记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 1月26日下午，国航、东航、南航集体发布公告：1月26日前出票，航班起飞日期在2026年3月29日 （含）至2026年10月24日（含），涉及日本进港、出港或经停航班可免费退改。三大航带了头，预计其 他中国航司都会跟进该政策。 这意味着，日本航线今年都将是收缩状态，春节之后，清明、五一、暑假、中秋、国庆等假期，日本旅 游市场仍将错失大量中国游客。 相关数据显示，2025年，中国内地赴日游客数量达909万人次，较2024年的698万人次增长30%。不过这 么高的旅游基数是2025年前十个月创造的，这期间中国内地赴日游客量每月平均都在80万人以上，但 2025年11月、12月，中国内地赴日游客量降至56万、33万人次，降幅明显。 据悉，自去年11月15日以来，中国航司已经取消大量赴日航班，根据航班管家DAST数据，2026年1月 中国大陆赴日本航班取消率达47.2%较2025年12月增长7.8个百分点。截至1月26日，2026年2月已有49条 航线取消全部航班。 | 航线 | 赴日已取消 | 医療治症日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 北京大兴-关西 | 113 | 1 ...

Core Insights - Thailand has regained its position as the top outbound destination for Chinese travelers during the 2026 Spring Festival travel period, while Japan's routes have seen a significant decline, dropping over 40% year-on-year [1] Flight Cancellations - As of January 15, a total of 2,376 flights from mainland China to Japan have been canceled during the Spring Festival, resulting in an overall cancellation rate of 36% [1] - Shanghai Pudong Airport is the primary airport for flights to Japan, accounting for nearly 50% of the total flights, with over 1,200 outbound flights canceled [1] - Among the top 10 airports, Nanjing Lukou, Beijing Daxing, and Tianjin Binhai airports have experienced higher cancellation rates for flights to Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines are set to reduce flights to Japan due to a decline in demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, impacting the travel industry significantly [2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The reduction in flights is expected to lead to a decrease in passenger traffic between China and Japan, which could affect the overall revenue of airlines operating in this route [2]. - The travel restrictions and changing consumer behavior are likely to result in a shift in market dynamics, with airlines needing to adapt their strategies to maintain profitability [2]. Group 2: Company Responses - Airlines are likely to reassess their capacity and route planning in response to the reduced demand for flights to Japan, potentially reallocating resources to more profitable routes [2]. - Companies may also explore partnerships or alternative markets to mitigate the impact of reduced flights to Japan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant reduction in flights from China to Japan, with 12 routes canceling all flights and an overall increase in cancellation rates, indicating a decline in travel demand to Japan [3][4][5]. Flight Cancellations - As of November 24, 2025, 12 routes from China to Japan have canceled all flights, with a 100% cancellation rate for each of these routes [5]. - Major airlines are reducing their flight schedules, with Air China cutting its Shanghai to Osaka route from 21 to 16 flights per week, and Eastern Airlines canceling 6 out of 14 flights on its Beijing to Osaka route [6][9]. - The cancellation rate for planned flights to Japan is projected to reach 21.6% by November 27, marking the highest rate in a month [6]. Booking Trends - Following the announcement of a free cancellation policy for flights to Japan on November 15, there has been a 29% decrease in ticket bookings for the next 60 days compared to the period before the announcement [9]. - Data indicates that over 543,000 flight orders have been canceled since November 15, reflecting a significant drop in demand for travel to Japan [9]. Impact on Tourism - The decline in Chinese tourists is putting pressure on Japanese tourism operators, with reports of canceled group tours during what is typically a busy season [10]. - Tour guides and hotel operators in Japan are expressing concerns about the potential long-term impact of reduced travel demand, fearing a return to the low activity levels experienced during the pandemic [10].

Group 1 - The recent travel warnings from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese consulates in Japan have led to a surge in cancellations of flights, hotels, and tour packages for trips to Japan [1][2] - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have implemented special ticket handling policies for flights to Japan, with over ten airlines following suit to allow free cancellations and changes [1] - Sichuan Airlines has canceled its flight plans from Chengdu to Sapporo for the period from January 1, 2026, to March 28, 2026, while Spring Airlines has also canceled multiple flights to Japan [1] Group 2 - Travelers are sharing their experiences of successfully canceling hotel bookings in Japan on social media, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [2] - Online travel agencies (OTAs) are adjusting their business strategies, with some no longer accepting orders for popular routes to Japan that typically see high demand during this time of year [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has issued multiple warnings to citizens regarding travel to Japan, leading to a significant increase in ticket cancellations and hotel refunds [1] - Major airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, have announced special handling policies for tickets to Japan, allowing for fee-free changes or full refunds for eligible tickets [3] - Several airlines have already canceled flights to Japan, with specific routes being affected, including those from Chengdu to Sapporo [3] Group 2 - Travel agencies have frozen tours to Japan and are no longer accepting new bookings, reflecting a broader trend of cancellations in the travel sector [5] - Online travel agencies (OTAs) have reported a halt in accepting orders for popular autumn travel routes in Japan, indicating a shift in consumer interest [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines has recently canceled multiple direct flights to Japan due to intense competition in the market, leading to a significant adjustment in capacity and a strategic decision to prioritize profitability over maintaining certain routes [1][10][13]. Flight Cancellations - Several flights from Shanghai Pudong to Osaka (CZ8389, CZ8390), Shenzhen to Osaka (CZ8425, CZ8426), and Guangzhou to Nagoya (CZ6055, CZ6056) have been canceled, primarily affecting dates in August and September [3][4]. - Customers received cancellation notifications but were not informed of the reasons behind the cancellations, leading to confusion and inconvenience [3][8]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape includes Eastern Airlines dominating the Shanghai route with more flights and higher customer loyalty, while Hong Kong's lower prices and greater flight availability are diverting passengers from Southern Airlines [10][11]. - Data indicates that Eastern Airlines accounted for 19.6% of the planned flights on the Japan routes during the summer travel season, while Southern Airlines only held a 9.9% share [10]. Pricing Dynamics - Flight prices from Hong Kong to Osaka are significantly lower than those from Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with the lowest fares from Hong Kong around 588 yuan, compared to Shenzhen's minimum of 1099 yuan and Guangzhou's 800 yuan [11][13]. - Promotional activities by foreign airlines, such as "buy one get one free" offers, have further intensified market competition [13]. Capacity Adjustment - Southern Airlines has reduced its flight frequency on certain routes, canceling over 20 round trips weekly while still maintaining nearly 130 round trips, which represents a 55% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - The airline is reallocating its capacity to more profitable domestic routes in response to the competitive pressures and lower demand for Japan flights [13].