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碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比减少-20250528
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased month-on-month. The price of lithium carbonate futures and related lithium products shows certain fluctuations. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level near 53,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level near 66,000 - 70,000 [1][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - On May 27, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 60,900 yuan/ton, 60,920 yuan/ton, 61,260 yuan/ton, and 61,260 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 392,469 lots, and the open interest was 293,695 lots. The inventory was 34,154 tons, a decrease of 825 tons compared with the previous day [1] - The price differences between different contracts and the basis also showed corresponding changes. For example, the difference between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Prices - The average prices of various lithium products such as lithium ore, metal lithium, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 686 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day [1] - The price differences between different types of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 2,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed a decrease. The total inventory was 131,779 tons, a decrease of 141 tons compared with the previous week [1] Company News - Dazhong Mining, a domestic mining enterprise, entered the lithium industry in 2022. Its Hunan lithium mine project has made rapid progress, with a proven reserve of 3.044 million tons in December 2024 [1] - Sijie Co., Ltd. released new sulfide products at the 2002 China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference. It has built a pilot production line for high - purity lithium sulfide, and its sulfide solid - state electrolyte technology is at the leading level in the industry. It has also reached a procurement framework agreement with Beijing Weilan New Energy [2] - Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project achieved full - process connectivity, and the first batch of lithium hydroxide products met the design standards [2] - Rio Tinto and the Chilean National Mining Company announced a binding agreement to jointly develop and operate the Maricunga Salt Lake project in Chile [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The total production capacity of Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 652,000 - ton wet - process project may reach 240,000 tons per year after it is put into production in October 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate in May may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some new production capacities such as Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate and Jiejin Lithium's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate are planned to be put into production in the future [4] - Demand: The production volume of various lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and lithium - ion batteries in China may increase month - on - month in May. The production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells and power cells may also increase [5][6]