业绩大超预期，坚定看好算力！20250720 摘要 中际旭创二季度净利润约 24 亿元，同比增长 75%，环比增长 53%，远 超预期。天孚通信业绩也有望优于市场预期，表明通信行业景气度超预 期。 受益于 AI 应用和算力需求增长，对三季度、四季度及明年（2026 年） 的业绩预期更加乐观。Meta 和 OpenAI 加大算力投资，海外建设投入 巨大，将进一步推动相关公司发展。 新易盛 2026 年业绩预期接近 150 亿元，对应估值约 12 倍；中微股份 2026 年利润预期在 150 亿至 200 亿之间，对应估值约 11 倍，估值相 对较低，具备上升空间。 除龙头公司外，跳线、芯片供应等后周期环节也值得关注，如长兴博创、 仕佳光子、太辰光、联杰科技等。上游供应商如东田威、长城华西，以 及国产电如光迅科技、华工科技等也有机会。 国内光模块厂商如华工光迅、锐捷等二季度业绩表现突出，国内厂商建 设进度及配套硬件需求旺盛。IDC 公司上修预期，数据中心上架进度快， 大客户项目进展顺利。 Q&A 近期通信行业的核心龙头公司发布了业绩预告，整体表现如何？ 在过去一周内，通信行业的核心龙头公司发布了业绩预告，整体表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shijia Photon plans to acquire 82.38% equity of Dongguan Fokexima Communication Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, while also raising matching funds [5][10]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will make Fokexima a subsidiary of Shijia Photon, and the transaction is expected to constitute a related party transaction but not a major asset restructuring [7][10]. - The company aims to enhance its production capabilities for MT connectors, ensuring stable supply and reducing overall product costs [10][15]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2024, Fokexima reported total assets of 249 million yuan and projected revenue of 270 million yuan with a net profit of approximately 80 million yuan for the year [12][13]. - The financial data shows a significant increase in total assets from 113.64 million yuan in 2023 to 248.79 million yuan in Q1 2025 [13]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to internalize MT connector production capacity, integrate the supply chain, and build technological barriers [15]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance product structure, technical accumulation, and market expansion, ultimately improving competitiveness in the optical communication sector [11][15].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7% to 3497 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.39% [1] - The total trading volume for the day reached 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 247.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 4300 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept stocks surged in the afternoon, with "Yizhongtian" leading the gains; Tianfu Communication rose over 12%, Zhongji Xuchuang rose over 7%, and Xinyi Sheng rose over 6.7% [2] - The photovoltaic glass sector saw a rise of 5.76%, while other related sectors such as photovoltaic inverters and circuit boards also experienced gains [2] AI ETF Performance - The ChiNext AI ETFs from Guotai, Huaxia, Huabao, and Nanfang all rose over 3%, with Guotai's ETF increasing by 3.78% [3][4] - The largest ChiNext AI ETF by size is Huabao's, with a latest scale of 1.545 billion yuan [5] Company Updates - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [5] - The company reported that its cloud computing business grew rapidly, with overall revenue in the segment increasing by over 50% year-on-year, and AI server revenue increasing by over 60% [5] Technology Developments - Citigroup noted that NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 chip has become a core power source for AI clusters, with deployment accelerating [6] - The upcoming CPO switches are expected to open three new incremental spaces, with significant value from high-density MPO connectors [6] Industry Trends - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the upcoming NVIDIA GB300 chip is expected to drive industry chain resonance, with revenue opportunities increasing by 50 times compared to previous generations [7] - Oracle's cloud service contracts are anticipated to catalyze demand for computing power, with expectations of over 30% year-on-year capital expenditure growth from major cloud providers [7] - The AI-driven evolution of data center architecture is expected to benefit optical modules and devices, with optimistic demand forecasts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the planned acquisition of Dongguan Fokexima Communication Technology Co., Ltd. by Henan Shijia Photon Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, indicating potential growth in the optical communication sector driven by increasing demand for high-speed data transmission [1][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Henan Shijia plans to acquire a controlling stake in Fokexima, with the transaction still in the planning stage and the valuation of Fokexima yet to be finalized [1]. - The acquisition is expected to constitute a related party transaction, as Henan Shijia is a limited partner in the fund that holds a significant