交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。2025年8月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年10月中 国进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月25日 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。2025年8月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年10月中 国进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Near - term domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient than foreign sugar, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the global sugar surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Near - term foreign sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resilient. The 01 contract has strong pressure around 5500 and has declined under pressure. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, exports, and price ranges are all presented. It is estimated that the sugar production in 2025/26 will be 11.7 million tons, imports will be 5 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change will be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the sugar industry. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) is relatively resistant to decline compared to the continuously falling international sugar prices, and the near - term contracts of Zheng sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. However, in the long - run, the divergence between domestic and international sugar price trends is unsustainable. For short - sellers, it is recommended to lay out short positions on the 05 contract when the price rises as the 01 contract approaches delivery [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the international sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no content related to the previous day's review in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply. DATAGRO expects the surplus to decrease from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO estimates a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 252 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is considered neutral. The state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons [5][8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no content related to today's focus in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons (or 7.5 million tons in another mention); Datagro forecasts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to increase from 11.2 million tons in the October forecast to 11.7 million tons in the November forecast, while the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the import is estimated to be 5 million tons, with a surplus change of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar after tax was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [42]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific content related to position data other than the information about the main position mentioned above.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions predict a shift from balance to surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with Czarnikow raising the surplus forecast to 740 million tons and StoneX estimating a 277 million - ton surplus [5][8]. - In the short - term, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones, possibly due to high spot prices of new sugar. However, the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5][8]. - The domestic sugar market has positive factors such as good consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raises the 25/26 global sugar surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicts a 277 million - ton surplus, and ISO forecasts a 23.1 million - ton supply gap, significantly reduced from the previous prediction. As of the end of August 2025, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5760, with a basis of 303 (01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 24/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near it, which is neutral [5]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Recently, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with different surplus estimates. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance shows a narrowing gap in the medium - to - long - term [5][8]. - Price: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import: In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [5][8]. 3.5 Position Data - No detailed position data provided other than the information that the main positions are bearish and the net short positions are decreasing [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent trend of foreign sugar is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar trend is relatively strong, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month contracts. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 is unsustainable. There is increasing pressure above 5500, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases [6][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 36.016 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, sold 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5740, and the basis for the 01 contract is 241, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO expects a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX expects a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 620,000 tons (another mention is 750,000 tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 153,000 tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 420,000 tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 40,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 115,000 tons [36] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 12,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38] - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [44] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones, possibly due to the impact of typhoons on production in Guangxi [4]. - The global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new year. Short - term external sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones [4]. - As of the first half of October in the current crushing season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar production reached 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Global sugar production increase, expected surplus in the new year, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 - 7.5 million tons, etc. [34] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, the consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][7] - **Production and Consumption Data**: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent trends show weak external sugar prices while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities in the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term rebound, but in the long - term, the divergence between internal and external trends is unsustainable. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure level of 5500 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a 231,000 - ton supply gap for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis is 297 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 200,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX forecast a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics forecast a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool forecast a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is estimated to be 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons [37]. - **Import Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.