Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones, possibly due to the impact of typhoons on production in Guangxi [4]. - The global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new year. Short - term external sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones [4]. - As of the first half of October in the current crushing season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar production reached 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Global sugar production increase, expected surplus in the new year, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 - 7.5 million tons, etc. [34] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, the consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][7] - **Production and Consumption Data**: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,600 - 5,700 in the short - term unless there is a further significant drop in foreign sugar prices [5][6]. - Foreign sugar prices fell back below 17 cents per pound after a brief rebound [6]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. Due to SR2601 having already factored in the bearish expectations in advance and the decline being almost complete, the price is close to the cost of imported sugar with out - of - quota tariffs. As of the end of July in the current Brazilian crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors: increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons with a production of 20.2 million tons; USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons with a production of 18.9318 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Costs**: From July 2024 to July 2025, the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs decreased overall. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and tax - paid cost was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [45]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data content is provided in the report.