Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,600 - 5,700 in the short - term unless there is a further significant drop in foreign sugar prices [5][6]. - Foreign sugar prices fell back below 17 cents per pound after a brief rebound [6]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. Due to SR2601 having already factored in the bearish expectations in advance and the decline being almost complete, the price is close to the cost of imported sugar with out - of - quota tariffs. As of the end of July in the current Brazilian crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors: increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons with a production of 20.2 million tons; USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons with a production of 18.9318 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Costs**: From July 2024 to July 2025, the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs decreased overall. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and tax - paid cost was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [45]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data content is provided in the report.