Core Insights - The overall property registration volume in Hong Kong for July reached 7,199 cases, a slight decrease of approximately 1% from June's 7,221 cases, indicating a stable market above the 7,000 mark for two consecutive months, a situation last seen from April to May of the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The recent property transaction activity is considered quite active, reflecting a positive market sentiment following the easing of bank interest rates and a reduction in trade tensions [1] - The registration cases in July primarily reflect the market conditions of June due to the time required for signing and submitting sale agreements to the land registry [1] Group 2: Residential Property Performance - In the residential sector, excluding public housing, the registration volume for new private homes and second-hand residential properties totaled 6,104 cases in July, a decrease of about 2.7% from June's 6,273 cases, yet still marking the second-highest level in eight months [1] Group 3: Non-Residential Property Performance - The registration volume for non-residential properties, including commercial shops, parking spaces, and others, reached 1,000 cases in July, an increase of approximately 16.4% from June's 859 cases, marking a 23-month high and the first time surpassing 1,000 cases since August 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The latest Central Region Index (CRI) for May shows a rental yield of 3.54%, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.06 percentage points, the highest level since December 2011 [1] - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a recovery, with increased buyer interest, although second-hand property prices remain constrained due to low promotional prices for new developments [1] - The rental market is active, entering a seasonal peak, which is driving rental yields above the 3.5% level [1] Rental Yield Trends - The CRI_Mass rental yield for May is reported at 3.70%, up 0.07 percentage points month-on-month, while the CRI for small units is at 3.66%, also up 0.07 percentage points [2] - The CRI for large units stands at 2.89%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.02 percentage points, returning to levels seen in February 2012 [2] - In Kowloon, the CRI_Mass yield is 3.73%, up 0.13 percentage points, the second highest since November 2011 [2] Regional Performance - The rental yield in Hong Kong Island for CRI_Mass is 3.67%, up 0.11 percentage points, reaching a 14-year high since November 2010 [2] - New Territories West CRI_Mass yield remains stable at 3.73%, while New Territories East shows a slight decline to 3.63%, down 0.02 percentage points [2] - Among 143 surveyed estates, 133 have rental yields exceeding the H mortgage rate of 2.77%, indicating over 90% of estates are yielding more than rental costs [2] Notable Estates - Estates with rental yields above 4% include: 嘉辉花园 (5.41%), 得宝花园 (5.04%), 南丰新村 (4.96%), 美景花园 (4.57%), and 华景山庄 (4.57%) [2] - Other notable estates include 杏花村 (3.76%), 太古城 (3.51%), and 美孚新村 (4.37%) [3]

Group 1 - The Central Valuation Index (CVI) for major banks has risen to 65.38 points, marking a significant increase of 5.59 points from last week's 59.79 points, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1] - The CVI has increased for eight consecutive weeks, totaling a rise of 29.19 points, surpassing three critical thresholds: the lower limit of the 40-point boundary, the 50-point boundary, and the upper limit of the 60-point boundary [1] - The local interbank interest rates in Hong Kong have significantly decreased since May, alleviating banks' funding pressure, leading to a more optimistic mortgage lending attitude among banks [1] Group 2 - Following the government's withdrawal of cooling measures in February last year, the transaction volume in Hong Kong's property market rebounded, with the CVI recovering from low levels [2] - The CVI had previously dropped into the 40 to 60-point range, indicating a lack of upward momentum in property prices, which faced downward pressure [2] - The recent interest rate cuts and the government's policy report in October have contributed to a steady increase in the CVI, which has now surpassed the 40 and 50-point thresholds, coinciding with a stabilization in property prices [2] Group 3 - The global economic and political environment has faced new challenges due to factors such as the trade war and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, impacting the CVI [3] - The CVI had fluctuated around the 50-point boundary for 13 weeks before sharply dropping to around 40 points, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - The latest data shows that the CCL (Centaline Property Index) has increased by 1.24% following the relaxation of stamp duty, while property prices in Hong Kong have cumulatively declined by 0.78% in the first half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Hong Kong property market is experiencing a surge in transactions, with a notable increase in both primary and secondary market activities due to low mortgage rates and increased buyer confidence [1][2] - Central Plains Real Estate reported a total of 15 transactions in the top ten estates over the weekend, marking a 25% week-on-week increase and reaching a four-week high [1] - The most transactions were recorded in Shatin's First City with 3 deals, followed by other estates like 康怡花园 (Kang Yi Garden), 新都城 (New Town), and 嘉湖山庄 (Jiahua Mountain Villa) with 2 deals each [1] Group 2 - The secondary market is seeing strong demand for bargain properties, as buyers are shifting