山东路桥 20250902 摘要 山东路桥作为山东省地方龙头建筑公司，在行业整体下滑趋势中，营收 和利润逆势增长，显示出其稳固的区域地位。 公司估值处于历史低位，市盈率仅 4 倍多，远低于建筑央企和多数地方 国企，股息率约为 3.5%，未来提升空间大。 在国内订单承压背景下，山东路桥海外新签订单高速增长，2025 年上 半年已超 2024 年全年同期水平，受益于"一带一路"战略。 公司转债规模约 40 亿元，有强烈的促转股意愿。经营现金流改善后， 分红能力有望提升，目前分红率远低于同类企业，提升空间显著。 2016 年至 2024 年，公司营收和归母净利润年化复合增速分别达到 31.2%和 23.5%，2025 年上半年业绩表现优于行业整体水平。 截至 2025 年中期，公司在手订单约 1,082 亿元，是 2024 年收入的 1.5 倍，为未来业绩增长提供保障。山东省未来高速公路发展空间仍然 很大。 公司主要业主为政府机构、城投平台及地方国企，占比超 90%。受益于 化债政策，现金流有望持续改善，利润空间有望提升。 Q&A 山东路桥作为重点推荐标的，主要有哪些优势？ 山东路桥具备以下四个方面的优势： 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing slight year-on-year growth, while new orders significantly increased, indicating a positive outlook for future operations [1][4]. Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 28.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.029 billion yuan, up 0.89% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 18.811 billion yuan, down 0.59% year-on-year but up 92.65% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 779 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 212.51% [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 11.48% [2]. Order and Business Development - New orders signed in H1 2025 totaled 49.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, continuing the high growth trend from Q1 [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its "going urban and going overseas" strategy, with domestic urban projects accounting for approximately 48.54% of new orders and overseas projects seeing a significant increase in bids [4]. Cash Flow and Cost Management - The net operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -1.723 billion yuan, a reduction in outflow by 874 million yuan year-on-year, with cash collection and payment ratios at 78.1% and 76.6%, respectively [3]. - The expense ratio for H1 2025 was 5.25%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses down 22.22% due to reduced interest payments [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.357 billion, 2.398 billion, and 2.456 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 9.06 yuan based on a PE ratio of 6.0 [5].