交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.44万吨，同比减少10.82万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差103（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 6、预期：国内白糖主力05短 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；10月进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计1 ...

目录 | 第一章综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二章核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 白糖周报：北半球开榨 国内供应压力将增加 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，巴西甘蔗预计将逐渐进入收榨阶段，且生产乙醇更有优势，因此近期制糖比出现明显下降，巴西中南部累计产糖量为3917.9万吨，较去年 同期增加80万吨，增产预计正在兑现。目前巴西糖进入收榨阶段，巴西糖供应压力将逐渐缓解，近期国际糖价有筑底迹象，预计价格在低位震荡。 国内市场，短期国内糖厂进入开榨高峰，新榨季产量增加，后期供应销售压力将逐渐增加，但是考虑国内收紧糖浆和预拌粉的进口，且国内糖生产成 本也较高，对盘面价格有一定支撑。短期价格可能仍将有所走弱，但是预计空间不大。 【交易策略】 1.单边：巴西榨季临近收尾供应端压力缓解，近期国际糖价有筑底迹象，短期预计震荡略偏强。国内市场虽然有进口糖量超预期且糖厂开榨，销售压 力增加，但是考虑国内白糖生产成本较高且目前盘面价格已经比较低 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 数据来源：大越整理 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年8月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年10月中 国进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The domestic sugar market shows a situation where consumption is good, and the tariff on syrups has increased. However, the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the decline in foreign sugar prices pose negative impacts. The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with a short - term technical rebound possible but with limited strength, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In the 24/25 season by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, with a basis of 283 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the strength may be limited, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand in 25/26 Season**: Different institutions have different forecasts. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons [34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales in 24/25 Season**: By the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Import in October 2025**: China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The national reserve inventory is about 700 million tons, the import quota is 194.5 million tons. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5700. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing [9]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO lowers its prediction from 280 million tons to 100 million tons [4][9]. - The main contract of sugar, 01, has recently made up for losses and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and short - term short positions are advised to take profits and reduce holdings on dips [5][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and an increase in import impact due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no information provided about the previous day's review in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the 24/25 season as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, and the basis for the 01 contract is 223, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no information provided about today's focus in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, the ISO predicts a production of 1.8177 billion tons and a consumption of 1.8014 billion tons, with a surplus of 163 million tons; StoneX predicts a production of 1.9750 billion tons and a consumption of 1.9470 billion tons, with a surplus of 277 million tons [9][35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons to 1170 million tons, the import is expected to remain at 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be around 1570 - 1590 million tons [37]. - **Import and Price**: In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan/ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data There is no information provided about position data in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - ISO, StoneX, and Czarnikow predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, with estimates of 163, 277, and 740 million tons respectively [4][9][35] - As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6% [4] - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4][9] - The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, which is bearish. In 2025, China's sugar imports increased in October, while imports of syrup and premixes decreased. The cumulative sugar production and sales in the 24/25 season are as mentioned above [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,610 yuan, with a basis of 240 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions' predictions for the 25/26 season show a global sugar surplus. China's sugar production, sales, and import data for relevant periods are as described above. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [4][9] - Price: The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable. The domestic sugar price range for the 25/26 season is predicted to be 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton [9][37] - Consumption: Domestic consumption is good, and inventory has decreased. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is a long - term positive factor [7][9] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Near - term domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient than foreign sugar, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the global sugar surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Near - term foreign sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resilient. The 01 contract has strong pressure around 5500 and has declined under pressure. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, exports, and price ranges are all presented. It is estimated that the sugar production in 2025/26 will be 11.7 million tons, imports will be 5 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change will be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]