their focus from the primary market due to a lack of large new launches [1][2] - Midland Realty's statistics show that the first weekend of July recorded approximately 16 transactions in the top ten blue-chip estates, a 23.1% increase from the previous weekend, continuing a trend of rising transactions over three consecutive weekends [1] - The expectation for the primary market is to achieve around 2,000 transactions this month, indicating a significant month-on-month increase, while the secondary market is also anticipated to perform well due to the positive market sentiment [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a positive atmosphere, leading to an increase in secondary market transactions, with the Central City Leading Index (CCL) rising for three consecutive weeks by 0.73% [1] - The latest CCL is reported at 136.56 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32%, indicating signs of price stabilization after a period of decline [1] - The CCL remains at an 8.5-year low, with a cumulative decline of 0.78% expected in Hong Kong property prices by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the market four times since June, purchasing a total of HKD 590.72 billion, which may influence local secondary property prices [2] - The CCL Mass index is reported at 137.89 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30%, while the CCL for small units is at 136.52 points, up 0.29% [2] - Both CCL Mass and CCL for small units have risen for five consecutive weeks, with cumulative increases of 1.24% and 1.16% respectively [2] Group 3 - The property prices in four districts have shown fluctuations, with the Kowloon CCL Mass rising to 136.15 points, marking the largest increase in 16 weeks at 1.47% [3] - New Territories West CCL Mass increased to 126.83 points, with a week-on-week rise of 1.14%, the largest in 18 weeks [3] - The indices for Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories West, and New Territories East are at levels comparable to those in mid-2016 to early 2017 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest CVI has risen to 59.79 points, marking a significant increase of 2.10 points from last week and a total rise of 23.60 points over the past seven weeks, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The CVI has successfully crossed two critical thresholds in the past seven weeks, approaching the upper limit of the 60-point boundary, indicating a potential recovery in the Hong Kong property market [3]. - The increase in new property sales and a significant drop in interbank rates have contributed to a positive shift in bank mortgage attitudes, suggesting a stabilization in property prices in the short term [3]. Group 2: Property Valuation Insights - The latest CCL stands at 136.13 points, with a projected decline of 1.10% in property prices for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Among 143 CCL component estates, 90 (62.9%) have seen a decrease in valuations, with the highest drop rates observed in the Hong Kong Island region [3][4]. - The number of estates with valuation declines exceeding 3% totals 38, accounting for 42.2% of the declining estates [4]. Group 3: Specific Property Performance - In the first half of this year, 10 estates in New Territories West experienced valuation drops over 3%, while Hong Kong Island, New Territories East, and Kowloon had 7, 6, and 4 estates respectively [4]. - The top five estates with the highest valuation drops include specific units in various locations, with declines ranging from 8.09% to 9.31% [4]. - Conversely, 39 CCL component estates have seen valuation increases of over 1%, with notable gains in Kowloon and specific estates in Hong Kong Island [5].

Group 1 - The overall property market in Hong Kong has seen a rebound in transactions due to the cessation of tariff disputes and a decrease in interest rates, with a temporary pause expected before further upward movement [1][3] - In June 2025, there were 7,275 property transactions recorded, a 13% increase from May's 6,466 transactions, marking a seven-month high [1] - The total value of property transactions in June reached HKD 65.595 billion, a 29% month-on-month increase, the highest since May 2024 [1] Group 2 - The primary residential market showed significant growth, with first-hand private residential transactions rising 31% in June to 2,099, the highest in nearly three months [2] - The total value of first-hand private residential transactions surged 139% to HKD 34.830 billion, driven by substantial internal transfers in specific developments [2] - The top three new developments in terms of transaction volume were SIERRA SEA 1B (721 transactions), Kai Wo Shan (125 transactions), and UNI RESIDENCE (80 transactions) [2] Group 3 - The secondary residential market also benefited from favorable conditions, with transactions increasing 11% to 3,429 in June, maintaining above 3,000 for three consecutive months [2] - The total value of secondary residential transactions rose 3% to HKD 23.594 billion, indicating a simultaneous increase in both volume and value [2] - The non-residential market saw an overall increase in transactions, with commercial properties performing well despite a slight decline in parking space transactions [3] Group 4 - The overall commercial property transactions increased by 8% in June, totaling 836, although the total transaction value decreased by 59% to HKD 4.019 billion due to high previous month comparisons [3] - The market is expected to experience a slight decline in transaction numbers in July, potentially dropping to around 6,710, but