"提前下达新增地方政府债务限额为2026年地方债早发行、早使用提供支撑。"刘蓉认为，一方面，有助 于"十五五"开局项目储备衔接，各地提前编制预算、做好项目前期工作，保障一季度项目开工与资金需 求，尽快形成实物工作量。另一方面，明确积极财政导向，有利于稳定市场对投资与资金投放的预期。 根据企业预警通数据，截至1月8日，已有北京、河北、山西等27地披露一季度发债计划，总规模约2万 亿元。 ● 本报记者 熊彦莎 1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 "'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南财经大学财政税 务学院教授刘蓉在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更 新等领域，有利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力 一季度经济平稳开局。 延续靠前发力节奏 财政部此前表示，将尽早提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，便于各地做好与2026年预算编制的衔 接，支持重点项目2026年一季度建设资金需求。 "地方债延续靠前发力节 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 制造业PMI重返扩张区间。 2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，12月份制造业采 购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，自4月以来首次升至扩张区间；非制造业商务 活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平同步改善。 对于12月制造业PMI明显回升的原因，东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳对记者表示，这主要受到稳增长政 策持续发力、出口保持韧性等因素拉动。 冯琳分析称，9月末至10月初推出的"两个5000亿"稳增长政策中，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已于10 月投放完毕，对基础设施投资和制造业投资的拉动效应在12月开始显现；与此同时，年底前加发的5000 亿元专项债将补充地方财力，为项目建设提供约2000亿元新增资金，这些因素共同推动了国内市场需求 回暖。 产需两端明显回升成为本月数据的一大亮点。国家统计局数据显示，12月份生产指数和新订单指数分别 为51.7%和50.8%，比上月分别上升1.7个和1.6个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧在解读数据时表示，新订单指数为下半年以来首次 ...

（原标题：年度盘点丨2025年中国创投：重拾向上动能，奔赴投资新程） 2025年，中国创投业走出了持续两年的低谷，以"募投管退"全链条回暖的态势重拾向上动能。 这一年，资金端与项目端亮点频出，市场暖意渐浓叠加政策精准发力，退出端的向好预期持续升温，投资人的体感愈发向好、信心稳步提振、布 局节奏也明显加快。年终岁末，创投人依旧马不停蹄的身影，预示着新一年行业的满血回归，在新一轮技术变革的浪潮与政策红利的持续释放 下，中国创投业这一驱动创新的巨大齿轮，正再度加速转动，奔赴新程。2026年即将来临之际，本报携手证券时报·全国创投协会联盟各成员单 位，共同评选出创投行业十大新闻，以飨读者。 国办一号文重磅发布，配套细则落地护航 1月7日，国务院办公厅印发《关于促进政府投资基金高质量发展的指导意见》，明确从严控新设基金、优化出资比例及返投政策等关键方向，推 动政府投资基金实现从规模扩张向质量提升的战略转型。为切实落实该文件精神，今年7月，国家发改委面向社会公开征求《政府投资基金布局规 划和投向工作指引》与《加强政府投资基金投向指导评价管理办法》意见：前者聚焦基金投资方向与核心目的，作出系统性规范与引导；后者构 建科学全 ...

12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，重返扩张区间。 12月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.7%，比上月上升1.0个百分点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月扩张。 产需两端明显回升，制造业PMI4月份以来首次升至扩张区间 12月制造业PMI较上月回升0.9个百分点至50.1%，为4月份以来首次升至扩张区间，超出市场预期。 从分项指数看，生产指数（51.7%，比上月上升1.7个百分点）、新订单指数（50.8%，比上月上升1.6个百分点）、供应商配送时间指数（50.2%， 比上月上升0.1个百分点）位于扩张区间，原材料库存指数（47.8%，比上月上升0.5个百分点）、从业人员指数（48.2%，比上月下降0.2个百分 点）位于收缩区间。 从新订单指数和新出口订单指数（49.0%，比上月上升1.4个百分点）看，12月制造业需求明显改善，民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，两项指标 均有强于季节性表现，前期稳增长政策继续落地显效以及外部不确 ...