stake in Fokexima [3][4]. Group 2: Fokexima's Business Overview - Fokexima, established in June 2013, specializes in the manufacturing of optical communication equipment and has developed various high-precision optical components, achieving mass production of multiple types of MT/MPO connectors [3]. - The company has seen significant valuation growth, from 80 million yuan in July 2020 to 615 million yuan in January 2025, reflecting its increasing market presence [6]. Group 3: Industry Context - The optical communication industry is experiencing rapid growth due to the rising demand for high-speed data transmission, with global shipments of optical transceiver modules expected to increase significantly in the coming years [8]. - The market is transitioning from 100G/200G interconnections to 400G/800G/1.6T, indicating a robust growth trajectory for optical components and related technologies [8]. Group 4: Henan Shijia's Performance - Henan Shijia has experienced significant revenue fluctuations since its IPO, reporting a net profit loss of 48 million yuan in 2023, but rebounding to a profit of 64.93 million yuan in 2024, driven by increased demand in the data communication market [9]. - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 1.075 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 42.4% [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The optical module market is experiencing a positive outlook, driven by the new developments and optimistic forecasts from internet cloud companies. The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to reach 40 million and 6-8 million units respectively by 2026, primarily due to changes in CSB manufacturers' architectures and increased market demand [1][4]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **Leading Companies**: - **Xuchuang** maintains its leading position in the market, while **Xinyi** has rapidly increased its market share, collaborating closely with major clients like Meta and Amazon. Revenue for leading companies is projected to reach RMB 36-37 billion in 2025 and RMB 44-45 billion in 2026, with significant potential for profit margin improvement [1][5]. - **Second-tier Companies**: - Companies like **Sorshi**, **LianTe Technology**, and **Cambridge Technology** are expected to capture market share, with the overall industry beta being revised upwards. If Sorshi secures over a million 800G orders, its profitability could significantly improve [6][8]. - **Domestic Leaders**: - Domestic leaders such as **Huagong Technology** and **Guangxun Technology** are set to benefit from increased capital expenditure in the domestic CS market, with strong performance anticipated in the second half of 2025 [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Expectations - The optical module market is expected to grow, with 800G module demand projected to rise from 35 million to 40 million units, and 1.6T modules from 5 million to 6-8 million units. This growth is influenced by collaborations like that between Google and OpenAI, which may further boost demand [4][12]. - The optical module jumpers market shows significant potential, with an estimated demand of 20 million units for 800G jumpers, translating to a market space worth hundreds of billions of RMB. Companies like **Taisheng Guangbo**, **Hengtong Optic-electric**, and **Aikangde** are expected to benefit from this market [9]. Technological Developments - **Meta's New Architecture**: Meta's MTIA architecture increases the demand for OSFP 800G optical modules and copper DAC connections, significantly impacting the CSP field. This architecture utilizes a large number of optical modules, which is expected to drive demand from major internet companies [13]. - **Copper Connections**: The role of copper connections in data center interconnectivity is crucial, with companies like **Credo** showing substantial revenue growth and plans to double capital expenditures, indicating a healthy market for copper connections [14]. Conclusion - The optical module industry is poised for growth, with strong demand for high-end products like 800G and 1.6T modules. The collaboration between major tech companies and the increasing capital expenditure in the domestic market are key drivers of this growth. Companies in both the leading and second-tier categories are expected to benefit significantly from these trends, making them worthy of investment consideration [12][19].