债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（0807-0821）：财政贴息政策落 地，政策性工具有望推出 ❖ 宏观基调：财政贴息政策落地，年内设备更新资金下达完毕 （1）财政贴息：《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策实施方案》出台，以提振消费需求，两顶政策到期后将开展效果 评估，研究视情延长政策的期限。 （2）国常会：国常会上李强总理强调要培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投 资。 （3）设备更新：据发改委，年内 1880 亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资 补助资金下达完毕。 ❖ 财政政策：专项债可用于 PPP 建设成本，"准财政"工具有望推出 （2）货政报告：央行二季度货政执行报告延续"落实落细"总定调，防资金 空转仍有定力。 （3）金融数据：金融时报回应如何更好理解当前金融数据的问题时称在当 前决策层多次提到"破除内卷式竞争"的背景下，金融机构必须看到挖掘 有效信贷需求是银行稳健可持续经营的保障。 ❖ 金融监管：银行并购贷款征求意见稿出台，个人养老金新增三种领取情形 （1）银行：监管整治银行"内卷式"竞争；居民存款搬家，资金加速入市； 商业银行并购贷款管理办法 ...

Group 1 - Major projects are crucial for economic development and high-quality growth, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported significant progress on the 102 major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with all targets expected to be met by the end of the year [1] - A total of 800 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support 1,459 projects by 2025, focusing on key areas such as ecological restoration and major transportation infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Continuous funding is necessary for major project construction, with expectations to increase funding supply next year, potentially raising special long-term bond issuance to over 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - Funding will be provided through various channels, including increased issuance of special long-term bonds, fiscal budget spending, and new policy financial tools to attract more social capital for project construction [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total revenue growth rate for the fiscal accounts was 0%, improving from -0.6% in the previous period[2] - The total expenditure growth rate was 9.3%, up from 8.9%, marking the highest level since September 2022[2] - Tax revenue showed a recovery with a monthly growth rate of 5%, compared to 1% in the previous month, while non-tax revenue fell to 2% from 3.7%[5] Group 2: Key Revenue Components - Stamp duty revenue increased significantly by 20.7%, with securities transaction stamp duty surging by 62.5%[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a 71% increase year-on-year[15] - Land transfer revenue in July was 267.9 billion yuan, down from 299 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.6%[18] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - The cumulative expenditure growth rate for the first seven months was 3.4%, with a monthly growth rate of 3%[21] - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 31.7% for the second fiscal account, reaching 42.4% in July[22] - The total issuance of special local government bonds was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 63.1%[22] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, policy implementation, and a significant downturn in the real estate market[26] - The sustainability of revenue growth is uncertain, particularly if budgetary income weakens alongside declining land revenue, which may lead to increased national debt issuance in Q4 2023[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that special bonds are crucial for driving effective investment, with a cumulative issuance of 11.35 trillion yuan since the 20th National Congress, supporting around 90,000 projects in areas like infrastructure and public welfare [1] - As of August 2, 2023, local governments have issued a total of 21,710.65 billion yuan in new local bonds this year, with special bonds accounting for 17,772.69 billion yuan, representing 45.57% of the annual quota of 39,000 billion yuan [1] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new local bonds has slowed down, with last year's total at 30,504.62 billion yuan, where special bonds made up 25,708.30 billion yuan, or 67.65% of the annual quota of 38,000 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds, focusing on new infrastructure and industries, with allocations favoring regions with well-prepared projects [2] - A recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to speed up the issuance of special bonds and utilize long-term special treasury bonds to support major national strategies and enhance safety capabilities in key areas [2] - It is expected that the issuance of local government bonds will significantly accelerate in the next three months, with an estimated issuance of around 20,000 billion yuan in August and September, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step towards the "investment in people" policy direction, with a current annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child under three years old, potentially reaching a scale of 1188 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2][3][6] - The subsidy reflects a new paradigm of central-local cooperation, with a funding distribution ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, allowing provinces to adjust subsidy standards based on local conditions [4] - The expected gradual increase in birth rates due to the subsidy may lead to a more direct boost in consumption, with an estimated consumption increment of about 780 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Fixed Income and Special Bonds - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated but remains below the average levels of previous years, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49% by the end of June 2025, primarily directed towards debt repayment and real estate [9][10] - The structural changes in project construction indicate a shift towards land acquisition and storage, with significant regional disparities in bond allocation [10][11] - The potential for new infrastructure investments is expected to grow, with traditional infrastructure remaining a key support for economic stability [12][13] Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing increased fund holdings, with a notable rise in military fund allocations, indicating a favorable investment opportunity driven by domestic demand and military trade [23][25] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is expected to serve as a catalyst for the industry, alongside positive earnings expectations from Q2 reports [25] - The long-term outlook for military equipment demand is optimistic, with significant growth potential anticipated as geopolitical tensions rise [25][26] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The "anti-involution" sentiment is gaining traction, leading to a strong rebound in lithium prices, which have increased by 27% recently due to stricter mining approvals and a crackdown on low-price competition [27][30] - The current market dynamics suggest that lithium prices may continue to rise, supported by supply uncertainties and ongoing policy adjustments [30] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant growth, with various metals experiencing price increases [27][28]

Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite external pressures and internal challenges [1][2] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July will assess the current economic situation and outline policies for the second half of the year [1] - Experts anticipate that counter-cyclical adjustment policies will be optimized to enhance employment and economic stability [1][7] Consumer Spending and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for additional funding in October [2][5] - The "old for new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales generated from five categories of consumer goods by mid-2025 [3] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by policies related to "two new" initiatives [3] Employment and Social Policies - The average urban unemployment rate in China was 5.2% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease [7] - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting businesses and enhancing job training [7] - There is a push for policies that enhance social security and healthcare to further support employment and consumer spending [8] Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest expanding subsidy policies to include sectors like tourism and dining to further stimulate consumption [4][5] - The government aims to optimize the "old for new" consumption policy and enhance the overall consumer environment [5][6] - There is a call for a coordinated approach to fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability and growth [8]