Core Insights - The recent issuance of special bonds into government investment funds reflects an optimization of mid-term fiscal planning, supporting major development strategies and fostering new economic growth drivers [1][2] Group 1: Accelerated Issuance of Special Bonds - Multiple regions have accelerated the issuance of special bonds directed towards government investment funds, with Guangdong issuing 10 billion yuan, Sichuan 5 billion yuan, and Shanghai 5 billion yuan among others [1] - A total of 11 regions have disclosed the use of special bond funds for government investment funds this year, with a total scale exceeding 80 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Support for Industry Development - The injection of special bond funds into government investment funds is a significant measure to support industrial development and technological innovation, with a focus on regional industrial characteristics [2][3] - For instance, Shenzhen's government investment fund targets the "20+8" industrial clusters, while Xi'an's fund focuses on local advantageous industries such as electronics and aerospace [2] Group 3: Regional Distribution and Characteristics - The regional distribution of special bond funds shows a clear differentiation, with eastern regions like Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai disclosing substantial amounts, each reaching 10 billion yuan [3] - Eastern regions emphasize technological innovation and strategic emerging industries, while central and western regions focus on industrial transformation and unique industry cultivation [3] Group 4: Issuance Timeline and Mechanism - The issuance period for special bonds directed towards government investment funds typically ranges from 10 to 30 years, aligning with long-term equity investment needs [3] - The recent acceleration in local special bond issuance, with a total of 492.19 billion yuan in November alone, indicates a significant increase of 71% month-on-month [4] Group 5: Risk Management and Systematic Framework - Experts highlight the need for a scientific and reasonable institutional framework to prevent potential debt risks arising from the differences in objectives and management between special bonds and government investment funds [4] - Recommendations include establishing a "special bond + government investment fund" linkage mechanism, enhancing transparency, and implementing performance evaluations throughout the project lifecycle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - environment in the fourth quarter is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: US "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" online sales reached record highs, but consumers preferred daily necessities and more people borrowed short - term debt for shopping. The weak demand dragged down the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December to ease liquidity constraints [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, policy - based financial instruments and special bonds promoted the significant recovery of enterprise investment and recruitment forward - looking indicators. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [6]. 3.2 Asset Views - The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to maintain long - position opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume cannot support an upward attack, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is somewhat differentiated. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, and precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policies, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to policy - level dynamics [7]. - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the price on the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, iron - water production, and other factors [7]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and there is limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel tendering [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The cost transfer is not smooth, and inventory accumulates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to cost prices and foreign quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply needs to be reduced. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and there is still an oversupply. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The expectation of Fed rate cuts is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and the alumina price continues to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may gradually stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: There are environmental disturbances in Indonesian MHP production enterprises, and the nickel price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rebound of the nickel price, the stainless - steel futures market has recovered. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has warmed up, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations, the lithium price has strengthened again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The import cost has rebounded, and the spot support continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is recovering towards the spot price after an oversold situation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The expected coastal unloading is high, and the inland supply - demand provides phased support. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to enterprise inventory de - stocking and commercial storage progress [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but expectations are suppressing sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and device disturbances [9]. - **PX**: The short - term cost guidance is limited, and PX has a strong profit under its independent logic. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and US - Asia aromatics blending for oil [9]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers and follows cost fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and downstream polyester load support [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the off - season demand cannot change the short - fiber game pattern. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream yarn factory purchasing rhythm and season conversion [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and new device commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: The oil price has rebounded, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and styrene is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, PVC is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The downward pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The discount of South American soybeans is cost - effective, and attention should be paid to Chinese ship - buying. