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新氧科技(SY):乘轻医美东风,有望成为连锁龙头
Haitong Securities International· 2025-07-24 09:30
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for the company, with a target price of $10.10, compared to the current price of $5.87 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the burgeoning light medical aesthetics industry in China, benefiting from increasing consumer demand for beauty and anti-aging solutions, a diverse range of upstream products, and improving industry standards and transparency [4][5]. - Despite a significant stock price increase of 487% since mid-June, the company is expected to continue its upward trajectory due to rapid expansion and substantial growth potential [4][6]. Company Overview - The company, So-Young (SY US), is a leading medical aesthetics service group in China and the first online medical aesthetics service platform listed on NASDAQ, established in 2013 [10]. - As of January 2024, the platform has onboarded 57,464 certified institutions and 43,771 physicians, with over 630 million beauty diaries and 210 million downloads [10][11]. Market Overview - The light medical aesthetics market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3%, reaching RMB 339 billion by 2030, driven by increased consumer awareness and a diverse product supply [5][32]. - The market remains highly fragmented, with a significant opportunity for chain institutions to increase their penetration due to the standardized nature of light medical aesthetics projects [5][41]. Competitive Advantages - The company aims to address industry pain points such as information asymmetry and high customer acquisition costs through its supply chain advantages and digital marketing capabilities [6][47]. - The rapid expansion of the company's clinics, from 1 in May 2023 to 32 by mid-2025, showcases its strong execution capabilities and ambition to reach 1,000 clinics in the next 7-8 years [6][58]. Financial Analysis and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.47 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.68 billion in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit expected in 2026 [3][4]. - The company’s traditional POP business is expected to stabilize, contributing positive cash flow, while the medical aesthetics segment is anticipated to become a new growth driver [7][12]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, assigning different P/E ratios to various business segments, resulting in a target price of $10.10 [7][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through its cost-effective operations and strong digital capabilities, with a projected net profit margin improvement to 20% in the future [7][78].