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shijia Photon is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communication Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, while also raising matching funds [1] - Fokexima, established in June 2013, operates in the fields of optical communication equipment manufacturing, mechanical equipment research and development, and various other manufacturing sectors [1] - The transaction is still in the planning stage, and the valuation of Fokexima has not been finalized, making it uncertain whether this will constitute a major asset restructuring [1] Group 2 - The optical communication industry is experiencing rapid growth in demand for related products due to the explosion of AI large models and computing power requirements [2] - The global shipment of optical transceiver modules above 400G is projected to reach 20.4 million units in 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of 56.5% [2] - Shijia Photon reported a revenue of 1.075 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.40%, and a net profit of 64.93 million yuan, up 236.57% year-on-year, driven by the demand from the AI computing power and the rapid growth of the data communication market [2]

寻找光电板块上游物料的弹性和突破 20250610 摘要 中国 DSP 芯片市场潜力巨大，一级市场已涌现优秀企业，未来几年或有 投资机会，但 A 股上市公司尚未充分受益。关注江浙沪地区相关企业。 光源环节在光模块成本中占比高，国产化率低，随着 CPU 和 TOYO 技 术发展，市场规模将显著增长，头部企业突破后弹性空间大。 电信市场预计 2025 年触底，下半年至 2026 年宽带接入市场将迎来万 兆网络 50G PON 建设周期，有线侧投资将成重点，局端设备价值量更 高。 数通市场受益于 AI 发展迅速扩张，高端芯片需求持续提升，100G EML 仍是主力，同时推动 400G、800G、1.6T 及 ICPOIO 发展。 2024 下半年至 2025 年，硅光光源市场需求显著增长，特别是 100G CW 硅光光源，市场规模达数十亿美元，预计 2026 年 800G 将继续扩 展，1.6T 也将有显著提升。 共封装光学（CPO）将以硅光为主体，功耗逐步提升，单颗芯片价格大 幅增加，主要由于功率密度增加带动物料成本增加，同时良率下降和行 业门槛提高。 MPO 光跳线需求与光模块端口数相关，AI 集群部署密度增加 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **optical communication** industry and its developments, particularly driven by advancements in AI and new technologies from companies like **Broadcom** and **Credo** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Broadcom's TH6 Network Chip**: The release of the TH6 network chip, which supports 102T switching, significantly enhances AI data center network performance and accelerates the development of 200G/224G SerDes technology, acting as a catalyst for the AI optical communication sector [1][5]. - **Credo's Financial Performance**: Credo reported a 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and nearly 180% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and plans to increase capital expenditures, reflecting optimism about AI's future [1][7]. - **Xena's Revenue Trends**: Xena's revenue grew by over 20% year-over-year, although gross margins declined due to rising costs. Despite this, overall revenue trends indicate benefits from industry growth [1][8]. - **Fiber Optic Cable Demand**: The demand for fiber optic jumpers is robust, with companies like **Hengtai Light** and others benefiting from the rollout of 800G/1.6T technologies [1][6]. - **Emerging Technologies**: New CPU technologies and silicon photonics are expected to improve the gross margins and profitability of optical modules, with demand for 1.6T and 800G modules anticipated to rise through 2026 [1][11][12]. Notable Companies and Their Prospects - **Hengtai Light**: Recognized as a core wiring solution provider, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed optical communication solutions [1][6]. - **Taiwanese Server Manufacturers**: Companies like **Weichuang** are seeing significant revenue growth in AI servers, reflecting the overall industry's positive outlook [1][10]. - **Ciena and Akasia**: These companies are noted for their unique positions in the global long-distance data center and network transmission markets, expected to continue benefiting from industry developments [1][10]. - **New Yi Sheng and Tianfu Communication**: These companies are highlighted for their potential growth due to increasing demand from major internet firms [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **ByteDance's Spring Conference**: The upcoming ByteDance conference is expected to positively impact the communication sector, particularly for companies closely collaborating with ByteDance, such as **Guanghe Tong** [1][14]. - **IDC Sector Outlook**: The IDC sector is projected to have a positive outlook in the second half of 2025, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba and Tencent expected to yield results [1][15][16]. - **NVIDIA's New Product Launch**: NVIDIA's upcoming product releases are anticipated to enhance computing infrastructure and AI application demand, presenting investment opportunities [1][17]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call, focusing on the optical communication industry and its key players.