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美联储降息0.25%落地!一文看懂对香港楼市影响 高力:预测2026年楼价将有3-5%升幅
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 08:39
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% is expected to have a positive impact on the Hong Kong property market, potentially stimulating demand and increasing transaction volumes [1][2][4][11]. Group 1: Impact on Mortgage Market - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "liberation" for the Hong Kong mortgage market, likely reducing borrowing costs and enhancing home-buying and upgrading demand [2][11]. - Lower mortgage rates could create an attractive "window period" for potential buyers, especially those sensitive to mortgage costs [2][4]. - The reduction in mortgage costs is expected to alleviate repayment pressures for homeowners, encouraging them to re-enter the market [2][11]. Group 2: Market Activity and Price Predictions - The anticipated increase in demand, coupled with improved bank financing conditions, is expected to boost both secondary and primary property transaction volumes in the short term [3][5]. - High property prices have shown signs of recovery, with a projected increase of 3-5% in Hong Kong property prices by 2026 due to the Fed's actions and local demand factors [4][5]. - The market is expected to see a rise in transactions, particularly in the luxury segment, with predictions of record-high sales in the second half of 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Buyer Sentiment and Market Confidence - The Fed's rate cut is believed to enhance buyer confidence, potentially leading to a resurgence in market activity as previously hesitant buyers reconsider their options [6][11]. - The current environment is viewed as a favorable entry point for buyers, especially for those looking to purchase or upgrade their homes [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual recovery in transaction volumes and prices [7][12].