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 中国中铁(601390):Q3收入、利润降幅收窄
 HTSC· 2025-10-31 08:47
 Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintained from previous assessments [7].   Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 776.06 billion RMB (down 5.39% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.49 billion RMB (down 14.97% year-on-year) [1]. - The company has seen a positive growth in new contracts since Q2, indicating a potential improvement in fundamentals due to the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated issuance of special bonds [1][4]. - The overall gross margin improved in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 8.85%, up 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [2].   Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 776.06 billion RMB, with a net profit of 17.49 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.97% [1]. - The Q3 2025 revenue was 263.56 billion RMB, down 4.43% year-on-year but up 0.13% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.66 billion RMB, down 9.98% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 8.85%, showing an improvement compared to previous quarters [2].   Contract and Order Growth - The new contract amount for the first nine months of 2025 was 1,584.9 billion RMB, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, with Q3 alone contributing 476.2 billion RMB, up 6.0% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s backlog of uncompleted contracts reached 7,544.1 billion RMB, representing a growth of 9.6% compared to the end of the previous year [4].   Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 23.8 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 22.6 billion RMB respectively [5]. - The target price for A shares is set at 7.41 RMB and for H shares at 5.08 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x for A shares and 5.0x for H shares for 2026 [5].