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, supported by strong external demand and improving internal demand, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% [2][3] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, and the positive trend continued into the second quarter [2][3] - Key drivers of economic growth include the "old-for-new" consumption policy, large-scale equipment updates, and robust infrastructure investment [3][4] Consumption and Investment - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% year-on-year from January to May [4][5] - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% during the same period, driven by strong service sector investment and equipment upgrades [4][6] - Exports grew by 6% from January to May, supported by "grabbing exports" and "turning exports" strategies [4][6] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy remained flexible and moderately loose, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - Fiscal policy showed a high intensity and rapid pace, with government debt net financing increasing by 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year from January to May [9][10] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds accelerated, with nearly 2.2 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued by the end of June [9][10] Future Outlook - In the second half of the year, there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [16][20] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, focusing on technology innovation and digital economy sectors [16][17] - The government plans to dynamically adjust budgets and expand fiscal spending to counter global trade uncertainties and support employment [17][20]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the significant issuance of local government bonds in China, amounting to 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at "debt replacement" and supporting infrastructure investment [1][2] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of about 90%, while new special bonds issued amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the annual quota [1][2] - The urgency of "debt replacement" is highlighted as the primary task for local governments, with 42% of new special bonds in June allocated for this purpose, reflecting the pressing need to address existing debt issues [3][4] Group 2 - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with plans for approximately 1.69 trillion yuan in new bonds, including 1.47 trillion yuan in new special bonds [6] - The focus on "debt replacement" has somewhat constrained the issuance of new local government bonds, impacting project initiation [6][7] - The government is also exploring innovative uses of special bonds, such as funding investment guidance funds to support strategic emerging industries [7]

Group 1: Special Bonds and Economic Support - In the first half of the year, the issuance of special bonds increased by approximately 44.7% year-on-year, reaching about 21,607 billion yuan compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds this year, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [1] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a strong fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector in the US - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month, with new orders index dropping to 46.4 [3] - The Markit Manufacturing PMI showed a contrasting figure of 52.9, suggesting a recovery in domestic manufacturing, particularly among small and medium enterprises [4] - The divergence between ISM and Markit PMIs reflects a stronger domestic demand while external demand remains weak, influenced by uncertainties in US tariff policies [3][4] Group 3: Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale Initiative - Taobao Flash Sale announced a substantial subsidy plan of 500 billion yuan to enhance consumer engagement and support merchants through various financial incentives [5] - The initiative aims to reshape user perception of the Taobao app and significantly boost order volume, which has already surpassed 60 million daily orders since its launch [6] - This aggressive subsidy strategy indicates Alibaba's commitment to the local lifestyle sector and its willingness to invest heavily in customer and merchant benefits [6] Group 4: Automation and AI in Banking - Bank of New York Mellon has deployed dozens of AI-driven "digital employees" to work alongside human staff, marking a significant step towards automation in the banking sector [7] - Goldman Sachs has introduced AI assistants to its workforce, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and user experience [7] - The trend of integrating AI into banking operations suggests a shift towards more automated processes, potentially reducing the need for human labor in certain tasks [8] Group 5: Amazon's Robotics Expansion - Amazon has reached a milestone of 1 million robots in its global operations, significantly automating its logistics and warehouse processes [9] - The company employs approximately 1.56 million people, with a substantial portion working in warehouses, indicating a growing reliance on robotic assistance [9] - The ongoing automation efforts may lead to a reduction in low-skilled jobs, as robots increasingly take over repetitive tasks [10] Group 6: Regulatory Changes in Precious Metals Transactions - The People's Bank of China has implemented new regulations requiring cash transactions over 100,000 yuan in precious metals to be reported, enhancing transparency in the market [11][12] - This regulation aims to mitigate risks associated with money laundering and illegal fund flows, particularly in the gold market [13] - The impact on the normal gold investment market is expected to be minimal, although it may restrict the movement of unaccounted assets overseas [13] Group 7: Fund Performance in the Market - In the first half of the year, 87.1% of public funds reported positive returns, with 44 funds achieving returns over 50% [14] - The performance of equity funds has been driven by structural market trends, particularly in the innovation and North Exchange sectors [14][15] - Despite the overall positive performance, many investors remain cautious due to previous losses, affecting their enthusiasm for new fund subscriptions [15] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.09%, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [16] - Traditional sectors such as steel and renewable energy showed signs of recovery, while technology and defense stocks faced corrections [16][17] - The market's focus appears to be shifting towards traditional industries and potential recovery stories rather than new narratives [17]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment compared to the previous value of 49.5%[1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased slightly to 50.1%[1] - The new orders index entered the expansion zone at 50.2%, reflecting the effectiveness of domestic demand policies[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The production index increased to 51% from 50.7%, showing strong production momentum[2] - The purchasing quantity index surged by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating increased procurement activity[3] - The employment indices for manufacturing and services fell to 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively, highlighting employment pressures[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index rose by 1.5 percentage points to 46.2%, while the raw material purchase price index increased to 48.4%[2] - The raw material inventory index rose to 48%, and finished goods inventory decreased to 48.1%[3] - The Brent crude oil price peaked at $80.46 per barrel, contributing to a 4.96% year-on-year increase in the CRB index[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The construction sector showed significant recovery, with the index rising to 52.8%, driven by new orders and business activity[5] - Small enterprises recorded a decline in sentiment, with their index dropping to 47.3% from 49.3%[5] - The overall economic resilience is supported by the combination of tariff pauses and proactive policies, with the second quarter showing better performance than the previous year[6]