(01093)、阳光诺和(688621.SH)等。 减重成为MNC战略要地，今年催化密集 近年，MNC在减重领域投入巨量资源，大额BD和并购频现。JPM大会上各MNC亦将减重作为核心战略 要地：1)礼来：预计Orforglipron26Q2获批，瑞他鲁肽将继续读出数据，Eloralintide和Brenipatide今年将 开启III期临床；2)诺和诺德：推出口服版Wegovy，CagriSema年内获批，BD方面会继续寻找与当前管线 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - Tirzepatide has been crowned the "King of Drugs," with annual sales reaching $36.507 billion in 2025, representing a 122% increase. It is expected to maintain its leading position for several years. Other notable drugs include Pembrolizumab with $31.7 billion in sales (+7%) and Semaglutide with approximately $34.606 billion (+18%) [9]. - The weight loss market is becoming a strategic focus for multinational corporations (MNCs), with significant investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) occurring in this sector. Major players are prioritizing weight loss in their strategies, with various drugs expected to enter clinical trials and receive approvals in 2026 [9]. - The demand for weight loss solutions is driving ongoing business development (BD) activities, with recent agreements indicating a robust pipeline for future innovations in this area [9]. - The commercial value of weight loss drugs is anticipated to be rapidly released, with MNCs viewing this sector as a core strategic area, leading to continued BD opportunities in oral small molecules, long-acting GLP-1s, and small nucleic acids [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Genscript Biotech Corporation (01672, Buy) - Hengrui Medicine (600276, Buy) - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317, Buy) - Yuyuan Pharmaceutical (688658, Buy) - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group (01093, Not Rated) - Sunshine Novo Nordisk (688621, Buy) [9].

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAdrienne Brown - President of Lilly ImmunologyDan Skovronsky - Chief Scientific and Product OfficerDave Ricks - Chair and CEOIlya Yuffa - President of Lilly USA and Global Customer CapabilitiesKen Custer - President of Lilly Cardiometabolic HealthLucas Montarce - CFOMike Czapar - SVP of Investor RelationsPatrik Jonsson - President of Lilly InternationalConference Call ParticipantsAsad Haider - Stock Anal ...

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAdrienne Brown - President of Lilly ImmunologyAkash Tewari - Global Head of Biopharmaceutical ResearchDan Skovronsky - Chief Scientific and Product OfficerDave Ricks - Chair and CEOEvan Seigerman - Managing Director and Head of Healthcare ResearchIlya Yuffa - President of Lilly USA and Global Customer CapabilitiesKen Custer - President of Lilly Cardiometabolic HealthLucas Montarce - CFOMichael Yee - Glob ...

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 10:00 AM ET Speaker5Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Lilly Q4 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. Should you request assistance during the call, please press Star, then zero, and an operator will assist you offline. I would now like to turn the con ...