1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season is expected to shrink compared to the 25/26 season, but there is still an overall surplus. The market is affected by multiple factors, with a mix of positive and negative influences. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the sugar futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend, with the short - term 05 contract predicted to fluctuate between 5200 - 5300 [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Covrig Analytics estimates the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140,000 tons, down from 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 4.7018 million tons, cumulative sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and pre - mixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5350, with a basis of 140 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 791,400 tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main contract shows an increase in short positions, with a bearish trend [5]. - **Expectations**: With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, the market is expected to trade in a range. The short - term 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5300 [5][8]. - **Positive Factors**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Global sugar production has increased, leading to a surplus in the new season. The international sugar price has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; StoneX predicts a 2.9 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raises its surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; USDA predicts a 1.1397 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increasing by 4.7% year - on - year and consumption increasing by 1.4% [4][8]. - In China, the sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production in the 2024/25, 2023/24, and 2025/26 seasons are presented. The expected sugar production in the 2025/26 season is 11.7 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons and consumption of 15.7 million tons [32]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5132 yuan/ton with a profit of 618 yuan/ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the report.

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday [5] - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, 05, faces significant pressure above the 60 - day moving average and has fallen under short - term pressure. On Friday night, international sugar prices declined again. The low price of imported sugar suppresses the upward momentum of domestic sugar. It is expected to continue to fluctuate around 5200 [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 4.7018 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5] 2. Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, but the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5300. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. Trump agreed to the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [9] - Bearish factors: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow has raised its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. The USDA predicts that global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year in the 25/26 season, consumption will increase by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9] 5. Fundamental Data - 25/26 season supply - demand situation forecasts by institutions in the past 3 months: StoneX (November 1, 2025) predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) (November 4, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons for the 2025/26 season as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro (September 9, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons for the 2025/26 season as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from a shortage in the previous season to a surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season (January forecast), the sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons [33] - Imported raw sugar processing cost and profit: The table shows the post - tax cost (50% tariff) of processed imported Brazilian raw sugar and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026. For example, on December 9, 2025, the post - tax cost was 5132 yuan/ton, and the profit was 618 yuan/ton [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar main contract 05 has entered a short - term adjustment mode, with support around 5200, and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][7] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX 370 tons, Czarnikow 740 tons, and DATAGRO 100 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 88.3 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.16 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 44 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 9 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.82 tons [4][7] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5360, with a basis of 103 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 79.14 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 tons as global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [29] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane planting area, sugar - beet planting area, sugar - cane yield per unit area, sugar - beet yield per unit area, sugar production, and sugar imports are expected to change. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports 5 million tons, consumption 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [31] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [34] 5. Position Data - No information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous declines, the sugar futures contract SR2605 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, with some short - positions taking profits and reducing holdings, leading to a volatile rebound in the market [5][9] - The sugar market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are global sugar production increase, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window and increased import impact [7][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons (120 million tons higher than the August forecast), and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the new season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 244, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with the net position changing from short to long, but the main trend is unclear, which is also considered bullish [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance vary due to different core factors such as production increases in major producing countries and consumption growth rates [33] - **Domestic Sugar Production**: The sugar production in China is expected to reach 1.17 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with an import of 500,000 tons, consumption of 1.57 million tons, and an export of 18,000 tons, resulting in a surplus change of 82,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [38] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a global supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume [4][9]. - The current downward trend of the sugar main contract 05 is approaching the end, and there is an increased risk of short - selling at the current position. After continuous declines, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 tons to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,370 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 282 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and an increase in import pressure due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons because global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [33]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production in China are expected to change. The import volume in 2025/26 is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [35]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with good import profits due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices [38]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, with a significant decline in the sugar - making ratio recently. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak of the crushing season, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward space of the price is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: The supply - side pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing as the season nears its end. