Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - The construction industry continues to experience a downward trend, with a focus on the government's fiscal efforts in the fourth quarter [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector fell below 50, indicating contraction, primarily due to a decrease in new orders and weakened market demand [6][18]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) has shown a continued decline, influenced by a significant drop in real estate and infrastructure investments [7][21]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - The construction PMI for August was reported at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month, with the new orders index at 40.6%, reflecting a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.1 percentage points month-on-month [6][18]. - Fixed asset investment in August was 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, with manufacturing investment also declining by 1.8% [22][36]. - Infrastructure investment for August was 1.5 trillion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative investment of 12 trillion yuan for the first eight months, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year [23][36]. Physical Workload - August saw a seasonal slowdown in construction activities due to high temperatures, with cement production declining by 6.2% year-on-year [8][50]. - The construction workload is expected to rebound in September as the industry enters its peak season [8][50]. Project Funding - As of September 16, the funding availability rate for construction sites was 59.39%, with non-residential projects at 61.21% and residential projects at 50.58% [58]. - In August, new special bonds issued exceeded 485.6 billion yuan, with a total issuance progress of 80% by September 19 [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bonds remain a weak asset currently. At the end of September, first focus on changes in the funding situation and the equity market, and approach with a cautious mindset. Also, look ahead to the main - line switching process in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the bond market switched to a relatively clear main - line logic each quarter, and the main - line logic weakened at the end of each quarter. The trading main - line in the fourth quarter may switch to institutional behavior changes and interest - rate cut expectations successively, and the yield curve may show a pattern of steepening first and then flattening [17][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Funds Price: Tightening of Quarter - End Funding - From September 19th to September 25th, the central bank made a net open - market injection of nearly 60 billion yuan. On September 22nd, it conducted 30 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. During the statistical period, the overall funds price increased, with the DR007 rising to 1.6%, the R007 rising to 1.8%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield rising to 1.7%, the highest since early June [8] 3.2 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From September 19th to September 25th, 119 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 708.6 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 77.2 billion yuan. On September 19th, 82 billion yuan of 30 - year special treasury bonds were re - issued at a price of 99.67 yuan, with an annual yield of 2.17%, higher than the secondary - market transaction price. The issuance scale of local special bonds increased seasonally at the end of the month. As of September 25th, 1.23 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds had been issued in 2025, with about 70 billion yuan remaining to be issued; 3.66 trillion yuan of new local special bonds had been issued, with about 240 billion yuan remaining to be issued [10][11] 3.3 Secondary Market: Uptick in Yield Curve - From September 19th to September 25th, the treasury bond yield curve rose again, with increased intraday volatility. The main constraint on the bond market during this statistical period came from the news front. The market expected that the redemption fee adjustment for public bond funds was imminent, which led institutions to actively redeem bond funds. Additionally, the stock - bond seesaw effect still existed, and the relatively strong and volatile equity market also dampened bond market sentiment [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The bond market currently has low sensitivity to fundamentals. From an asset - allocation perspective, weak fundamentals imply a low return rate in the real economy. However, in the stage of low bond coupons and capital losses, bond - type assets also struggle to provide higher comprehensive returns, so the bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals has declined [17] - **Policy**: Incremental policies will mainly cover three directions. First, after the release of August economic data, market expectations for pro - growth policies have increased, with promoting consumption and expanding infrastructure likely to be key areas. The real - estate sector may also see partial relaxation. Second, the fund redemption fee adjustment plan will be officially implemented. Third, there is still a high expectation that the central bank will restart open - market bond purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market, which may occur alongside the redemption fee adjustment to smooth out bond market fluctuations. Based on 2024 experience, the central bank mainly buys short - term bonds, so the yield curve is likely to steepen, and caution is needed for long - term bonds [17] - **Funds**: There is still pressure on the cross - quarter funding situation [18]

