进一步侵害了实体部门的自由现金流使得现金流量表受到损害这是第一点第二点是资产负债表也受损了那么过去几年房价大跌导致那个居民和企业部门资产负债表的资产端都出现了非常明显的缩水 侵蚀了资产负债表的资产端而这种2到20年实体部门现金流量表和资产负债表同时受损这就是阶段性中国繁荣的耿主那么这种耿主现在正在得到修复那这种修复的序章主要体现在一方面是美联储重启降息跨境资本家属回流能够修复现金流量表那我们在 四季度以及年度策略展望攻守疫情当中就明确提示2020年开始中国对外出口规模中枢整体上台阶那么人民币汇率本应该从2020年开始就进入中长期的升值周期但是22到20年美联储加息跟住了人民币汇率升值的进程反而导致人民币汇率贬值而当前美联储已经不再加息了 人民币汇率升值的本主也已经cancel掉了那么这也就意味着人民币汇率会重新回归到2020年开始的中长期的升值趋势而美联储降息人民币汇率升值它会扭转跨年资本及国民财富外流的趋势那这能够非常显著的修复实体部门包括企业包括居民部门的信息流量表 那这是现金流量表修复的序章但真正中国走向繁荣破局的关键是美联储在明年QE能够打开国内化债政策空间修复中国实体部门的资产负债表那为什么这么说 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 城投债，化债政策尾声的守与变 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之五 [Table_Summary] ►2025，低波与长短分化的存量时代 2025 年新增化债政策明显减少，主要是将此前的化债政策进一步落实落 细，围绕退重点省份及退平台、"化存遏增"继续发力。城投发债政策 进一步收紧，城投债净融资创历史新低，2025 年 1-11 月仅为 4 亿元。从 内部结构看，低层级和中低等级主体净偿还体量较大。分区域看，江 苏、湖南、重庆净偿还规模在 300 亿元以上。在此背景下，城投债发行 利率震荡下行，7 月创历史新低。除贵州外，其余省份城投债平均发行利 率 2%-2.8%，大部分省份较年初下降。 从二级市场看，2025年城投债收益率震荡，走势基本跟随债市。与2024 年城投债收益率趋势下行行情明显不同，2025 年城投债收益率走势呈现 "M"型，信用利差震荡收窄。因而 2025 年也成为城投债静态收益率最低 和波动最窄的一年，横向比较来看，中短端波动收窄明显，城投债期限 ...

1、《 2026 年 CPI 和 PPI 展望 ——"猪油"共振的可能性推 演》2025-11-28 2、《辨析中国长债利率决定中 的国际因素》2025-11-25 3、《SWIFT+区块链：打造跨 境支付新生态——数字金融系 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 列之一》2025-11-08 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 2025 年财政政策执行情况回顾 风险提示：政策节奏有变化；政策落实效果不及预期。 专题报告 相关报告 2025 年是广义财政预算支出重回扩张周期的关键节点：财政预算进行了 多项重要调整，在降低财政收入目标的同时，最大幅度增加财政资源。广 义财政预算赤字率首次突破 2020 年的历史高点，广义财政支出占 GDP 的 比例自 2020 年以来首次出现回升。 民生领域财政支出力度明显加大：在 2025 年财政预算草案中，主要民生 领域支出在总支出中的占比仅较去年略有提升，整体或不及 2022-2023 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puxin Co., San Ke Shu, and Wei Xing New Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Bei Xin Materials [8]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with a focus on the impact of government policies to stimulate growth. The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the importance of monitoring the government's debt management strategies [1][2]. - The cement market is characterized by a slight increase in prices and production, but overall demand remains weak, particularly in residential construction. The report suggests that a more robust macroeconomic support is needed for a significant recovery [17][28]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand imbalances, but self-regulated production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some pressure. The report emphasizes the need to watch for price stability in this segment [1][5]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and demand from wind power projects expected to rise. The report indicates a positive outlook for high-end electronic fiberglass products [6][7]. - Consumer building materials are benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong market share potential [1][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, the national cement price index is 352.47 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.77%. Cement output reached 2.971 million tons, up 0.2% from the previous week [17]. - The utilization rate of cement clinker production lines is 39.65%, reflecting a 1.21 percentage point increase week-on-week. However, the overall demand remains in a year-on-year contraction phase [17][28]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of December 4, 2025, is 1163.86 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.40%. Inventory levels are high, with a total of 56.75 million weight boxes reported [2][5]. - The report notes that while northern regions are experiencing reduced demand, southern regions are seeing price adjustments as manufacturers attempt to balance supply and demand [5][6]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass remains stable, with limited demand recovery. The report indicates that electronic fiberglass prices have seen a slight increase, suggesting a tightening supply situation [6][7]. Consumer Building Materials Tracking - The demand for consumer building materials continues to show weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices fluctuating. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these price changes for investment decisions [7]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production increasing by 25.83% week-on-week. However, the report indicates that profitability remains under pressure due to high production costs [7].

Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The economic growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, emphasizing the shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the areas of livelihood and consumption[2][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a per capita GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually, with a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% during this period[8]. Fiscal Policy and Budget - The general public budget deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be 4.2%, with a deficit scale of 6.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 520 billion yuan from 2025[3][15]. - In a more optimistic scenario, the deficit rate could rise to 4.5%, with a total deficit of 6.62 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 960 billion yuan[16]. Social Welfare and Consumer Support - Fiscal spending on child-rearing subsidies is expected to be between 100 billion to 120 billion yuan in 2026, alongside an expansion of free preschool education costing over 50 billion yuan[3][10]. - The increase in urban and rural residents' basic pensions is anticipated to exceed 1,000 billion yuan, with a minimum increase of 50 yuan per person[11]. Investment and Infrastructure - Effective investment will be expanded, focusing on urban renewal and basic public service construction, with an estimated 200 billion yuan allocated for urban renewal projects[4][28]. - The issuance of special bonds for equipment upgrades is expected to remain at 200 billion yuan, supporting the modernization of key industries[5][34]. Debt Management and Corporate Support - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan in 2026, aimed at alleviating debt pressure on local governments[35]. - The new local government special bond limit is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt repayment and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, marking an increase of 1 trillion yuan from 2025[36].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the financial struggles faced by medical testing companies in China, particularly due to increased accounts receivable and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cash flow and profitability [2][4]. Group 1: Legal and Financial Issues - Capbio (300639.SZ) has disclosed a lawsuit regarding overdue payments, with claims amounting to 357 million yuan related to unpaid goods and services from 2020 to 2022 [2]. - A total of seven medical testing companies in the A-share market reported net losses attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of this year, with six of them expected to continue facing losses in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Profitability Decline - Dean Diagnostics (300244.SZ) reported a net profit of 56.70 million yuan for the first three quarters, a decline of 56.67% year-on-year, attributed to price reductions in testing services [4]. - Gold Domain Medical (金域医学) recorded a provision for asset impairment of 345 million yuan, primarily due to accounts receivable impairment losses, significantly impacting its consolidated profit [5]. Group 3: Accounts Receivable Management - Medical testing companies are experiencing longer collection periods from public hospitals, leading to increased credit impairment [7]. - Recent government debt reduction policies have reportedly accelerated the collection of accounts receivable from public hospitals, particularly noted in the third quarter [7]. - Companies like Dean Diagnostics and Puni Testing are implementing stricter accounts receivable management strategies, including tailored collection plans for major clients [8].

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing through the issuance of bonds, with a total of approximately 91,062 billion yuan issued in the first ten months of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 23% [1][5] - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, but has shown a downward trend since July, with October's issuance at approximately 5,600 billion yuan, slightly above January's level [1][4] Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first ten months, about 60% of the funds raised by local governments were used to repay old debts, while around 40% were allocated for major project construction [4][5] - The issuance of new local government bonds totaled approximately 47,000 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, while refinancing bonds reached 44,000 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 58% [5][6] - The refinancing bonds are primarily aimed at repaying maturing government bonds and replacing hidden debts, which helps to optimize the debt structure and alleviate repayment pressure [5][6] Special Bonds and Project Funding - Approximately 12,500 billion yuan of special new bonds were issued, specifically aimed at resolving hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [5][6] - Of the new special bonds issued, about 90% of the annual quota has been utilized, with 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [6][7] Debt Management and Risk Control - The overall risk of local government debt is considered manageable, with the total debt balance as of September 2025 being 536,995 billion yuan, well within the approved limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan [7] - In the first three quarters, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in Q1-Q3 2025, with total revenue of 5.52 trillion, down 5.2% year-on-year, and net profit of 118.9 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue has narrowed, and cash flow has shown significant improvement, attributed to local government debt resolution policies and enhanced cash flow management by companies [2][5]. - The industry’s gross margin remained stable at 9.8%, with a net margin of 2.16%, indicating effective cost control despite external pressures [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of the Construction Industry - In Q1-Q3 2025, major listed companies in the construction sector reported a total revenue of 5.52 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit of 118.9 billion, down 9.0% [3][9]. - Quarterly revenues were 1.84 trillion, 1.91 trillion, and 1.76 trillion, with respective year-on-year declines of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 4.3% [3][9]. 2. ROE Analysis - The overall Return on Equity (ROE) for the industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.36%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [17]. - The decline in ROE is attributed to reduced investment and increased cost pressures, impacting profitability [17][28]. 3. Cash Flow Improvement - The industry’s operating cash flow showed improvement, with a net outflow of 404.7 billion, which is 70.7 billion less than the previous year [4][14]. - The cash collection ratio improved to 103%, 87%, and 108% across the three quarters, indicating better cash management [4][14]. 4. Investment and Profitability Trends - The construction sector is experiencing a shift towards cash management and asset quality improvement, with companies focusing on reducing ineffective assets [5][26]. - Investment net income in Q3 2025 decreased by 39.4 billion year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the sector [26]. 5. Market Perception and Opportunities - The report suggests that the market underestimates the potential for investment in the construction and real estate sectors, which remain crucial to the economy [6]. - The emphasis on quality over growth by state-owned enterprises is expected to create new opportunities for sustainable growth [6].

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a total issuance of approximately 91,062 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in issuance from July onwards, culminating in approximately 5,600 billion yuan in October, slightly above January's issuance [3][5]. - Of the 91,062 billion yuan borrowed, around 60% was allocated to repay old debts, while approximately 40% was directed towards major project construction [5][7]. - The new local government bonds issued included about 47,000 billion yuan in new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 44,000 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year), primarily aimed at repaying existing debts [5][7]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Funding - A total of approximately 12,500 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, specifically for resolving local government hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises, indicating a focus on debt repayment [7][8]. - The majority of new special bonds were utilized for significant public projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [8]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - As of September 2025, the total local government debt stood at 536,995 billion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are generally manageable [9]. - In the first three quarters of the year, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds, demonstrating the ability to meet debt obligations [9].