there remains potential for future growth [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage market has shown significant recovery, with June 2025 recording 6,508 registrations for existing properties, a substantial increase of 32.3% from May's 4,920 registrations, marking a 22-month high [1] - The number of mortgage registrations for new properties also rebounded significantly to 560 in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 50.9% [1] - Overall, the first half of 2025 saw a notable year-on-year increase in mortgage registrations for both existing and new properties, with existing property registrations rising by 18.7% to 27,784 and new property registrations soaring by 112% to 3,145 [1][2] Market Share Analysis - Bank of China (Hong Kong) maintained its leading position in the existing property mortgage market for nine consecutive months, achieving a market share of 33.8% with 9,390 registrations [1][2] - In June, the market share of Bank of China (Hong Kong) increased by 5.8 percentage points to 34.7%, while HSBC's market share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 22.2%, keeping it in second place [2] - Hang Seng Bank's market share increased by 3.4 percentage points to 16.1%, ranking third, while Standard Chartered Bank's market share decreased slightly to 5.4%, moving up one position to fourth [2] Additional Market Insights - The top five to ten banks in the existing property mortgage market in June included Bank of East Asia (4.8%), ICBC Asia (3.1%), China International Capital Corporation (2.5%), Citibank (1.9%), and Bank of Communications (1.8%) [3] - The overall market share of the top four banks accounted for 78.4% of the existing property mortgage registrations in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.1 percentage points [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% aligns with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1] - HSBC has announced that its prime rate will remain at 5.25%, which is also in line with market expectations, suggesting that Hong Kong banks will likely follow suit [1] - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a recovery, driven by significantly reduced mortgage rates, lower housing costs, and increased demand for purchasing over renting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice this year, potentially bringing the rate below 4% and gradually down to the low 3% range [1] - The anticipated decrease in U.S. interest rates is expected to lead to a corresponding reduction in Hong Kong's prime rate, which could drop by an additional 0.25% after a previous reduction of 0.625% [1] - The expected decline in the capped interest rate for mortgages in Hong Kong to 3.25% will lower income requirements for mortgage applicants, further supporting the local property market [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak end of its trading band at 7.85, which may trigger the Monetary Authority to intervene in the market [2] - The significant disparity between Hong Kong and U.S. interest rates has led to increased arbitrage activities, and seasonal factors may contribute to a rise in Hong Kong interbank rates [2] - Despite the expected rise in interbank rates, it is anticipated that Hong Kong's mortgage rates will remain lower than levels seen before May of this year, fluctuating mainly between 1.84% and 2% to 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Tian'an" project in Tuen Mun, Hong Kong, has attracted significant attention due to substantial price reductions, reflecting the stark contrast between the market's upward and downward phases [1][2]. Group 1: Project Background - The project, originally named "Evergrande·Junlong Bay," was launched in 2019 and achieved remarkable success by selling all 151 units during its first phase, targeting small-sized apartments for first-time buyers [1][4]. - Evergrande acquired the Tuen Mun land for HKD 6.6 billion, with a floor price of HKD 8,300 per square foot, setting a record for the area during a market upturn [2]. Group 2: Price Reduction Details - On June 16, the project significantly reduced prices for 27 units, with usable areas ranging from 223 to 461 square feet, and total prices between HKD 2.148 million and HKD 4.173 million, with some units seeing price cuts exceeding 60% [1][6]. - For example, a unit's price dropped from HKD 5.78 million to HKD 2.287 million, marking a 60.4% decrease in price per square foot [6]. Group 3: Market Context - The ongoing high supply of new residential properties in Hong Kong has compelled developers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies to clear inventory, with current first-hand residential inventory recorded at 21,400 units as of the end of May [1][6]. - The price drop at the "Tian'an" project is not an isolated case, as other new developments in the region are also offering discounts of 20% to 30% compared to similar second-hand properties [6][19]. Group 4: Impact on Secondary Market - The secondary market has also experienced significant price declines, with many units seeing drops of over 50% [11]. - For instance, a unit sold on May 21 for HKD 2.08 million represented a 54% decrease from its previous purchase price [11]. Group 5: Future Market Predictions - The Hong Kong property market is expected to see an improvement in new home transactions, with an estimated 1,980 registrations for June, a 23% increase from May [16][19]. - Despite the anticipated recovery in the new home market, the secondary market remains under pressure, with a forecasted continued dominance of the first-hand market in the short term [21].