"为何美国可以通过关税对全球施压？"在近日举办的第九届财经发展论坛上，上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院 顾问刘小川开篇抛出这样一个问题。 刘小川表示，答案不言而喻，因为美国市场是全世界最大的主体市场，消费量大，世界上很多国家都希望和美国 做生意，特朗普抓住这样一个特点，通过关税来对其他国家施压。 据央视新闻，按美国劳动局数据，美国人2023年消费支出是18.8万亿美元，这一数据高于中国，且中美人均消费 相差更大。"当前扩大内需至关重要。如何扩大内需？中国的特点是政策力量强大，因此要实现这一目标，政策将 发挥重要作用，这就包括财政政策、货币政策和贸易政策。"刘小川说。 发挥政策效能，助力扩大内需，思路可谓千头万绪。着眼于民生关注的财政政策，南都N视频记者梳理了论坛现 场业内专家关于财政政策助力扩大内需的聚焦点。 第九届财经发展论坛。 中国人民大学财政金融学院贾俊雪认为，减税降费还有一定空间，需要考虑怎样更精准施策。原来以间接税为 主，现在可以考虑通过直接税（包括企业所得税、个人所得税等）的减免来有效拉动内需。 不过，在中央财经大学财政税务学院教授白彦锋看来，一提到扩大内需，就会想到减税降费，但结合现实情况的 变化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a marginal narrowing of the year-on-year decline in infrastructure investment, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the central and western regions of China [2][3] - From January to August 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, while narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments increased by 2% and 5.4% respectively [2][3] - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment was 19.9%, with narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments declining by 5.9% and 6.4% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The cumulative new special bonds issued from January to August 2025 reached 32,641.37 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [2] - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year to support major engineering projects [2] - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline in sales area of 4.7% from January to August 2025 [3] Group 3 - Cement production from January to August 2025 was 1.105 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% [4] - In August 2025, the average cement price increased to 349 yuan per ton, although it remains 38 yuan lower than the previous year [5] - The report notes that the demand for cement is expected to improve seasonally, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the profitability of cement companies [5] Group 4 - The production of flat glass from January to August 2025 was 64,818 million weight cases, down 4.5% year-on-year [6] - The report indicates that there is a potential for demand improvement in the glass market as inventory levels are being digested [6] - The overall operating rate of the flat glass industry was reported at 82.04% as of the end of August 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown strong performance in August, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points, reaching a ten-year high, and significant trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 13 consecutive trading days [7][12][47] - The report highlights that sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while banking, coal, and steel sectors lagged behind [12][48] - The report suggests that the market has room for further upward movement in September, driven by favorable liquidity conditions and potential policy support from the government [7][43][47] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the financial, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and power equipment sectors for investment in September, recommending an overweight position in these industries [48][49] - The TMT sector is particularly highlighted due to the strong performance of major tech companies, with significant capital expenditures directed towards cloud computing and AI, indicating robust growth potential [53] - The financial sector is noted for its resilience, with insurance companies like Ping An increasing their stakes in other firms, reflecting a positive outlook for long-term value in the insurance industry [49][52]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in the use of special bonds for acquiring idle land across China, with over 4,300 proposed projects and a total area exceeding 220 million square meters, amounting to over 550 billion yuan [1] - Guangdong province leads the nation in issuing special bonds for land acquisition, having issued 37.7 billion yuan, followed by Hunan province with 30.7 billion yuan from five issuances [3] - The majority of the proposed land for acquisition is residential, accounting for approximately 66% of the total, with commercial and industrial land making up 24% and 6% respectively [4] Group 2 - The ownership structure of the proposed land indicates that about 84% belongs to local state-owned enterprises, emphasizing their dominance in the land acquisition process [4] - First and second-tier cities have a significant role in this initiative, with a total of 989 proposed land parcels and a combined acquisition amount exceeding 205 billion yuan, representing 37% of the total [4] - The trend shows that the proportion of residential land has remained high since May, consistently above 70% in July and August, indicating a strong focus on residential development [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the policy trends in multiple fields from August 7th to August 21st, 2025, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. These policies aim to boost consumption, expand investment, support emerging industries, and stabilize the real estate market, among other goals [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic Tone - Personal consumption loan and service industry business loan fiscal subsidy policies were implemented. The subsidy ratio is 1 percentage point, and the central and provincial finances bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds respectively. The policies will be evaluated upon expiration [11][14][15]. - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized cultivating and expanding service consumption and increasing effective investment [12][15]. - 188 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal investment subsidies were fully allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [13][15]. 2. Fiscal Policy - Special bonds can be used for government expenditures in the construction costs of PPP stock projects. Local governments are required to manage and use funds properly to ensure the stable operation of PPP projects [16][19]. - A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is expected to be launched, potentially focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [17]. - The implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law were open for public consultation, clarifying relevant scope and rules [18][19]. 