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. In the domestic market, despite high import volumes and increased sales pressure, the price is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to high production costs [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 163 tons in the 2025/26 season. Datagro lowers its prediction of the surplus to 100 tons, citing early harvests in Brazil and more cane used for ethanol production. It also reduces the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India. Meanwhile, major importers like China and Indonesia are increasing their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - **Production Forecast**: Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4,502 tons, slightly higher than in August and the second - highest in recent years [9]. - **Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while ethanol production increased [11]. - **Accumulated Production**: As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 80 tons year - on - year, despite a decrease in the accumulated cane crushing volume [13]. - **Inventory and Exports**: In November 2025, Brazil's sugar exports decreased compared to the same period last year. As of November, the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. However, the daily average export volume in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the whole month of December last year [17]. - **Thailand's Sugar Situation**: - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's sugar production increased by 128 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, sugar exports increased by 37.25% year - on - year, and from January to October 2025, exports increased by 139 tons year - on - year. The 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production and exports of 100 tons each [25]. - **India's Sugar Situation**: - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The cost of sugar production has risen, and the industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - **Crushing Peak**: As of December 11, in the 25/26 season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, with a reduction in the designed cane - crushing capacity. As of November 30, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan has both decreased compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of sugar is relatively high [36]. - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the sugar import volume in November will be about 40 tons, lower than the same period last year [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The data mainly includes the cumulative and bi - weekly cane crushing volume, sugar - making ratio, sugar production, inventory, and export volume in central - southern Brazil; the sugar production, export volume, and inventory in Thailand and India; the sugar production, sales, inventory, and import volume in the domestic market. However, the specific data has been summarized in the above - mentioned core logic analysis part [46][51][63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with varying estimates of the surplus volume [4][9][35]. - As the SR2601 contract approaches delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The current futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current round of decline is nearing its end. The risk of short - selling at the current level increases, and there may be a short - term technical rebound [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. DATAGRO has revised its surplus forecast down to 100 million tons, Czarnikow has raised its forecast to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and imported 11.55 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 256 yuan/ton, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also a bearish signal [6]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar below 15 cents per pound, and an opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, changes are expected in sugar - crop planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, and price. For example, the predicted sugar production in 2025/26 (November forecast) is 1170 million tons, and the consumption is 1570 million tons [37]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The domestic sugar market shows a situation where consumption is good, and the tariff on syrups has increased. However, the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the decline in foreign sugar prices pose negative impacts. The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with a short - term technical rebound possible but with limited strength, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In the 24/25 season by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, with a basis of 283 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the strength may be limited, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand in 25/26 Season**: Different institutions have different forecasts. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons [34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales in 24/25 Season**: By the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Import in October 2025**: China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The national reserve inventory is about 700 million tons, the import quota is 194.5 million tons. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5700. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing [9]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO lowers its prediction from 280 million tons to 100 million tons [4][9]. - The main contract of sugar, 01, has recently made up for losses and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and short - term short positions are advised to take profits and reduce holdings on dips [5][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and an increase in import impact due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no information provided about the previous day's review in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the 24/25 season as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, and the basis for the 01 contract is 223, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is negative [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no information provided about today's focus in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, the ISO predicts a production of 1.8177 billion tons and a consumption of 1.8014 billion tons, with a surplus of 163 million tons; StoneX predicts a production of 1.9750 billion tons and a consumption of 1.9470 billion tons, with a surplus of 277 million tons [9][35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons to 1170 million tons, the import is expected to remain at 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be around 1570 - 1590 million tons [37]. - **Import and Price**: In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan/ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data There is no information provided about position data in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - ISO, StoneX, and Czarnikow predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, with estimates of 163, 277, and 740 million tons respectively [4][9][35] - As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6% [4] - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4][9] - The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, which is bearish. In 2025, China's sugar imports increased in October, while imports of syrup and premixes decreased. The cumulative sugar production and sales in the 24/25 season are as mentioned above [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,610 yuan, with a basis of 240 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions' predictions for the 25/26 season show a global sugar surplus. China's sugar production, sales, and import data for relevant periods are as described above. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [4][9] - Price: The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable. The domestic sugar price range for the 25/26 season is predicted to be 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton [9][37] - Consumption: Domestic consumption is good, and inventory has decreased. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is a long - term positive factor [7][9] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.