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand is loose, and the pig price is running weakly. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream buying is light, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is insufficient bullish driving force in the futures market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The concentrated listing of new cotton suppresses the short - term price, but the long - term valuation repair is still expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by shutdown news, the pulp price continues to rise but maintains a wide - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [9]. - **Log**: New Zealand has entered a reduced - shipping stage, and the medium - term supply pressure may ease. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to shipping volume and delivery volume [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of local governments in China issuing special bonds to inject capital into government investment guidance funds, aiming to enhance funding efficiency and stimulate market liquidity, particularly in the technology innovation sector [4][6][12]. Group 1: Special Bonds and Government Investment Guidance Funds - Multiple regions, including Guangdong, Sichuan, and Shanghai, are set to issue a total of 200 billion yuan in special bonds, with Shenzhen recently issuing 65.2 billion yuan, primarily directed towards government investment guidance funds [5][6]. - The total scale of special bonds directed towards government investment guidance funds has exceeded 800 billion yuan, indicating a significant shift in funding strategy [5][6]. - The issuance period for these special bonds ranges from 10 to 30 years, with a focus on technology innovation as the primary investment area [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Implications - The policy shift allowing special bonds to be used for government investment guidance funds marks a significant change from previous regulations that prohibited such practices due to risk management concerns [10][11]. - The change is seen as a response to diminishing returns from traditional infrastructure investments and aims to transition fiscal policy from merely "supplementing projects" to "nurturing industries" [12][11]. - The government investment guidance funds are designed to leverage public funds to attract more social capital into strategic sectors, enhancing the efficiency of fund utilization and promoting industrial upgrades and technological innovation [13][12]. Group 3: Focus on Technology and Innovation - Local governments are increasingly directing special bonds towards technology innovation, with specific allocations for sectors such as artificial intelligence, aerospace, and biomedicine [15][18]. - The investment focus has shifted from broad areas to more specialized fields, aligning with China's transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven economic growth [15][16]. - The government investment guidance funds are expected to play a crucial role in addressing early-stage investment gaps in technology and innovation, thereby fostering the development of internationally competitive enterprises [16][19]. Group 4: Regional Strategies and Outcomes - Different regions are adopting tailored strategies based on their unique resources and development stages, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai focusing on advanced research and development capabilities [17][19]. - Shenzhen has established a robust government guidance fund system, with over 150 billion yuan in public funding attracting nearly 500 billion yuan in social capital, demonstrating a significant multiplier effect [18][17]. - The article emphasizes the need for a market-oriented approach and professional participation to enhance risk management and ensure effective use of fiscal resources in government investment guidance funds [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - **Precious Metals**: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - **Agriculture**: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy review for 2025 highlights a balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, with significant fiscal expansion not leading to improved fixed asset investment growth [2][3][32]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Review for 2025 - The budget revenue showed a weak recovery, with a cumulative year-on-year growth turning positive in the first ten months, reaching 85% of the budget execution [5][9]. - Government fund revenue was negatively impacted by declining land transfer income, with a progress rate of 55% in the first ten months [9][12]. - The expenditure side saw a strong increase, with government fund expenditure growth reaching 220% for central government funds, while local expenditure grew by only 7.3% [9][12]. Group 2: Debt Management and Special Bonds - The "6+4+2" debt management plan for 2024 accelerated the debt resolution process, with a total of 3.88 trillion yuan allocated for debt resolution and clearing corporate arrears, exceeding initial expectations [16][20]. - The issuance of special bonds reached 4.4 trillion yuan by mid-November, with a significant portion allocated for debt resolution and land reserve projects, leading to a partial crowding-out effect on infrastructure projects [12][22]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected deficit rate maintained at around 4%, signaling the necessity of fiscal expansion [3][35]. - New special bond quotas may be increased to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects, particularly in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][35]. - The fiscal revenue is anticipated to remain under pressure due to declining land transfer income, which has historically accounted for 70%-80% of government fund revenue [38][39]. Group 4: Expenditure and Economic Growth - The relationship between GDP growth and fiscal expenditure is expected to persist, with government leveraging fiscal expansion to support economic growth amid weak expectations from residents and enterprises [40][45]. - Central government spending is likely to focus on major projects, with local governments continuing to rely heavily on central transfers due to limited self-financing capabilities [45][46].