3. Monetary Policy - In August, the central bank conducted repurchase operations, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan, showing its care for the market [20][22]. - The central bank continued the overall tone of "implementing and refining" and remained committed to preventing capital idling. The probability of a policy interest rate cut is relatively low in the short term [20][21][22]. - Financial institutions should focus on exploring effective credit demand rather than being overly concerned about monthly credit increment fluctuations [21][22]. 4. Financial Supervision - Regarding banks, regulators addressed "involution - style" competition, residents' deposits flowed into the market, a draft for public comment on the management measures for commercial bank merger and acquisition loans was released, and many small and medium - sized banks lowered deposit interest rates [22][23][26]. - For insurance, three new scenarios for claiming personal pensions were added [24][28]. - The trading association launched a self - regulatory investigation into institutions involved in the illegal use of raised funds in bond financing [25][28]. 5. Real Estate Policy - The policy aims to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, improve the basic real - estate financial system, and release improvement - oriented housing demand [29][31][32]. - Beijing lifted the purchase restrictions on commercial housing outside the Fifth Ring Road [29][32]. - Hainan Province introduced real - estate regulatory policies, allowing for appropriate relaxation of the acquisition area standard when purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing [30][31][32]. 6. Tariff Policy - The suspension of the 24% additional tariff on US imports was extended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff was retained [33][34]. - Trump stated that there is currently no plan to impose additional tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, but this might be reconsidered in two or three weeks [33][34].

Group 1 - Major projects are crucial for economic development and high-quality growth, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported significant progress on the 102 major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with all targets expected to be met by the end of the year [1] - A total of 800 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support 1,459 projects by 2025, focusing on key areas such as ecological restoration and major transportation infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Continuous funding is necessary for major project construction, with expectations to increase funding supply next year, potentially raising special long-term bond issuance to over 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - Funding will be provided through various channels, including increased issuance of special long-term bonds, fiscal budget spending, and new policy financial tools to attract more social capital for project construction [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total revenue growth rate for the fiscal accounts was 0%, improving from -0.6% in the previous period[2] - The total expenditure growth rate was 9.3%, up from 8.9%, marking the highest level since September 2022[2] - Tax revenue showed a recovery with a monthly growth rate of 5%, compared to 1% in the previous month, while non-tax revenue fell to 2% from 3.7%[5] Group 2: Key Revenue Components - Stamp duty revenue increased significantly by 20.7%, with securities transaction stamp duty surging by 62.5%[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a 71% increase year-on-year[15] - Land transfer revenue in July was 267.9 billion yuan, down from 299 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.6%[18] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - The cumulative expenditure growth rate for the first seven months was 3.4%, with a monthly growth rate of 3%[21] - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 31.7% for the second fiscal account, reaching 42.4% in July[22] - The total issuance of special local government bonds was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 63.1%[22] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, policy implementation, and a significant downturn in the real estate market[26] - The sustainability of revenue growth is uncertain, particularly if budgetary income weakens alongside declining land revenue, which may lead to increased national debt issuance in Q4 2023[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that special bonds are crucial for driving effective investment, with a cumulative issuance of 11.35 trillion yuan since the 20th National Congress, supporting around 90,000 projects in areas like infrastructure and public welfare [1] - As of August 2, 2023, local governments have issued a total of 21,710.65 billion yuan in new local bonds this year, with special bonds accounting for 17,772.69 billion yuan, representing 45.57% of the annual quota of 39,000 billion yuan [1] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new local bonds has slowed down, with last year's total at 30,504.62 billion yuan, where special bonds made up 25,708.30 billion yuan, or 67.65% of the annual quota of 38,000 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds, focusing on new infrastructure and industries, with allocations favoring regions with well-prepared projects [2] - A recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to speed up the issuance of special bonds and utilize long-term special treasury bonds to support major national strategies and enhance safety capabilities in key areas [2] - It is expected that the issuance of local government bonds will significantly accelerate in the next three months, with an estimated issuance of around 20,000 billion yuan in August and September, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [3]